652
FXUS61 KAKQ 161953
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds in from the west tonight into
Monday. High pressure is expected to be centered over the region
early Tuesday, before moving offshore Tuesday afternoon ahead
of a low pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of
rain Tuesday night. Primarily dry Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

-  Dry, windy, and warm conditions continue this afternoon. A
   Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area for
   critical fire weather conditions.

- Dry, clear, and cooler tonight.

An upper trough is located over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
this afternoon. At the surface, 978mb low pressure is centered
over SW Nova Scotia, with a cold front trailing into SE VA. This
front is primarily a dewpoint boundary and wind shift from W to
NW (briefly NNW-N immediately behind the front). Wind speeds
are generally 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, and
occasionally to 35-40 mph. Temperatures remain mild, even
behind the front due to downslope flow and range from the mid
60s over the NW Piedmont to the lower to mid 70s over SE VA and
NE NC, and 60-65F over the Eastern Shore. Critical fire weather
conditions continue for much of the area due to the strong wind,
20-30% RH values, and dry fuels.

High pressure will be slow to build in from the W tonight.
Therefore, breezy conditions should continue through the evening
hours. Clear tonight with lows ranging from the lower 30s over
the Piedmont (where some decoupling is possible toward morning),
to the mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere where a persistent light
breeze (5-10 mph) will limit decoupling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Monday with breezy conditions persisting for the
  Eastern Shore.

- Low pressure moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night with
  rain chances for portions of the area.

High pressure will be slow to build in from the in from the W
Monday as low pressure lifts NE into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
The pressure gradient will remain strongest over the Eastern
Shore where a NW wind of 15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph.
Farther inland, there should still be enough pressure gradient
when combined with a well mixed dry airmass to support a NW wind
of 10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid-
afternoon, before relaxing later in the afternoon. Cooler with
high temperatures ranging from ~50F/lower 50s over the Eastern
Shore to the upper 50s well inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay.
High pressure settles over the area Monday night into early
Tuesday morning with low temperatures dropping into the upper
20s to lower 30s inland, to the mid 30s to around 40F at the
coast.

Clouds increase and thicken Tuesday ahead of a weakening
surface low pressure system approaching from the WNW. Rain will
attempt to arrive from W-E late Tuesday afternoon, but will
initially have to overcome a rather dry airmass as forecast
soundings depict a rather dry sub-cloud layer. The highest rain
chances, 60-80% rain chances are primarily along and north of
US-460 Tuesday evening, then shifting ESE overnight. Not
expecting a super beneficial rainfall from it, generally
0.25-0.3" N to ~0.1" S, but it will be certainly welcome due to
recent dry conditions. High temperatures will only be in the mid
to upper 50s S and lower 50s for the north, with some upper 40s
possible if thicker cloud cover arrives earlier. Low
temperatures will not be as chilly given clouds and rain, and
range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s S. Low pressure pushes
offshore Wednesday with weak high pressure building in from the
W. Mainly dry aside from low rain chances along the coast early
Wednesday. Becoming partly sunny with high temperatures ranging
from the mid 50s N to the mid 60s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures are expected for the remainder
  of the week.

- Passing disturbances may create slight chances of light rain
  Friday into Saturday.

Weak high pressure prevails Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will result in dry and mainly partly cloudy conditions.
Weakening low pressure tracks front the Great Lakes to the
Northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but
weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into
Saturday. This will produce occasional low-end light rain
chances (greatest N) later Thursday night through Saturday.
Spread in the model guidance increases by later next weekend,
but overall the blended guidance shows dry conditions by Sunday
at this time. A gradual moderating trend is expected Thursday
through Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s Thursday, then
upper 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday, with mid 70s
possible S both days. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower
50s Friday morning, and then the 50s Saturday morning. The
latest blended guidance depicts slightly cooler, but still above
average temperatures later next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Sunday...

A primarily dry cold front is crossing the region as of 18z.
VFR under a partly to mostly sunny sky with a W to NW wind of
15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt. This wind should continue through
the aftn with occasional gusts to 30-35kt through ~23z. VFR
conditions continue tonight into Monday. Remaining breezy this
evening (through 02-04z) with a NW wind ~10kt gusting to
15-20kt, before relaxing overnight. Sunny Monday with a NW wind
of 10-12kt with gusts ~20kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts
25-30kt at SBY.

Continued VFR Monday night through most of Tuesday. A chance of
light rain and degraded flight conditions will return Tuesday
night as a quick-moving low pressure system passes through,
especially for RIC-PHF-SBY and north. Primarily VFR Wednesday
through Friday as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect into Monday morning for the
  coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light and the Chesapeake
  Bay north of Windmill Point, with Small Craft Advisories in
  effect for all other zones.

- NW winds remain elevated Monday, then drop off significantly
  Tuesday.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a cold front pushing south
across the southern waters. Winds have become NW 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt behind the front across most of the local
waters with 20- 25 kt winds with gusts up to 35 kt across the
northern coastal waters. The best CAA doesn`t arrive until late
afternoon/early evening and will maximize this evening through
the early overnight period. During this time, NW winds increase
to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt across the coastal waters
north of Cape Charles Light as well as the Ches Bay north of
Windmill Point and 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the
rest of the local waters. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible
elsewhere, mainly this evening, but think the threat for these
areas is best handled with a high-end SCA and an SMW (if needed)
for ~2 hrs. Gale Warnings remain in effect until 12z/7 AM Mon
across the Ches Bay north of Windmill Point and for the coastal
waters between Parramore Island and Cape Charles Light and until
15z/10 AM Mon for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island.
Will note that Gale Warnings will need to be replaced by SCAs
Mon as residual CAA continues across the local waters. Another
uptick/surge in winds is possible Mon night as the pattern
depicts sfc high pressure still W of the waters until Tuesday.
This could allow for additional CAA with SCAs lingering through
Mon night (mainly across the upper Bay). Otherwise, SCAs remain
in effect until 1 AM Mon for the upper rivers and Currituck
Sound, 7 AM Mon for the Lower James River, 1 PM Mon for the
southern coastal waters, and 4 PM Mon for the Ches Bay.

Much lighter winds are expected Tuesday as high pressure
settles in from the west. A weak system passes through the area
late Tue night/Wed, likely shifting the winds to the NNE by Wed.
However, sub- SCA conditions likely continue through late week.

Seas build to 3-6 ft (locally 7 ft out 20 nm) this evening
through early Mon before subsiding through the day on Mon. The
offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building much
higher. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay build to 3-4 ft south and
3-5 ft north this evening into early Mon before gradually
subsiding.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 250 PM EST Sunday...

A dry cold front is sliding across southeastern portions of the
area this afternoon. Warm, dry, and breezy with temperatures in
the mid 60s to lower 70s and RH vales dropping to 20- 30%
inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Critical fire weather
conditions are occurring for these locations and a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through 6 PM. RH values are not quite
as low near the coast, so an SPS for increased fire danger
continues through 6 PM for the Eastern Shore and coastal NE NC.

High pressure will be slow to build in from the W tonight into
Monday. Relatively poor RH recovery is expected overnight given
a dry airmass and a persistent light breeze. The pressure
gradient will remain strongest over the Eastern Shore Monday as
well as the western shore of the Ches. Bay where a NW wind is
expected to be 15- 20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph over the
Eastern Shore and 10-15 mph with gusts ~25 mph along the western
shore of the Ches. Bay. Farther inland, there should be enough
pressure gradient combined with a dry well-mixed airmass to
support a NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least
through mid-afternoon. RH values will be quite low ranging from
~20% over the Piedmont, to 30-35% over the Eastern Shore. An
increased fire danger statement will likely be necessary Monday
for at least NE portions of the area, and potentially most of
the area, but any SPS will not be issued until the current
headlines expire at 6 PM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ015>017-031-032.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JKP
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JKP
LONG TERM...AJZ/JKP
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/RMM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