Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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033 FXUS63 KICT 180844 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 344 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon-evening. Marginal severe weather threat. - Severe thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon-evening, mainly along/west of the Flint Hills. - Potential for a continued active off-and-on thunderstorm pattern next week through next weekend. - Above normal temperatures probable the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from just north of roughly Highway 50 on south through far southern Kansas between about 3-11pm, along a trailing weak cold front approaching from the north. Have a feeling activity will tend to struggle given weak to NIL upper forcing. If activity can develop and sustain itself, moderate instability amidst marginal deep layer shear and decent downdraft CAPE will support mainly pulse to multi- cell storms capable of small hail and 50-65 mph wind gusts. LATER THIS EVENING-SUNDAY MORNING...Strengthening 850-700mb warm advection ahead of a low amplitude shortwave should support one or more clusterS of thunderstorms tracking east-northeast across mainly northern Kansas, primarily along/north of I-70. Marginal instability/shear combination should keep most of this activity sub- severe. SUNDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A sharpening dryline over western Kansas ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will be the focus for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon, mainly west of I- 135. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures and only modest dryline convergence, decent mid-upper forcing should be enough to initiate at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong heating and seasonably rich low-level moisture amidst very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield moderate to strong instability in the warm/moist sector. Additionally, effective deep layer shear of 40-50 kts oriented perpendicular to the dryline will support discrete supercells with any storm that can form. Marginal cloud bases should keep the primary threats as large hail and damaging winds, although lowering cloud bases and increasing low-level shear in the evening could support an isolated tornado threat in the evening with any cells remaining discrete/semi-discrete. Depending on how many storms form, a developing strong low-level jet and hefty downdraft CAPE could allow this activity to grow upscale into a thunderstorm complex during the evening, posing mainly a damaging wind threat generally east of I-135. MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...Thunderstorm development is uncertain Monday afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated subsidence, which should tend to suppress widespread thunderstorm chances. However, convergence in vicinity of a triple point progged to be somewhere across central or south-central Kansas could prove sufficient for a thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this happen, strong buoyancy amidst strengthening deep layer shear would support supercells capable of all severe hazards. TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A more synoptically evident severe weather event looks possible during this time period, as the parent western CONUS upper trough finally ejects onto the Great Plains, interacting with a very moist/unstable airmass in place across the region. Model consensus continues to highlight roughly the Flint Hills on east for the greatest severe weather potential, in vicinity of a dryline/cold front intersection. Long hodographs and strong instability will support supercells capable of all severe hazards. WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland, as another longwave trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid-America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features remains unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Aviation concerns are still expected to remain on the low side. Still looking for a very weak cold font/wind shift to move through on Sat, with latest model guidance slowing it down some and not pushing it as far south. Confidence on storms developing along it also remains low so will leave mention out for now. Looking for winds to flip around to the north at KRSL-KGBD in the 17-19z range and KHUT around 22z. There is a chance the front may not make it down to KICT. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...RBL