Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
000
FXUS63 KICT 151701
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1201 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Outside of some drizzle early this morning, dry conditions are
anticipated through at least Wed.
- Temps are expected to generally be near or slightly above
normal through the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows a closed off upper low
situated over Southern CA with some additional shortwave energy
extending across the Great Lakes. At the surface, cold front
extends from Southern MO into Central TX.
Some drizzle developed over the last few hours across northeast
into central KS in response to some weak isentropic lift along
the 290k surface. Area of drizzle will continue to drift off to
the southwest this morning. Surface high, currently centered
over Western Nebraska/Eastern WY, will continue to sink south
and will be situated across western KS by this afternoon. By
this evening there is good model agreement in shortwave energy
moving out of southern Manitoba and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes and will continue digging into the
Mid Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Sat. This will pull
down some unseasonably cold air for Sunday, but the really cold
readings are expected to stay northeast of the forecast area. So
after above normal temps on Sat, they will return closer to
seasonal normals for Sun.
By Mon, shortwave trough will be moving into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley with northwest flow setting up over the Plains.
Meanwhile, what is left of the western CONUS upper low will be
tracking across the Desert Southwest. Confidence is high that
above normal highs will be in place area wide on Tue with most
locations in the 70s. Warmer temps look to continue through the
end of the work week. Will continue the theme of increasing
precip chances Wed night through Thu night as the upper energy
finally lifts out of the Desert Southwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Northerly flow has resulted in VFR across the area. Winds will
remain a bit gusty through mid afternoon before diminishing
just before sunset. A general increase in mid and higher levels
clouds can be expected toward morning.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM