502
FXUS65 KABQ 181731 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Hot, dry and breezy conditions will prevail across most of the
region today with areas of smoke from nearby wildfires. A few
strong to potentially severe storms are possible near the TX
border late this afternoon through this evening. A backdoor front
will move west across the area Wednesday through Thursday,
bringing much needed moisture and chances for showers and storms.
The front will create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande
Valley from late Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours.
Good chances for showers and storms will continue Thursday through
Saturday, with an increasing threat for burn scar flooding. After
a brief break from the heat, temperatures will return to normal by
Sunday and trend above normal early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The flow aloft is weakening compared to yesterday, and the lee-side
surface trough has also weakened, so winds will trend weaker today.
However, it will still be gusty, especially along and east of the
central mountain chain. The strongest winds will be found east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, where gusts will
probably reach around 40 mph.  Smoke from wildfires in the
Sacramento Mountains will travel northeastward today with impacts
potentially as far northeast as Clovis and Portales by this evening,
but most likely from northern Chaves and southern De Baca Counties
southwestward. Will issue a Heat Advisory for the Roswell area today
where the high temperature is again forecast to reach 105 degrees.

The dryline looks to become active today.  High resolution models
depict isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far
eastern plains this afternoon and evening from Quay County
southward. With CAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg and bulk shear in the 20-30
kt range, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Storm motion should be toward the northeast around 30 mph. Late this
evening, as cells over southeast areas are tapering off, scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
a gusty and moist backdoor cold front diving into the northeast
plains.  With bulk shear in the 30-45 kt range over the northeast
corner, strong to severe storms will again be possible during the
late night hours.

The moist backdoor front is forecast to surge westward to the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains on
Wednesday morning, pushing through gaps in the central mountain
chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central
valley around Albuquerque and Santa Fe.  Meanwhile, southeast areas
will feel a surge in Gulf moisture as a trough over the west coast
and tropical system moving westward over south TX and Big Bend work
in consort to strengthen southeasterly return flow into NM. As a
result of all this moisture, and perturbations in southwest flow
aloft, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast
along and east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday, with some
spottier and mainly dry/gusty cells as far west as Mount Taylor and
the Jemez Mountains.  Coverage may become numerous over northeast
areas by late afternoon with storm motion mainly toward the north
and northeast around 20-30 mph. Shear and instability again look
favorable for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, mainly along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain, and eastward across east central areas. High temperatures on
Wednesday should fall a few to around 17 degrees across the eastern
plains from today`s readings, while rising a few to several degrees
across western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Moisture advection will ramp-up Wednesday night behind the backdoor
front and Gulf moisture will be drawn northwest across the area
due to troughing along the west coast. Cooling from convection
east of the central mountain chain late Wednesday will increase
the pressure gradient after a hot day across western NM, resulting
in a strong and gusty east canyon wind into the RGV and likely
requiring a Wind Advisory. The 00z model solutions all show qpf
bullseyes overnight Wednesday across eastern NM, with the NAM
furthest west from the east slopes of the Sandias north across the
east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos. A Flash Flood Watch may be
needed for area burn scars for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night and will look for better model consensus on
placement of qpf bullseyes before issuing. Thursday is looking too
stable for deep convection, with ridging in the mid levels of the
atmosphere as an easterly wave moves south of the area.
Instability will be on the uptrend thereafter, with good chances
for showers and storms favoring northwest and north central NM
Friday as the west coast trough moves east across the
Intermountain West. High temperatures will be below normal on
Thu/Fri, especially across eastern NM, due to cloud cover and
rain-cooling. An upper level high will strengthen over the region
and be centered along the AZ/NM border from Saturday through
Monday, bringing increasing temperatures that will rise above
normal areawide by Monday. Daytime heating triggered storms are
forecast from Saturday through Monday, favoring the mountains and
bringing a threat for burn scar flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Southwest winds will increase thru the afternoon with gusts of 20
to 30 kt common at all terminals. Areas of smoke will reduce vsby
downwind of fires around Ruidoso. A dryline near the TX/NM border
will allow SHRA/TS to develop around 4pm today then move quickly
east/southeast into west TX thru 9pm. Some of this activity may
be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds. A backdoor cold
front will then surge southwest into eastern NM tonight with much
higher moisture and gusty northeast winds. Widespread MVFR low
cigs and SHRA/TS are likely behind the front for northeast NM
after midnight. Light gap winds will develop in the RGV as well
with gusts up to 25 kt from near KSAF to KABQ around sunrise. MVFR
low cigs may develop as far west as the central mt chain but
confidence is still low at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very low humidities will return to
northeast areas today, where critical fire weather conditions are
expected during the afternoon until sunset. However, fuel
moisture is thought to be too high, and ERCs from 30-65% are
thought to be too low to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Otherwise,
isolated dryline thunderstorms are forecast over the far eastern
plains this afternoon and evening, then storms will develop over
far northeast areas with a gusty and moist backdoor front tonight.
