018
FXUS61 KAKQ 111733
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1233 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and chilly conditions are expected today. High pressure
builds south of the area later this evening into Wednesday, before a
dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High
pressure builds back into the area Friday into the weekend. Another
frontal system potentially crosses the area later Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, chilly, and breezy conditions today.

High pressure builds over the SE CONUS later today into tonight,
leading to dry conditions and sunny skies this afternoon. It will
remain breezy today, with west winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph at
times. Today will also be the chilliest day of the forecast period
with high temperatures staying in the 40s. Not quite as cold tonight
due to increasing mid-level cloud cover and and elevated WSW breeze,
lows will generally range from the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate back closer to average on Wednesday.

- A dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into early
Thursday.

Remaining dry on Wednesday with high pressure to our south.
Temperatures will rebound, with highs climbing to around 60 for most
locations. A cold front approaches and crosses the area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. With a very dry airmass parked over the
area, not expecting any rain with this front. Temperatures on
Thursday will run 1-2 degrees cooler compared to Wednesday, but
still remaining seasonable with highs ranging from the mid 50s to
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next week,
bringing the next chance for rain.

High confidence remains in northwesterly flow aloft through the end
of the week into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will
remain parked over the SE CONUS. This will continue to support
seasonable temperatures and dry weather. Another frontal system
approaches later Sunday into Monday, bringing our next chance for
some light rain. Moisture appears fairly limited at this time with
this system (00z EPS and GEFS each show ~0.10"). There will also be
a decent warm up out ahead of this front on Sunday as southerly flow
increases. Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 60s to around
70 for most inland portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 18z/11 TAF period. Mostly
clear skies this afternoon, then increasing mid-level cloud
cover (esp at RIC and SBY) overnight as a disturbance aloft
passes over the area. Mostly clear skies expected again
tomorrow. West winds will be gusty (20-30kt) through late
afternoon, then turning to the SW and diminishing to 10-15kt
overnight. SW winds become gusty again during the day tomorrow
with gusts 20-25kt. There is also the potential for a brief
period of LLWS at ECG early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR/dry tonight through Saturday with breezy
conditions during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early this
morning, with a transition to Gale Warnings at 4AM across the Bay,
Ocean, and Sound.

- Winds drop off slightly, but remain elevated late Tuesday-
Thursday with SCAs likely.


Early morning weather analysis shows a strong 990 low pressure
system across northern Maine and a 1032 high over the Deep South.
The pressure gradient from these two systems have tightened allowing
winds to increase to 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt across
all waters. Seas continue to remain low with 2 to 3ft across the bay
and 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean. Colder and much drier air is
continuing to move across the area this morning. As it moves over
across the area and moves over relatively warmer seas it will lead to
optimal mixing. the Small Crafts in effect will transition to Gale
warnings at 4AM and last through the early evening hours of today.
Confidence continues to remain the highest over the coastal waters
(gusts 35-40 kt), but still anticipate marginal Gale conditions over
the Bay/Sound. Due to the offshore wind directions this will keep
sig Wave heights in the 4-6 ft range with 3-5 ft waves in the Bay
through this afternoon. Recent model guidance continues to show
winds decreasing below Gale conditions around 18z in the Bay/Sound
but these Gale warnings maybe dropped sooner depending on speed of
the wind. However, if these Gales are dropped they will be replaced
by SCA. By this evening and through tonight winds will continue to
average between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt as the winds
turn out of the southwest. Elevated west winds continue through
Wednesday and into Thursday with seas still mainly 4-5 ft and waves
2-4 ft in the Bay before finally dropping below SCA thresholds
Thursday evening/night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

It will be dry and windy today, with min RH values of 25-35%.
However, the cold temperatures (most areas at or below freezing
to start the day), and rainfall amounts as high as 1-2" over the
past 36 hrs in some areas, will mitigate the threat. Therefore,
did not issue any SPS/Fire Danger Statements.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-
     656-658.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET/LKB
FIRE WEATHER...