032
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
114 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers are likely this morning, with lingering showers
possible near the coast through the afternoon. Mild weather
continues today, with cooler and drier conditions returning
tonight behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier conditions
will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A few light showers taper off this afternoon with improving
  conditions through the day.

- Mild today with highs in the lower to locally mid 70s.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluded low over the Great
Lakes with a cold front approaching from the west. Temps as of
110 PM ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region
with partly cloudy skies for most. A few light showers across
far SE VA/NE NC this afternoon are expected to taper off over
the next hour or so. The cold front is progged to cross the
area from west to east this evening-early tonight as the low
over the upper Midwest tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Winds
become WNW/W with gusts up to 20-25 mph behind the front
tonight. Winds gradually taper off late tonight with lows in the
30s (mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40F closer to the
coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and breezy on Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

- Quite cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont, with
  lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day and Friday as deep
upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036
mb high pressure builds over the Plains. The strong high eventually
becomes centered over the local area Friday night/Saturday AM as the
flow aloft flattens out. Highs Thu will only be in the upper 40s-
lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold Thursday night
with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s. With the chilly high
still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of a breeze so radiational
cooling conditions won`t be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop
to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of
the FA). Friday will be the coldest day of the period with continued
breezy WNW winds and highs only in the lower-mid 40s. With the high
over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont,
with lower-mid 20s elsewhere as winds become light and skies remain
clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Saturday.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more
  widespread wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Mostly sunny, dry, and cooler wx linger on Saturday. Clouds increase
Saturday night-Sun AM as the high moves offshore and another low
pressure system tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible
later Sunday into Monday as that system drags a cold front through
the area. Seasonably cool on Sun/Mon with highs in the upper 40s-
60F. A stronger system potentially impacts the area Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Guidance has trended cooler and highs may struggle
to get our of the 40s on both days across a decent portion of the
FA. This system could bring a more widespread wetting rain to the
area. A small minority of the global ensemble members show the
potential for light snow across NW portions of the FA with the
Tue/Tue night system. However, probabilities for an inch of snow
from the GEFS/EPS/NBM are no higher than 10-20% attm in the NW third
our area with higher probabilities well to our N.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Wednesday...

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions continue across the area
terminals this afternoon with a few light showers across far SE
VA and NE NC (including ORF). Showers taper off over the next
couple of hours with clouds becoming more SCT as opposed to BKN
through the afternoon. Additionally, CIGs are expected to
improve to VFR over the next couple of hours. A strong cold
front moves across the area this evening into tonight. SW winds
of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt continue this afternoon ahead
of the cold front. Winds may briefly diminish this evening
before the cold front passage. Behind the cold front, winds
become W and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt.
Winds diminish to 5-10 kt late tonight before increasing to ~10
kt with gusts up to 20 kt Thu afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected behind the front through
Saturday as a much drier and cooler airmass moves in. Breezier
conditions are expected Fri with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt gusting
to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds over the
area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are have been issued for the Bay, tidal
rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into early
Thursday morning.

- Secondary surge keeps winds elevated into Friday before high
pressure brings benign marine conditions to start the weekend.

Early morning surface analysis shows a warm front stalled to our
north with a low pressure system entering the Great Lakes region.
Currently, winds remain southerly in the wake of yesterday`s warm
frontal passage. Speeds sporadically made it to Small Craft Advisory
thresholds during the late evening/early overnight hours, but not
quite as widespread as expected. Went ahead and cancelled the
ongoing SCAs due to winds expected to subside even more over the
next few hours. Additionally, batches of rainfall will move through
this morning, and a rumble of thunder can`t totally be ruled out. A
cold front extending south from the aforementioned low pressure
system will push through our local area later today. This will turn
winds more northwesterly and allow for drier, colder air to rush in.
Despite the cool water temperatures, the change in airmass will be
great enough to result in an uptick in winds later this evening.
Guidance continues to indicate this will happen with a stark start
time around 00-02Z as winds over the waters will reach 19-22kt with
gusts upwards of 25-28kt. Thus, SCAs have been issued for the Bay,
tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound from 01Z/8pm (04Z for the Sound)
through 11Z/6am. While winds will also increase across the coastal
waters, decided to leave them out of the SCA for now since guidance
is coming in just below SCA thresholds. Additionally, seas will have
a hard time building much under the west/northwesterly winds, so
expect seas to hold around 4ft with some 5 footers closer out to
20nm. Waves in the Bay will become 3-4ft.

The pressure gradient will relax a bit during the day on Thursday as
the low pressure system moves further into interior Canada. Winds
will still be breezy, but come down to 12-15kt. This will be a brief
dip as a secondary surge of CAA pushes in overnight into Friday.
Winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt after sunset Thursday and
stay elevated through Friday before subsiding Friday night as high
pressure nudges into the region. Another round of more solid SCAs
will be likely for most, if not all, of the local waters during this
timeframe. Can`t totally rule out an occasional gust to gale force
(34kt), especially over the coastal waters, though local wind
probabilities are keeping the likelihood of that at less than 10%.
Marine conditions will become benign to start the weekend as high
pressure builds in. Waves in the Bay will be around 1ft with seas of
2-3ft. The next weather system may move in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Wed 11/26


Record           Record
                High/Year
--------        --------
Eliz. City, NC   78/1946
Richmond         76/1999
Norfolk          76/1990
Salisbury        74/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ633.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP
CLIMATE...