Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
211 FXUS65 KABQ 041939 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 139 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - South to southwest wind gusts to 35 to 50 mph will create hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles this afternoon, especially in northeastern New Mexico. - An end to the growing season is expected for portions of the Upper Rio Grande Valley tonight into Sunday morning, as low temperatures dip below freezing, especially near the Colorado border. - Isolated showers and storms will develop across north-central to northeastern New Mexico through this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An unseasonably strong upper low over UT is starting to fill in and shift toward the central Rockies this afternoon. A very stout gradient aloft has been in place, especially over northwestern NM with a lee-side surface cyclone near the CO front range providing a healthy low layer gradient in eastern NM. Winds have started to surge up in speed, and true-to-form the strongest gusts are in northeastern areas with a few sites already verifying the recently expanded Wind Advisory. Showers and storms have been spotty and confined to the northwest to north central zones where the best upper forcing is. A few may struggle to expand southward toward I-40 as instability increases, but these should likely only produce a few brief sprinkles. Showers and storms will shift to northeastern NM early this evening, reducing even more in coverage and exiting before midnight. Winds at the surface will also decrease quickly as the boundary layer decouples around sunset. This along with clear skies will give way to optimal radiational cooling, and cooler overnight lows. The Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Warning for the upper Rio Grande valley (NMZ216). Taos proper may not quite reach the freezing mark of 32 F, but areas near the CO border will drop into the upper 20`s. Light low layer winds are forecast around dawn Sunday in most of western and central NM. On Sunday, the remnants of the central Rockies trough will have raced into Canada with a couple of additional upstream vort lobes sliding into its wake. One shortwave will dip into ID with another paralleling the west coast and dropping offshore of CA by late afternoon Sunday. This will carve out a longwave trough feature for the western ConUS, leaving southwesterlies aloft over NM. Speeds aloft will average about 15-25 kt in the 500-700 mb layer Sunday, higher than weeks past, but considerably less than today`s speeds. This will keep light to moderately breezy conditions in the afternoon forecast for Sunday while near to slightly above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies prevail. A moist backdoor front will slide into northeastern NM Sunday night, potentially spawning a few showers and thunderstorms before dawn Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 By the daytime Monday, the aforementioned vort lobe offshore of CA will be slowing and weakening with lighter southwesterlies persisting over NM with a few weak ripples and shortwaves embedded. The morning`s backdoor front will begin to retreat northward, but enough surface/moisture convergence will continue to initiate showers and storms over eastern zones through Monday afternoon and evening. The front will get set back in motion to the west and south late Monday night into Tuesday, pushing more surface convergence and low layer moisture advection toward the central mountain chain, however this second push appears to be weaker than previous day`s depictions from forecast models. POPs may have to be trimmed back in western zones Tuesday afternoon if this model trend continues with subsequent runs, but going into Tuesday night it does appear moisture will advance closer to the Continental Divide. This will set the stage for scattered showers and storms between the Divide and the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon. By this time the offshore CA low gets lost inland with the southwesterlies, and high pressure will start to swell over the Gulf coast. Into Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the upper high will start to reach northwest toward NM while a deep Pacific Northwest low drops closer to the west coast. Meanwhile tropical cyclone activity is still depicted in many forms among model solutions in the far eastern Pacific. A lot of variance among the placement and interaction of each of these features is keeping low confidence in forecast details for Thursday and Friday, but the consensus is for low rain potential areawide, possibly favoring northwestern zones. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An upper low over Utah is creating windy conditions over New Mexico. Gusts approaching 35 kt have prompted an Airport Weather Warning for KABQ, and sites in northeastern NM such as KRTN, KLVS, and KCAO will likely reach 45 kt. A few weak showers and fleeting thunderstorms will favor north central New Mexico this afternoon before dwindling over northeastern areas this evening. Winds will quickly decrease at the surface around sunset, but will stay strong aloft over eastern New Mexico, keeping low level wind shear going there through mid morning Sunday. Lighter breezes, mostly clear skies, and VFR conditions will prevail during the day Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Windy conditions are ongoing due to an unseasonably stout upper low over UT. These stronger winds are coupled with some lower humidity values (15-20%) in western NM where the dry slot is working into the state, but fuel moisture and high Energy Release Components should preclude any fire weather concerns through sunset when winds will subside. Cooler temperatures tonight will lead to a few freezes and the seasonal onset of fuel curing for a few north central and northwestern zones tonight and Sunday morning. Dry and much more tranquil conditions will follow during the day on Sunday. Going into the first half of the work week, moist backdoor frontal pushes will arrive from the northeast, keeping temperatures seasonable and scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Storms will begin in eastern zones Monday, pushing toward central ones Tuesday, and will then make their way toward the Continental Divide by Wednesday. Wetting rainfall opportunities still appear to be scattered, if not spotty and sparse before a potentially drier end of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 71 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 69 32 73 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 37 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 34 70 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 69 38 74 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 35 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 36 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 37 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 39 76 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 63 34 66 / 5 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 44 69 46 70 / 10 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 41 71 42 70 / 20 0 5 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 35 67 39 68 / 20 0 0 20 Red River....................... 31 62 31 62 / 20 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 23 65 21 65 / 20 0 5 30 Taos............................ 35 70 36 71 / 10 0 0 20 Mora............................ 37 70 37 66 / 20 0 10 30 Espanola........................ 40 75 42 77 / 10 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 42 72 44 73 / 10 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 76 42 77 / 10 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 50 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 46 78 47 81 / 0 0 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 46 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 47 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 49 80 48 82 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 47 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 48 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 52 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 44 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 41 73 44 74 / 5 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 76 39 76 / 10 0 0 30 Clines Corners.................. 44 72 45 71 / 10 0 10 30 Mountainair..................... 44 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 46 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 55 78 55 79 / 0 0 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 47 72 46 72 / 5 0 10 30 Capulin......................... 41 72 38 64 / 20 0 20 20 Raton........................... 40 75 38 68 / 20 0 20 20 Springer........................ 42 78 39 71 / 20 0 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 43 73 40 68 / 20 0 10 30 Clayton......................... 52 81 47 67 / 10 0 20 20 Roy............................. 47 77 43 69 / 20 0 10 30 Conchas......................... 55 86 50 77 / 10 0 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 52 82 50 76 / 10 0 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 57 86 52 77 / 10 0 20 20 Clovis.......................... 57 86 57 81 / 0 0 20 20 Portales........................ 58 87 57 83 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 57 85 55 80 / 0 0 20 20 Roswell......................... 59 89 59 85 / 0 0 10 10 Picacho......................... 55 84 53 80 / 5 0 10 20 Elk............................. 53 79 51 77 / 5 0 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227>230. Freeze Warning from late tonight through Sunday morning for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52