576
FXUS65 KABQ 190534 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning
  in addition to localized heavy rainfall will accompany
  thunderstorms each day. Burn scars remain the most susceptible
  to flash flooding.

- There is a moderate heat risk for lower elevation areas of the
  Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains each afternoon Saturday
  through at least Monday where highs climb into the upper 90s to
  near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Current surface observations indicate a pretty moist environment
remains over eastern New Mexico, with widespread dewpoints in the
60s. Thunderstorms, fueled by moist upslope flow from the southeast,
are already developing over the Sacramento Mountains early this
afternoon. Models continue to be in very good agreement of
thunderstorm activity ramping up around the Ruidoso burn scar areas
through 5 PM MDT. With precipitable water content once again
hovering at around 1.20 inches and ample CAPE between 1000 and 2000
J/kg, these storms look to be efficient rain producers. As a result,
there is high confidence for flash flooding impacts if a
thunderstorm were to develop over one of the sensitive scars.
Current consensus from recent guidance is for rain amounts between
0.25 and 0.75 inches, but rainfall rates may be as high as 2 inches
per hour. Locally heavy rainfall amounts may exceed 1.5 inches if a
strong enough storm is able to take foot, creating rapid rises in
the Rio Ruidoso.

Monsoonal moisture in place throughout the rest of the state will
allow for the development of scattered terrain-based thunderstorms,
particularly along the Continental Divide and south of I-40.
Northeast storm motions may be able to take some shower activity
into the Rio Grande Valley and the ABQ metro this afternoon. A
recent trend to note among guidance is greater shower activity over
northeastern New Mexico. As the upper level high stretches across
the New Mexico border from Texas, subsidence should be able to quell
convection over the eastern plains. However, with less influence
from the upper high over northeastern areas and with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, there is increasing confidence of orographically
forced storm activity along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo`s. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
ample instability for storms to quickly strengthen and produce
heavy rain, but may lack the necessary shear to sustain themselves
for hail and damaging winds.

Tomorrow, the upper high continues to strengthen westward over New
Mexico. Monsoon moisture will once again lead to thunderstorm
development along the high terrain. Additionally, it appears the
subsidence may be able to hinder convection over southeast New
Mexico, including the Sacramento Mountains. Rising pressure heights
will also allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and
lower 100s for parts of the southeast plains. The main corridor for
convective activity will be along the Continental Divide and with
NNE storm motions. A weak shortwave over the central Rockies may be
able to invigorate more storm activity over the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and northeast areas during the late afternoon. Some
storms may be able to form during the early evening in east
central New Mexico during the early evening hours as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the beginning of next week, the center of the 593-595 dm
H5 high continues to mosey deeper west into New Mexico.
Meanwhile, the upper low over Souther California steadily weakens.
This will allow for the influx of monsoonal moisture from the
south to weaken and push further west. As a result, PWATs for
Sunday look to be near or even below average around New Mexico.
The main corridor for thunderstorms will be over the southern and
western high terrain on Sunday afternoon. The upper high then
moves back east and stretches over the majority of the southern
United States. Greater moisture looks to return to the area early
in the work week as a new lobe of high pressure begins to
establish itself over the Southwest. Slow moving, terrain-based
thunderstorms will be common each afternoon through the middle of
the week. With PWATs climbing back to above average for this time
of year, flood watches look likely for the sensitive burn scars in
the Sacramento mountains and Sangre de Cristo Mountains during
the afternoons. With rising pressure heights towards the end of
the week, temperatures look to rise into the mid and upper 90s
throughout much of the state, creating a moderate Heat Risk for
lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Remnant showers persist over portions of central and western NM
this hour, with one batch nearing KSAF over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Otherwise, skies slowly clear thru tonight and Saturday morning.
Saturday`s round of thunderstorms will again favor development
over the central and western mountains with less activity expected
over the Sacramento Mts near KSRR relative to areas further west
and north. Thunderstorm activity will again steadily move over
surrounding lower elevation areas thru the late afternoon and
evening hours with lower chances for storms further east toward
the TX border. Prevailing southerly to southeasterlies persist
thru southeastern and east-central NM, including at KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Rich monsoonal moisture will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum
for the forecast period. Slow moving thunderstorms will develop
along the high terrain each afternoon and drift towards surrounding
lower elevation areas. Eastern New Mexico, which has seen plenty of
rainfall over the last several days, looks to get a break in storm
activity over the weekend. Higher chances for storms will occur
along central and western areas, with gusty and erratic winds, hail,
and frequent lightning being the main concerns. Recent burn
scars will also be at risk of flash flooding, with many of these
storms producing efficient rainfall rates of an inch per hour. More
numerous shower activity looks likely towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  94  63  93 /  10   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  49  90  48  91 /  20  30  10  20
Cuba............................  59  88  59  89 /  30  30  20  20
Gallup..........................  55  88  55  89 /  20  40  30  40
El Morro........................  57  83  57  85 /  40  70  50  70
Grants..........................  57  86  55  88 /  30  60  40  60
Quemado.........................  60  83  58  85 /  50  70  50  80
Magdalena.......................  62  85  62  86 /  60  60  30  60
Datil...........................  57  82  56  84 /  60  70  50  70
Reserve.........................  56  88  55  90 /  50  70  50  80
Glenwood........................  60  92  59  94 /  60  70  40  70
Chama...........................  49  83  49  85 /  20  50  20  30
Los Alamos......................  61  83  62  85 /  30  60  20  40
Pecos...........................  58  85  59  87 /  30  50  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  55  83  55  86 /  30  70  20  40
Red River.......................  47  74  47  77 /  30  70  20  50
Angel Fire......................  43  78  43  80 /  30  70  20  50
Taos............................  55  85  53  88 /  30  50  20  30
Mora............................  52  82  53  85 /  30  70  30  40
Espanola........................  61  91  61  94 /  30  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  62  87  62  88 /  30  40  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  61  90  61  92 /  30  40  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  92  67  93 /  40  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  68  94 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  95  67  96 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  68  95 /  40  30  30  10
Belen...........................  65  95  64  96 /  40  30  20  10
Bernalillo......................  67  95  67  96 /  40  30  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  64  95  64  96 /  40  30  20  10
Corrales........................  67  95  68  96 /  40  30  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  65  95  65  96 /  40  30  20  10
Placitas........................  65  91  65  92 /  40  30  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  67  94  68  95 /  40  30  30  10
Socorro.........................  68  95  67  97 /  60  30  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  87  61  89 /  40  40  30  20
Tijeras.........................  62  88  62  90 /  40  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  57  88  57  90 /  30  40  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  90  55  90 /  40  40  30  20
Clines Corners..................  58  83  59  85 /  30  40  30  20
Mountainair.....................  60  87  59  88 /  50  40  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  59  86  60  88 /  50  40  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  66  91 /  40  30  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  58  82  60  83 /  30  40  10  50
Capulin.........................  56  85  56  85 /  40  70  20  30
Raton...........................  55  89  54  90 /  40  60  20  40
Springer........................  57  89  55  92 /  30  50  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  56  85  56  88 /  30  50  30  30
Clayton.........................  65  92  65  94 /  20  30  20  10
Roy.............................  60  88  60  90 /  30  30  30  10
Conchas.........................  66  96  67  98 /  30  20  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  64  92  65  94 /  30  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  94  66  95 /  10  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  67  96  68  96 /  10  10  10   0
Portales........................  68  97  69  97 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  96  69  98 /  20  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  70 100  71 100 /  10  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  62  91  64  93 /  20  30  10  20
Elk.............................  60  89  61  90 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24