The backdoor front will push through gaps in the central mountain
chain with a moderately gusty east canyon wind from Albuquerque
to Santa Fe early on Wednesday, then a fairly strong east wind in
the same area Wednesday night. A summertime thunderstorm pattern
will develop Wednesday through the end of the week as a mid level
high pressure system over the east central US, a tropical system
passing to the south of the fire weather forecast area, and a
trough on the west coast all work in consort to draw Gulf moisture
over New Mexico. The richest moisture will be found over eastern
areas Wednesday, but it will shift gradually westward over central
areas Thursday and Friday, then moderate on Saturday. The western
fringe of the moisture will probably see dry and gusty
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  55  93  65 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  83  44  89  53 /   0   0   0  30
Cuba............................  83  52  86  57 /   0   0   5  30
Gallup..........................  85  45  91  56 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  81  49  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  87  47  91  60 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  85  51  89  60 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  89  59  89  63 /   0   0   5  30
Datil...........................  85  54  87  61 /   0   0   5  20
Reserve.........................  89  46  93  52 /   0   0   0  20
Glenwood........................  92  61  97  65 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  78  45  83  51 /   0   0   5  30
Los Alamos......................  83  60  85  61 /   0   0  20  40
Pecos...........................  84  55  82  55 /   0   0  30  70
Cerro/Questa....................  78  45  80  52 /   0   0  20  40
Red River.......................  72  41  72  46 /   0   5  30  50
Angel Fire......................  76  37  75  45 /   0   5  30  70
Taos............................  85  49  85  55 /   0   0  20  40
Mora............................  84  48  79  50 /   0   5  40  70
Espanola........................  91  56  92  61 /   0   0  10  40
Santa Fe........................  84  59  86  62 /   0   0  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  88  57  89  63 /   0   0  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  63  95  67 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  62  97  66 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  64  95  67 /   0   0   5  30
Belen...........................  97  59  98  64 /   0   0   5  30
Bernalillo......................  94  63  96  67 /   0   0  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  96  58  97  62 /   0   0   5  30
Corrales........................  94  63  96  65 /   0   0  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  96  59  97  63 /   0   0   5  30
Placitas........................  89  64  91  67 /   0   0  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  93  64  95  68 /   0   0  10  30
Socorro.........................  99  62 100  68 /   0   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  59  86  61 /   0   0  20  40
Tijeras.........................  87  59  89  63 /   0   0  20  40
Edgewood........................  88  55  89  61 /   0   0  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  52  89  56 /   0   0  20  40
Clines Corners..................  85  54  82  55 /   0   0  30  40
Mountainair.....................  88  56  89  59 /   0   0  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  89  56  90  57 /   0   0  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  93  64  94  63 /   0   0  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  86  58  85  56 /   0   0  40  60
Capulin.........................  86  51  73  55 /   5  30  50  50
Raton...........................  90  52  78  55 /   5  20  40  60
Springer........................  92  54  81  57 /   0  10  50  60
Las Vegas.......................  86  52  79  55 /   0   5  40  70
Clayton.........................  94  60  78  59 /   5  30  50  40
Roy.............................  90  58  80  58 /   0  20  50  50
Conchas.........................  98  65  88  62 /   0  10  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  95  63  85  62 /   0   5  40  50
Tucumcari.......................  98  67  88  62 /  20  10  30  40
Clovis..........................  96  67  88  63 /  20  20  20  30
Portales........................  98  67  88  63 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  99  68  90  64 /   5   0  30  40
Roswell......................... 105  72  96  68 /   5   5  20  40
Picacho.........................  98  61  89  61 /   0   0  40  50
Elk.............................  95  57  89  57 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42