159
FXUS65 KABQ 071919
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1219 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

- A cold front sharply drops temperatures and brings gusty
  northeast winds to eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. A strong easterly wind thru the gaps of the central
  mountain chain is likely into Santa Fe and ABQ near Tijeras
  Canyon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Very little change in the short term forecast, with the main
weather story being the backdoor cold front through eastern New
Mexico tomorrow afternoon. As for today, winds in eastern New
Mexico will begin to veer south and then southwesterly throughout
the afternoon. The rest of the state will see light to breezy
winds out of the west. Temperatures in eastern New Mexico will be
about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, closer to average for this
time of year. Western and central areas will continue to be
warmer than average, with Albuquerque forecast to hit 70 degrees
for the 6th consecutive day (average high is usually in the low
60s for early November).

Saturday`s backdoor cold front will begin to push through northeast
New Mexico by mid-morning, once again trending slightly earlier than
previous guidance. The front will make its way south into Chaves
county by mid afternoon, shifting winds north to northeast
throughout the eastern plains. The more favorable dynamics will
remain north and east of New Mexico, so the strongest winds with
this frontal passage will be along the TX-NM border. Wind speeds
have trended down slightly, so gusts should generally be below 30
mph for locations such as Clayton. Considering that this front
will be pushing through during the middle part of the day, have
opted to lower maximum temperatures along eastern New Mexico
closer to the NBM 25th percentile. With highs in the upper 50s,
northeast areas will be about 5 degrees below average for this
time of year. Temperatures over western and central NM will be
pretty similar to Friday`s readings.

Cold air advection will remain strong heading into the evening hours
as a reinforcing frontal push drives the backdoor cold front through
the gaps of the central mountain chain overnight. As mentioned in
the previous discussion, the center of the 1040 mb surface high will
be in the far northern Great Plains. So while there may be a modest
pressure gradient initially, the canyon gap winds along the Rio
Grande Valley should generally be below 25 mph through the early
morning hours on Sunday. Widespread freezing temperatures are
expected throughout much of the eastern plains, with lows in the mid
to upper 30s for central and western New Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

In the wake of the cold front, Sunday`s temperatures will be 10 to
15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Areas west of the
central mountain chain will see more seasonal temperatures. Winds
will veer southerly throughout the day and remain light for an
overall pleasant Sunday afternoon. As the surface high sinks
southward into Oklahoma on Sunday night, clear and calm conditions
should allow for effective radiational cooling and bring us some of
the coldest temperatures so far this season. Blended towards NBM
25th and 10th percentiles for widespread freezing temperatures
throughout the state. Much of eastern New Mexico will drop into the
20s, while northern valley areas such as Angel Fire may drop into
the single digits and low teens.

Going into next week, the upper level ridge over the western CONUS
begins to dampen and slowly move east. While we wont be seeing 590
dm H5 heights like southern California, but rising pressure
heights over New Mexico will raise temperatures back up to 15
degrees above normal during the middle of the week. Brisk westerly
flow will continue each day, bringing modest breezes to the
central highlands. Dry and pleasant conditions will prevail
through the end of the work week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions at all sites throughout the period. For eastern
sites such as Tucumcari and Roswell, winds will veer back south
and then southwest during the afternoon. Light prevailing winds of
5 to 10 kts out of the west for most other locations. Once again,
there will be low level wind shear over the Sangre de Cristo
mountains. KLVS will be one of the breeziest areas, with
southwest gusts up to 27 kts. Winds become more light and variable
past sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Lighter winds today will make for minimal fire weather concerns.
Heading into the weekend and early next week, a backdoor cold front
drops temperatures to below seasonal averages and RH values rise
slightly, keeping minimal fire concerns through the period. However,
widespread freezing temperatures on Saturday and Sunday night will
further enhance curing of fine fuels, further elevating ERCs in
eastern New Mexico. This colder and more stable airmass will also
create poor ventilation for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures trend
back up after Monday, with modest afternoon breezes during the
afternoons. Slightly gustier conditions on Tuesday may lead to a
locally elevated fire risk for parts of the central highlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  64  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  21  62  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  31  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  65  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  63  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  66  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  34  65  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  42  68  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  37  65  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  75  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  78  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  25  57  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  38  61  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  63  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  31  59  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  27  50  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  21  57   9  48 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  26  63  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  34  61  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  33  68  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  41  63  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  34  65  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  44  68  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  39  70  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  73  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  70  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  34  72  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  39  71  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  34  72  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  39  72  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  35  71  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  41  66  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  40  70  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  42  75  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  62  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  39  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  36  65  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  66  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  36  61  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  38  65  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  38  67  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  43  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  44  65  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  31  50  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  30  57  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  29  60  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  34  61  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  41  54  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  35  57  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  36  63  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  61  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  37  62  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  43  68  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  42  68  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  41  69  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  42  79  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  44  77  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  75  27  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25