Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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304 FXUS66 KOTX 081621 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 921 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a weak system sliding through Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures above normal will continue though much of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: While temperatures won`t be quite as warm as forecasted a few days ago, todays temperatures will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June. Dry and nearly clear skies will start the weekend with light winds. Overall, a pleasant day to get that yard work done or head to a park. Sunday through Sunday night: The forecast continues to change for Sunday as a shortwave passes over the region. The chance of thunderstorms has increased over much of the area with MUCAPE showing between 400-700 J/kg, similar to what was seen at the beginning of last week. A surface low will bring that instability with additional moisture. The cloud cover could be the limiting factor if areas cannot get the afternoon heating. At this time impacts from thunderstorms are expected to be minor (small hail, brief downpours, infrequent lightning, and possible thunderstorm outflow enhanced wind gusts). Temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler Sunday, but still remain above normal for early/mid June. Cloud cover will also increase from west to east. /KM Monday through Saturday: A transient shortwave ridge moves through the region Monday. A weather disturbance moves over the front side of the ridge bringing a 20-30% chance of showers to the north ID Panhandle mainly in the afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday the cluster analysis of the ensemble models agree on lowering heights and a more broad westerly flow. A weather disturbance moves into British Columbia and there is a 20-30% chance of showers along the Canadian border Tuesday. ECMWF ensemble is showing some breezy to windy conditions, especially Tuesday. NBM hasn`t quite caught on to it yet, and have trended winds closer to the 90th percentile of the NBM wind speeds and gusts. There is a 50% chance or higher of gusts above 30 mph across the Cascade gaps onto the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. By Thursday there is differing opinions of a trough nearing the Pac NW coast or a ridge building. It looks that sometime between Friday and Sunday a trough will move into the region. Temperatures through the week will remain above average, generally in the mid 70s to upper 80s and then will decrease as we head into next weekend with near or slightly below average temps by Saturday. Showers also come back into the forecast Saturday with the trough influence. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. An incoming weather system will spread increasing mid and high clouds into the region through tonight. The moisture deepens a bit more 12-18z Sunday for a 10-20% chance of rain showers. Sunday afternoon and evening (beyond the current TAF period) as the instability increases, the chance for rain showers increases to 20-40%, along with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through Sunday morning. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 83 56 80 54 81 55 / 0 0 10 20 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 81 53 78 53 78 53 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 Pullman 80 56 74 53 75 52 / 0 0 10 20 0 0 Lewiston 89 62 84 60 86 59 / 0 0 10 20 0 0 Colville 83 50 80 49 82 49 / 0 0 10 30 0 0 Sandpoint 79 51 75 52 75 51 / 0 0 10 30 10 0 Kellogg 79 56 76 56 74 54 / 0 0 10 20 10 0 Moses Lake 90 59 86 56 87 55 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 88 64 85 59 84 59 / 0 10 20 10 0 0 Omak 89 60 85 54 88 54 / 0 10 20 20 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$