627
FXUS66 KOTX 111741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1041 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon and evening will be windy raising concerns of
isolated power outages, rough water on area lakes, and the
heightened potential for grass fires. Another cold front is
expected to bring more breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The
weekend will be cooler along with the chance of mainly mountain
showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM, DRY AND WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Today and Tonight: The passage of a dry cold front this afternoon
will produce another windy day for the Inland Northwest. A compact
surface low moving through southern British Columbia and deepening
over southern Alberta in the afternoon is a favorable pattern for
delivering strong winds to our region. Strong subsidence is
evident on water vapor imagery this morning (2 AM) off the coast
of Oregon/Washington with a distinct darkening along and behind
the cold front. Model soundings from the GFS prog a deep layer of
35 to 40kts of west winds from 900mb to 700mb from 4 PM to 9 PM.
GFS MOS guidance and wind gust output from the ECMWF ensembles are
in decent agreement that several hours of 35 to 45 mph gusts will
likely occur over the majority of eastern Washington and north
Idaho late in the afternoon and early in the evening.

Wind Advisories have been expanded into northeast Washington and
north Idaho including Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners
Ferry, Metaline, Colville, and Republic. It can be tough to
measure winds strong enough to satisfy Advisory criteria
(sustained 30 mph or gusts of 45 mph) in Ferry, Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties. But even wind events that
fall short of criteria frequently produce power outages and tree
damage due to the abundance of trees in these counties.

In addition to tree damage and scattered power outages, rough
water on area lakes will be a hazard this afternoon and evening.
The aforementioned darkening on the water vapor imagery is a
precursor of deep atmospheric drying. Warm, dry, and windy
conditions will raise concerns of rapid spread of new fire
ignitions. Dry grasses and brush in places that haven`t gotten
rain recently like Grant, Chelan, and Douglas counties will be of
particular concern today.

Wednesday: Tuesday`s cold front will be well into the Dakotas and
Minnesota by Wednesday morning. Winds region-wide will return to
more "seasonably appropriate" levels ranging from 10 to 20 mph
across north Idaho and eastern Washington with localized gusts to
25 mph in the lee of the Cascades in places like Wenatchee,
Waterville, and Vantage. Temperatures will be close to average,
too. Highs will range from the low 70s in north Idaho to near 80
in places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, and Omak. I guess we will
call it a dry and "wonderfully average" early June day. /GKoch

Thursday to Monday: Expect mild and dry conditions Thursday
before a pattern shift arrives late in the week across the Inland
Northwest. Winds will turn breezy on Friday in advance of
approaching low pressure, with cooler temps and chances for showers
arriving this weekend. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 30 to
40 mph will be possible for Friday into Saturday, especially across
the Cascade gaps into the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin. The
best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA
mountains, and northern Idaho from late Saturday into early next
week. After our period of above normal temps, daytime reading are
forecast to drop below normal for Saturday through Monday. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: There will be a 20 percent chance of convective showers
along the Canadian border around Newport and Bonners Ferry this
afternoon. Elsewhere, the most notable weather associated with
today`s cold front will be increasing west winds. Sustained 15 to
20kts winds with gusts to 35kts will be common for our TAF sites
including Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Spokane, Coeur d`Alene and
Pullman. Peak gusts will likely occur between 21-04z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is a low chance of visibility reductions due to blowing dust
at Moses Lake and Spokane International as winds peak late in the
afternoon.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  43  73  45  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  43  72  44  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        77  43  69  43  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       89  52  80  51  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       80  38  75  40  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      78  43  70  42  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        76  46  68  47  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  45  80  46  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  48  78  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  45  80  48  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses
     Lake Area-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$