809
FXUS61 KAKQ 150133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
833 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the region tonight before a cold
front crosses the area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns
early next week before another system potentially impacts the
region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 833 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds continue to increase tonight as a warm front lifts
  across the region.

High pressure lingers off the Southeast coast this evening. A warm
front is draped across the Ohio River Valley, with the parent low
currently approaching the western Great Lakes area. Cloud cover has
gradually increased over the past few hours, with most of the local
area seeing mid-level cloud cover overhead at this time. With the
increasing mid-level moisture, a few weak showers have been able to
sprout across the area, though the chance for measurable rainfall
remains low do the very dry low-levels. Temperatures are currently
in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with winds generally light light from
the south to southwest. Cloud cover and light winds will help keep
any radiational cooling at bay, with temperatures forecast to drop
into the lower to mid 40s. The aforementioned warm front is progged
to move through the forecast area early tomorrow morning, which will
bring in increasing dew points and temperatures after sunrise
tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and mainly dry this weekend.

- Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind a dry frontal
  passage Sunday will result in the potential for dangerous fire weather
  conditions.

Surface high pressure becomes suppressed to the south as low
pressure over the Great Lakes moves east. Westerly/downsloping flow
will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s for inland areas but
the Eastern Shore will be in the low/mid 60s with winds off the bay.
Latest guidance continues to trend drier with any light precip
across the north late Saturday night into early Sunday with QPF on
the order of a trace to a few hundredths. Much warmer across the
area Saturday night with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Guidance maintains some slight timing differences with the dry
frontal passage on Sunday. Regardless, gusty west winds and
plummeting dew points are expected to overspread the area on Sunday.
Westerly/downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
late morning through mid to late afternoon. At the same time, dew
points drop in the 20s and 30s with temperatures in the 60s to low
70s, resulting in RH falling to 20-30%. Cold advection strengthens
Sunday night with low temps falling into the 30s for most of the
area.

Not as windy on Monday but still breezy through mid afternoon,
especially along the coast. Temperatures range from near 60 degrees
SW to around 50 degrees NE during the afternoon. Clouds increase
Monday night ahead of the next system with lows in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Progressive system impacts the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Guidance has come into a bit better temporal agreement regarding a
fast-moving system impacting the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Not expecting much in the way of beneficial rainfall with this fast
moving system. High pressure builds into the area for the mid week
period with temperatures near seasonal norms. Another system
potentially impacts the area Thursday night with a chance for
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through tomorrow
evening, with only mid-level clouds expected overnight and no
precipitation forecast. The main aviation weather concern will
be transient LLWS overnight between 03Z-10Z across all terminals
aside from SBY. Despite the short duration, have decided to
include mention of the LLWS in this round of TAFs. Otherwise,
surface winds will generally be variable over the next few
hours before shifting to the SW and increasing to 5-10 kt as a
warm front lifts through the area overnight.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday. There is a chance for some
light showers as well as potentially degraded flying conditions
on Saturday night across northern portions of the area,
potentially including SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected into Saturday before a cold
  front brings increasing winds/building waves Saturday night
  through Monday.

- A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters N of
  Parramore Island Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

Generally light winds of 5-10 kt prevail across the local waters
this afternoon with high pressure centered southwest of the region.
Winds turn to the W and then SW this evening into tonight,
increasing to 10-15 kt for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N
of Parramore Island. S of Parramore Island, a 6-12 hr period of 15-
20 kt winds is possible after midnight as a quick-moving disturbance
aloft moves through. Will hold of on SCAs at this time with seas
expected to remain below 5 ft, along with the brief nature of this
event. Lighter winds and benign marine conditions are then expected
from later Saturday morning through most of the afternoon hours.

A strong cold front will approach the area from the W Saturday
night, crossing the waters Sunday afternoon. Elevated SW winds (15-
25 kt) develop Saturday night ahead of the front, veering to the NW
Sunday evening and overnight behind the front. Small Craft
Advisories are very likely from Saturday night through Monday in
both the pre-frontal and post-frontal regimes. Model guidance has
trended upward with the winds later Sunday into Monday as strong CAA
funnels over the waters, with widespread wind gusts of 30-35 kt on
the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. The pressure gradient will be
most compressed across the northern coastal waters and wind
probabilities (from both the EPS and our local probs) for frequent
Gale-force wind gusts have increased significantly to 50-80% in this
area, compared to yesterday`s forecast package when they were less
than 20%. Therefore, have issued a Gale Watch for ocean zones ANZ652
and ANZ560 from 18z/1 PM Sunday through 21z/5 PM Monday where the
best potential for 40 kt wind gusts resides. Winds diminish Monday
night into the middle of next week with sub-advisory conditions
expected.

Seas average 2-3 ft through Saturday. With the increased winds
Saturday night through Monday, seas build to 3-6 ft, but the
offshore wind direction should prevent them from building too high.
Waves in the Chesapeake Bay prevail in the 2-3 ft range or less,
other than 3-4 ft Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...LKB/SW