809
FXUS61 KAKQ 201936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and cooler conditions prevail into tonight. A warm
front lifts north tonight into Friday, and then crosses the
local area as cold front Saturday. Intermittent chances for
rainfall are possible early Friday through Saturday. High
pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next week,
leading to dry conditions. Another system may impact the area
Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry and mostly cloudy weather continues into tonight. Some
  patchy fog is possible late tonight as a warm front
  approaches the area.

Elongated high pressure extends from coastal New England down into
the NC/VA coastal plain this afternoon. Aloft, a split flow pattern
is present, with a deep trough over the Desert Southwest and another
trough over the upper Midwest. S and E of these features is a broad
ridge, which is leading to WNW flow aloft across most of the Mid-
Atlantic region. A CAD-like setup remains present over most of our
CWA given the position of the high, though it will gradually shift
SE tonight and then offshore by Friday. The stratus deck is
attempting to erode under pressure from solar heating, with clearing
most evident over our srn Piedmont counties. Elsewhere, clouds
should continue to scour, though it will take time and may not occur
until later this evening. The cloud cover is also leading to cool
temps which range from the mid-upper 40s across the NW to low-mid
50s elsewhere. While areas that see some sunshine may warm another
degree or two, temps under the clouds will tend to remain stagnant
through the evening.

Dry conditions are expected to persist through most of tonight.
Overnight lows fall into the low-mid 40s under a mostly cloudy sky.
May again see some low stratus or patchy fog late tonight into early
Friday morning as low-level moisture remains in place in the
presence of some weak WAA. Low-end chances for sprinkles or
light rain also begin to encroach on our western tier of
counties by 5-6 AM or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Milder Friday with scattered rain chances.

- Best chance for rain is Friday night into Saturday, followed
  by dry/cool conditions Saturday night into Sunday.

The trough over the Southwest CONUS will eject into the Plains
Friday. This will aid in slowly pushing a warm front northward,
while the sfc high also becomes shunted offshore. An initial batch
of overrunning rainfall is possible Friday morning and have PoPs
ramping up from W to E to 30-50% (60% far W) through the early
afternoon. Expect a return to mainly dry wx for the rest of the
afternoon behind this initial shot of rain, but can`t rule out low-
end chances for additional showers through the day. There is
uncertainty with the temperature forecast as model agreement
surrounding the warm front placement is poor. So, don`t see much
reason to deviate significantly from the NBM/blended forecast, which
brings the mildest temps to srn VA and NE NC (low-mid 60s) and the
cooler temps (upper 50s) N. What likely transpires may be a bit more
extreme, with a larger temp gradient from N to S. Will monitor the
model trends over the next 12-24 hrs and make adjustments as
necessary.

The highest coverage of rainfall is expected overnight Friday into
early Saturday morning as the warm front remains near the region and
a wave of low pressure rides up through OH/TN valley. PoPs are
highest across the N, closer to the more favorable upper-level
ascent and sfc low. Regardless, the orientation of the jet aloft is
not very favorable for significant rainfall across the local area.
Forecast QPF is around 0.25" N to 0.1-0.25" S and probabilities from
the EPS for >0.50" are 20% or less. A few of hi-res models indicate
some localized corridors could see locally higher amounts in excess
of 0.50", especially in areas of mesoscale enhancement. Confidence
in these corridors is low at this time and will likely shift around
with the new cycles. With light southerly flow, precip, and cloud
cover, overnight temps Friday night will only cool into the 50s,
with some upper 40s possible for the nrn half and on the Eastern
Shore.

The associated cold front will then overtake the warm front
Saturday, pushing southward through the local area in the late
morning or early afternoon. A few showers are likely to accompany
this FROPA, but they should be rather brief and produce only limited
QPF. Despite temps warming into the upper 60s-lower 70s across
the SE, models show very little available instability.
Therefore, the chance of thunder is very low and have removed
mention of this from the forecast. N/NW of the frontal boundary,
temps will be cooler and may struggle to get out of the 50s.
High pressure quickly settles in W of the area Saturday night,
bringing dry, cooler, and mostly sunny wx post-FROPA Sunday.
Highs Sunday in the mid 50s to around 60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
  middle of next week.

