510
FXUS63 KMQT 011903
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
303 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty shower activity continues especially across the western
  half of the UP through the evening hours, ending late. Some
  thunder is possible.
- Patchy fog, possibly dense at times, is expected to develop
  tonight across much of the UP.
- Frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the
  next 7 days, with a break expected on Sunday and Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the first half of next week,
  then turning cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A couple features of interest will keep in spotty shower activity
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Quite apparent on
water vapor imagery and RAP analysis is a deep midlevel low moving
into northern Ontario. This is currently dragging a weak cold front
through northern MN. To the east, a weak wave rippling from NE WI
into northern lake Michigan has brought in some hit and miss, light
rain showers to the south-central UP. With dry lower levels across
the eastern UP, little by any way of accumulations are expected east
of hwy 41. Dry midlevel air is apparent on water vapor imagery
behind this wave, and more breaks in the clouds are apparent across
the western UP on satellite. However, additional convection is
firing ahead of a weak boundary that has been draped somewhere over
western Lake Superior today. Though some higher cloud tops are
apparent on visible imagery, they still remain fairly warm. Still,
though we haven`t had any thunder just yet, will not totally rule
this out given several hundred j/kg of SBCAPE analyzed over the
western UP.

Heading into the evening hours, as the cold front over MN works
eastward, the spotty convection over the western UP may organize
more into a broken line of showers and storms, reaching the central
UP by 00Z and largely falling apart while continuing its eastward
trek through the first half of the night. With quite a bit of
clearing throughout northern MN behind the front, would expect skies
to likewise quickly clear out from west to east across the UP
tonight. Winds turn calm, and with clearing skies and plenty of
ambient moisture closer to the surface, not to mention a sharp
temperature inversion apparent in model soundings, we could be
looking at a good night for patchy fog across the UP. This would be
most likely in areas where we will have picked up some rain.
Otherwise, expect a quiet night while temperatures fall back into
the lower 50s and perhaps upper 40s in some of the typically cooler
spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Expect dry conditions to return to the U.P. Sunday as the cold front
leaves the far east during the early morning hours and weak sfc
ridging returns to the area. With sfc ridging and zonal flow in the
mid-levels over the area during the day Sunday, expect a diurnal cu
field to develop over Upper MI by the afternoon hours as troughing
and warm air advection begins to make its way back over the area by
early Sunday evening. With PWATs around 0.75 inches, there is an
outside chance (around 10%) that we could see a stray lake breeze
induced rain shower or two over the central and east late in the
day. However, given the high pressure ridging at the sfc, the dry
air in the PBL should eat away any moisture that falls out of the cu
field. Should anything make it to the sfc, expect short-lived
sprinkles to light rainfall.

Moving into Sunday night, expect the mostly clear skies to
progressively give way to clouds as a cold front bringing showers
and storms approaches from northern MN. The most recent NBM run has
pushed back the timing of the showers and storms arriving over the
western U.P. late Sunday night and Monday morning. In addition, the
model consensus shows little, if any CAPE to work with and 0-6 km
bulk shear values generally less than 30 kts. Therefore, severe
weather is not expected at this time over the western U.P. Monday
and Monday evening. The cold front will slowly crawl from west to
east early this week across our area before weak high pressure
ridging returns to the U.P. Tuesday. As this occurs, expect rain
showers and thunderstorms across our area from Monday into early
Tuesday morning.

The low behind the cold front early this upcoming week will lift
towards Hudson Bay with time before being phased with an amplifying
Clipper low by the middle of next week. Strong warm air advection
from the Gulf is brought over our region ahead of the cold front of
the low`s arrival Tuesday and Tuesday night. Therefore, expect high
temperatures Tuesday to break into the 80s across the interior
areas. I could see dewpoints and RHs being lower than what`s
currently being predicted by the NBM for Tuesday; if there is less
cloud coverage than what`s currently predicted (partly cloudy skies
at the moment), then mixing in the boundary layer will be greater,
and thus dewpoints and RHs will be lower (I would wager their is
around a 50% chance of this occurring at this time). As it stands
now though, RHs are not expected to dip below 50%.

The cold front of this low begins moving into the area late Tuesday
afternoon/early Tuesday evening over the far west, with showers and
thunderstorms moving over the rest of the U.P. Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Once the cold front passes through, the vertically-
stacked low sits over northern Ontario and brings cold air advection
across our area. As this occurs, expect additional weak shortwaves
rotating around the parent low to move across the Upper Great Lakes,
bringing additional rain showers and possibly (15% chance) a
thunderstorm or two back across the area to finish out the work
week. Thus, along with the scattered rain chances, expect to see
below normal high temperatures late next week; this is reflected
well in yesterday`s 12z run of the EFI for the daytime Friday, with
some of the ensemble runs showing highs in the 10th percentile or
cooler of climatology. Therefore, we could see some unseasonably
cool daytime temperatures come late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered light rain showers continue across the UP this afternoon
and evening with a couple weak disturbances moving through this
afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. VCSH continue at SAW, but a
broken line of showers is beginning to work into the western UP with
impacts most likely at IWD and CMX. This may drop ceilings to MVFR,
and some thunder will not be ruled out at IWD over the next couple
of hours. Rain showers and associated restrictions end this evening
with clearing skies behind the cold front. However, as winds turn
light, patchy fog is expected to develop late. This is most likely
at CMX and SAW, with MVFR to IFR visiblity developing after 06Z.
There is around a 20% chance for patchy fog and associated
restrictions at IWD as well. Fog lifts after 12Z, then expect VFR
the rest of the forecast period with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior until
a cold front crawling eastwards across the lake brings southeasterly
winds of 20 to 25 knots over the higher elevation platforms and the
Lake Superior southerly nearshores Monday. Behind this, expect a
return to light winds Tuesday, before stronger winds could possibly
return with the coming of a second cold front Tuesday night into
Wednesday; expect gusts to around 20 knots from the southwest over
the western half. Moving into the latter half of next week, we could
see higher winds from the northwest as cold air advection from
Canada works in tandem with weak shortwaves dropping down across the
area to mix stronger winds aloft to the lake`s sfc.

Thunderstorms are possible across the south central and eastern
portions of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening as a weak cold
front moves through. Thunderstorm chances return from Sunday night
to early Tuesday morning as a second cold front slowly makes its way
from west to east across the lake. Additional thunder chances return
late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday as yet another cold
front pushes through from west to east across the lake. No severe
weather is expected from these storms.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP