593
FXUS65 KABQ 042033
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
133 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Nuisance northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel
  across east central New Mexico Saturday, especially for large
  and high- profile vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 125 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that dry air has already
established itself over the region in the wake of last night`s
winter storm. As a result, skies have been clearing from west to
east throughout the morning. Denser, broken to overcast skies will
remain over eastern New Mexico for the next few hours, but should
continue lifting and clearing throughout the afternoon. Overall,
high temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees below average,
particularly in eastern New Mexico where cloud cover will limit
diurnal heating and keep highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

With skies clearing overnight for most areas, effective radiational
cooling will drop low temperatures into the teens and single digits
for many valley locations. Shifted temperatures down closer to MOS
guidance for tonight`s lows, resulting in single digit temperatures
forecast for Gallup and Grants, and even dipping below the negatives
for Angel Fire. Fresh snow and wet antecedent conditions resulted in
some fog and freezing fog developing earlier this morning. For
tomorrow however, the confidence for fog and low clouds is very low.
Despite there still being some snow and moisture, drier conditions
overall and clear skies will hinder fog formation. Current ensembles
and models are showing a weak signal for some visibility impacts in
northern valley areas near Dulce and in east-central areas along the
Estancia valley. Would also not be surprised if a few low clouds
form in the lower Pecos River valley near Roswell. For the most
part, the chances of visibility impacts due to fog and freezing fog
are less than 10% for these areas.

Flow becomes more zonal on Friday and wind speeds aloft increase as
an upper level jet digs into the central Rockies. Some breezier 20
to 25 kt winds will be common over the central highlands and east-
central New Mexico during the afternoon on Friday. Highs will climb
back up to near average for eastern areas on Friday, while central
and western areas remain on the cooler side. A line of mid and high
clouds will stream across the region during the afternoon and bring
some scattered cover to northern and central parts of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Hopefully you guys enjoyed the snow earlier this week, because we
are now entering what I like to call the "dry December doldrums."
High pressure ridging begins to build over the eastern Pacific this
weekend, extending its reach into parts of the Desert Southwest by
early next week. As pressure heights rise, temperatures will climb
back up to above average throughout the Land of Enchantment. This
upper level pattern will also be conducive to a persistent northwest
flow that will bring about breezy conditions each afternoon. A
shortwave perturbation embedded within the overall flow will allow
for a 110 kt 300 mb level jet to dig into northern New Mexico on
Saturday. With 40 to 50 kt 700 mb winds present, conditions will be
quite gusty along the mountain tops of the central mountain chain.
Some of these stronger winds should be able to mix down to the
surface during the afternoon, creating some 30 to 35 kt gusts for
the central highlands and east-central New Mexico. Downsloping winds
will also serve to further warm the environment, bringing highs into
the low 60s for parts of the eastern plains.

Winds decrease heading into the early part of next week, but the
central highlands will still be the "breeziest" area (15 to 25 mph).
Dry, clear, and sunny conditions will warm temperatures up a few
degrees each day. By Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures may
be as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average and up into the
60s and lower 70s for parts of eastern New Mexico. As a result,
any snowfall that is left will be mostly melted away for areas
outside of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Cloud cover has been eroding from west to east throughout the
morning, already becoming clear at KFMN and KGUP. Conditions have
returned to VFR for KABQ and KAEG, with only a few lingering low
clouds. More scattered to broken cloud cover remains in north
central New Mexico, but conditions should become VFR for KSAF in
the next half hour. The denser cloud cover will persist in eastern
New Mexico for at least another couple of hours, with MVFR low
clouds at KTCC, KROW, and KCAO through noon. Eastern sites should
climb into the VFR category by around mid-afternoon. Winds will
shift from the west at most locations this afternoon and become
more light and variable overnight. Currently, there is very low
confidence for low clouds and fog for tomorrow morning, but would
not be surprised if some valley areas such as the Pecos see some
lower visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Minimal fire weather concerns throughout the period. While dry and
breezy conditions are expected during the afternoons this weekend
and early next week, yesterday`s precipitation will keep ERCs at or
below the 50th percentile for this time of year. Gusts in the
central highlands may reach as high as 35 to 40 kts on Saturday
afternoon, but minimum humidity values will still be in the 30 to
40% range. Humidities trend down into the 20% range by mid next
week for the southern half of the state. At the same time, high
temperatures will be climbing each day, up to 15 degrees above
average on Wednesday. Outside of the breezier Friday and Saturday
afternoons, ventilation will remain poor for most areas throughout
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  19  41  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................   9  38   9  42 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  13  39  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................   8  45  16  50 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  14  42  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................   9  47  17  52 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  15  43  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  22  47  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  18  44  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  16  53  18  60 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  19  57  22  62 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................   8  34  10  36 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  18  38  21  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  17  41  19  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  12  35  15  39 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................   9  31  10  32 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  -6  35   6  38 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................   9  36  11  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  15  42  16  44 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  16  45  17  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  21  39  22  43 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  18  40  18  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  26  43  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  22  45  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  19  47  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  23  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  18  48  18  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  21  47  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  16  47  17  53 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  21  47  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  18  47  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  23  42  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  23  47  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  23  53  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  19  41  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  21  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  17  42  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  14  44  17  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  19  41  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  18  44  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  21  45  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  25  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  25  47  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  15  44  16  50 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  13  48  13  51 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  11  49  12  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  15  47  18  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  20  48  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  16  48  17  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  19  52  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  25  50  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  20  54  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  26  55  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  27  56  22  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  24  55  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  23  62  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  24  58  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  22  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25