Becoming quite chilly Sunday night as the high builds closer to
the area, with lows in the 30s. However, optimal radiational
cooling conditions could allow temps to fall near or just below
freezing.

Temperatures will then gradually moderate back into
the 60s Monday and Tuesday ahead of another disturbance that
approaches the region around mid- week. There remains inconsistencies
between global models in the timing of this next system, but
most guidance suggests an initial round of rainfall Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Uncertainty then increases significantly for the
later half of the holiday week, with solutions ranging from
dry and cool to wet and stormy. The later of these two would be
the result of another wave/disturbance riding up along a
baroclinic zone over the Southeast CONUS, as seen on the 20/00z
ECMWF and 20/12z GFS deterministic runs, while the former is the
result of more suppression at the sfc and less amplification in
aloft. Overall, the wx pattern evolution in this timeframe
seems to be closely tied to the upstream evolution of the
waveguide aloft, which has shown significant run-to-run
variability. For now, mild temps look to continue into Wednesday
with highs around 70 F, followed by cooler temps on Thanksgiving
and to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Thursday...

A widespread stratus deck prevails across most of the local area
this afternoon, including at all local TAF terminals. While
CIGs earlier were MVFR to locally IFR, CIGs have slowly lifted
to VFR at RIC and SBY, with MVFR persisting at ORF, PHF, and
ECG. These lower clouds should clear further through this
afternoon and expect VFR areawide by this evening. VFR then
persists into the early portion of tonight. Guidance is now
highlighting some potential for low stratus or patchy fog late
tonight into early Friday morning, though confidence is higher
in the low stratus potential. Flight restrictions to IFR or
LIFR would be expected in these areas, but don`t think it will
be widespread. Thus, have mentioned locally reduced VSBY and
low-end MVFR CIGs in TEMPO groups at ORF, PHF, and ECG, with a
prevailing group at RIC. VFR is expected at SBY through Friday
morning. Heading into later Friday morning and the afternoon,
rain/showers increase in coverage, with the highest PoPs at RIC
through 18z. Surface winds will remain light and generally
variable through the TAF period, with a light southerly wind
developing later Friday morning.

Outlook: Additional flight restrictions are expected Friday
night into early Saturday as more rain and low CIGs overspread
the region. Dry and VFR returns by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 155 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions are expected to continue tonight
  and Friday.

- A cold front crosses the local waters on Saturday with the potential
  for Small Craft conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday
  morning.

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure over New England, extending
southward into the Mid-Atlantic. Winds have fallen off considerably
with winds mainly NNE 5-10 kt. Waves are around 1 ft in the bay with
seas offshore 3-4 ft.

High pressure lingers north of the area today before moving offshore
tonight. Light winds are expected to continue tonight before
becoming SW 5-10 kt on the back side of a weak warm front by
Friday afternoon. Some fog is possible tonight ahead of the warm
front but low confidence in timing and extent of any visibility
restrictions. The pressure gradient will steepen Friday night
and early Saturday but mainly into the 10-15 kt range. 12z
guidance has started to converge on the timing of the frontal
passage across the area, with the consensus showing the front
moving southward after sunrise Saturday and clearing the
southern waters by the mid to late afternoon. Cold advection
behind the front will allow NNW winds to increase to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches Bay and coastal waters (mainly
10-15 kt in the rivers). SCA headlines will probably be needed
for this period in at least portions of the Ches Bay and
Currituck Sound. As winds become NNE to NE Saturday night, seas
near and south of the VA/NC border likely increase to 4-5 ft
through Sunday morning. Waves in the bay build to 2-3 ft during
this period with seas for the northern coastal waters likely
topping out in the 3-4 ft range. High pressure builds into the
area on Sunday with improving marine conditions expected.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RHR