941
FXUS61 KAKQ 282320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
620 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Generally
cool weather continues through next week. The next chance for light
rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may
start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the
Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1255 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cold and breezy today with wind chills only warming into the 30s
  during the afternoon.

- Very cold tonight with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper
  20s to lower 30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure in Quebec with strong,
~1034 mb high pressure building into the central CONUS. Temps as
of 1255 PM ranged from the lower-mid 40s for most. Highs will
only make it to the lower- mid 40s (most in the mid 40s) even
though it will be mostly sunny (w/ a bit more clouds north). In
addition, gusty WNW winds to 25-35 mph (highest on the eastern
shore) will keep wind chills no higher than the 30s throughout
the day. Winds quickly diminish tonight (and become light/calm
inland) as the strong high settles over the area. As a result,
radiational cooling conditions will be ideal for a decent
portion of the FA. This will lead to the coldest night of the
season so far. Upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and
perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s
elsewhere (inland). Lows will fall into the upper 20s-30F near
the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued cool and dry weather with less wind on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night.

Still cool with lighter winds on Sat as the high remains over the
area. Forecast highs are in the 40s (most in the mid 40s) with lows
Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast
(due to the high moving offshore allowing winds to become light out
of the S-SE). Low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to
the Great Lakes from Sat night into Sun. This will bring an increase
in clouds to the area Sat night and Sunday from west to east.
Precipitation likely remains to our west through sunrise on Sun as
the low levels will initially be very dry. Light precipitation
should begin to reach the ground in the Piedmont by early Sun
afternoon and then across the remainder of the area later Sun
afternoon into Sun evening. This should mainly be in the form of
rain, but there is a nonzero chance of light sleet/freezing rain
across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun morning if precipitation
begins earlier than expected. For now, confidence in this is low, so
only have rain in the forecast. The other forecast challenge on
Sunday will be temperatures. Despite SSW winds across the FA, there
will be a decent temperature gradient with only 40s NW of Richmond
and lower-mid 60s SE (where there will be more sunshine). The
greatest uncertainity in forecast temps is from the the south-
central VA Piedmont to Richmond with solutions ranging from the 40s
to 50s depending on the arrival of clouds/precip. Will keep NBM
temps in the forecast for now. Any rain moves offshore by Sun night
as the low moves into SE Canada, its trailing cold front moving to
our southeast. High pressure briefly builds over the Midwest and Mid-
Atlantic on Mon, bringing dry conditions and highs in the mid-
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through the week inland with occasional days
  of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC.

- A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater
  than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across
  portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night into Tue evening (80-90% PoPs). However,
the exact track of the low and amount of cold air in place remains
uncertain. The general model consensus is for the high to quickly
retreat to Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia by early Tue morning
before moving offshore by Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, model guidance
continues to show a Miller B type of setup as a weak surface low
develops over the Southeast on Mon night before energy transfers to
a coastal low that is progged to track from the Carolina coastal
plain NNE to the northern Mid-Altantic/Northeast coast from Tue AM-
Tue evening.

Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo
for snow for the local area), the Miller B nature of the low, and
the primary low tracking along the coast (or inland), this will
likely not be a snow event. Instead, any cold air would likely be
shallow, resulting in predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps
are cold enough) or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the
onset if cold air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from
the forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the
Piedmont late Mon night into early Tue morning before temps warm
above freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. NBM probs for
0.01" of freezing rain were 15-20% across the NW Piedmont with
negligible probs for 0.1" of freezing rain.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. While winter weather
chances are low, confidence is increasing in widespread rain. EPS
probs for >1" of rain were 70-90% across SE VA/NE NC with probs for
>2" of rain around 10-20%. The NBM probs for >1" of rain were a bit
lower but still 30-50% across SE VA/NE NC. As such, a widespread
wetting rain is expected with 0.5-1" across the NW portions of the
area and 1"+ possible across SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, WPC has
maintained a Marginal ERO on Tue due to the potential for locally
heavy rainfall of up to around 2" across SE VA/NE NC. Additionally,
there is a chance for some additional precip on Fri (predominantly
rain), but confidence is low.

Highs are expected to range from around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue,
mid-upper 40s Wed, upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu, and 40s Fri.
Lows range from the upper 20s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F SE
Mon night. However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with
the Tue system, and therefore, temps may be a bit warmer Mon night.
Lows in the mid-upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE Tue night and mid-upper
20s inland with low-mid 30s across far SE VA/NE NC are expected Wed
and Thu nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow evening, with no
rainfall expected and mostly clear skies forecast. Surface winds
will continue to trend downwards tonight and may become light and
variable overnight. Winds remain light tomorrow and will veer to the
northeast during the day.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sat night, with increasing
clouds. Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day
inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun
night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight
restrictions are possible. Winds become N behind the front
overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated
through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more
widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EST Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight due to
  elevated W-NW winds.

- Benign conditions return Saturday into early Sunday with high
  pressure, then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday
  night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday
  into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end
  gales possible.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones
this aftn with W-NW winds averaging 15-25 kt. The pressure
gradient will remain compressed over the local area through
tonight. In combination with continued cold air advection,
elevated winds are expected to persist into tonight and early
Saturday morning. SCAs are in effect through 7 PM for the upper
rivers, 10 PM for the lower James and Currituck Sound, and 4 AM
Sat for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Given the
predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas
are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm
offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range,
with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bay-side of the VA
Eastern Shore. The high settles near area early Saturday with
winds gradually decreasing by sunrise, and becoming, followed
by light and variable winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds
become southerly late Saturday night and then SW Sunday as a
cold front approaches from the W and the high shifts well
offshore to our NE. Don`t expect to meet SCA criteria Sunday,
but a few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible in the northern coastal
waters. A period of SCAs are then likely late Sunday night
through Monday morning as northerly winds increase to 20-25 kt
behind the front. Seas build to 4-5 ft offshore, with 3-4 ft
waves in the Bay.

Another cold front and accompanying low pressure system are expected
to impact the waters Tuesday. A period of SCAs is likely Tuesday
into Wednesday, with some model guidance suggesting some potential
for gales later Tuesday/early Wednesday. Local wind probs for
frequent >34 kt gusts are fairly low and mainly confined to the
Ocean (10-25%. There are some significant timing differences as
well, the ECMWF being much slower than the GFS and the exact
evolution remains quite uncertain as the low may move directly
through the region, complicating the wind direction and speed
forecast in addition to timing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...LKB/SW