441
FXUS66 KOTX 111007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon and evening will be windy following the passage of
a dry cold front raising concerns of isolated power outages, rough
water on area lakes, and the heightened potential for grass fires.
Another cold front is expected to bring more breezy conditions
Friday and Saturday. The weekend will be cooler along with the
chance of mainly mountain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM, DRY AND WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Today and Tonight: The passage of a dry cold front this afternoon
will produce another windy day for the Inland Northwest. A compact
surface low moving through southern British Columbia and deepening
over southern Alberta in the afternoon is a favorable pattern for
delivering strong winds to our region. Strong subsidence is
evident on water vapor imagery this morning (2 AM) off the coast
of Oregon/Washington with a distinct darkening along and behind
the cold front. Model soundings from the GFS prog a deep layer of
35 to 40kts of west winds from 900mb to 700mb from 4 PM to 9 PM.
GFS MOS guidance and wind gust output from the ECMWF ensembles are
in decent agreement that several hours of 35 to 45 mph gusts will
likely occur over the majority of eastern Washington and north
Idaho late in the afternoon and early in the evening.

Wind Advisories have been expanded into northeast Washington and
far north Idaho including Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry, Metaline, Colville, and Republic. It can be tough
to get measured winds strong enough to satisfy Advisory criteria
(sustained 30 mph or gusts of 45 mph) in Ferry, Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties. But even wind events that
may fall short of criteria frequently produce power outages and
tree damage in these counties due to the abundance of trees in
these counties.

In addition to tree damage and scattered power outages, rough
water on area lakes will be a hazard this afternoon and evening.
The aforementioned darkening on the water vapor imagery is a
precursor to deep atmospheric drying. Warm, dry, and windy
conditions will raise concerns of rapid spread of new fire
ignitions. Dry grasses and brush in places that haven`t gotten
rain recently like Grant, Chelan, and Douglas counties will be of
particular concern today. /GKoch

Wednesday: Tuesday`s cold front will be well into the Dakotas and
Minnesota by Wednesday morning. Winds region-wide will return to
more "appropriate" levels ranging from 10 to 20 mph across north
Idaho and eastern Washington with localized gusts to 25 mph in the
lee of the Cascades in places like Wenatchee, Waterville, and
Vantage. Temperatures will be close to average, too. Highs will
range from the low 70s in north Idaho to near 80 in places like
Lewiston, Moses Lake, and Omak. I guess we will call it a dry and
"wonderfully average" early June day. /GKoch

Thursday to Monday: Expect mild and dry conditions Thursday
before a pattern shift arrives late in the week across the Inland
Northwest. Winds will turn breezy on Friday in advance of
approaching low pressure, with cooler temps and chances for showers
arriving this weekend. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 30 to
40 mph will be possible for Friday into Saturday, especially across
the Cascade gaps into the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin. The
best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA
mountains, and northern Idaho from late Saturday into early next
week. After our period of above normal temps, daytime reading are
forecast to drop below normal for Saturday through Monday. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High level clouds are beginning to move in from the
west ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
quickly move through the region on Tuesday with winds increasing
around 18z then becoming strong from 21-03Z. Sustained winds 20-30
mph with gusts around 40 mph expected for most sites across the
Basin and within the aligned Cascade valleys. This includes
Wenatchee, Chelan, Ritzville, Pullman, and Spokane. The sheltered
northern valleys will experience sustained winds closer to 10 to
15 mph with infrequent gusts 20-30 mph. Conditions are expected to
remain VFR over the next 24 hours with no precipitation from the
cold front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is high for VFR skies through the period and for windy
conditions Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Confidence is high
for wind gusts to 30 mph and moderate for wind gusts in excess of
40 mph. Highest probabilities for gusts in excess of 40 mph is
around Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Douglas, and Ephrata.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  43  73  45  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  43  72  44  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        77  43  69  43  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       89  52  80  51  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  38  75  40  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      78  43  70  42  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        76  46  68  47  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  45  80  46  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  48  78  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  45  80  48  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses
     Lake Area-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$