Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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167 FXUS66 KOTX 072145 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 245 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a weak system sliding through Sunday for a small chance of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual cooling is expected next week along with a return to breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday Night: An upper ridge will remain over the region into Saturday for continued warm and dry weather. The warmth looks to peak on Saturday, with high temperatures for most locations in the 80s, which is around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Sunday the ridge weakens as a splitting and weak upper level trough swing through. While this feature is weak, it will help draw up increased moisture as precipitable water increases to 130-160% of normal, with surface based CAPE increasing to 200-700 J/KG (highest along the East Slopes of the Cascades and down around the Blue Mountains). The latest NBM paints around a 20% chance of thunderstorms in these areas, and around a 10% chance elsewhere. At this time impacts from thunderstorms are expected to be minor (small hail, brief downpours, infrequent lightning, and possible thunderstorm outflow enhanced wind gusts). JW Monday through Friday: Generally dry forecast Monday through Thursday. A brief return of shortwave ridging Monday with height falls allowing transition to a flat zonal allow peak temperatures Monday to be followed up with a gradual cooling trend Tuesday through Thursday. Disturbances either overtopping the brief shortwave ridging or moving through the flat zonal may allow for breezy conditions with low relative humidity in the daytime which could elevate fire weather concerns. Thursday night into Friday there is potential for an upper level trof to drop down from the northwest and further lower upper level heights which will allow the cooling trend to continue as well as allow for some minor mention of possible spotty showers and thunderstorms. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote VFR conditions through at least Saturday Night. Winds for most of the region will be out of the north at speeds less than 10 kts. One exception is down the Okanogan Valley where north winds will gusts to around 20 kts today. Similar gusts in the Moses Lake area will continue this morning before decreasing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least Saturday Night. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 50 83 56 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Coeur d`Alene 49 80 53 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 Pullman 50 80 54 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Lewiston 57 89 61 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Colville 43 83 50 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 30 10 Sandpoint 44 77 50 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 30 10 Kellogg 52 79 55 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 10 30 10 Moses Lake 53 90 58 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Wenatchee 59 88 64 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 Omak 53 89 59 84 54 88 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$