989
FXUS61 KAKQ 251908
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system brings a chance for some light showers this
afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms possible tonight. Lingering showers are possible
on Wednesday as well, with cooler and drier conditions returning
Wednesday night behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier
conditions will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers develop late this afternoon and this evening across
  western portions of the area, mainly NNW of a Richmond to
  Salisbury line. Showers are likely across most of the area
  after midnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder
  possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure shifting offshore
this afternoon. To the west, a dampening mid-level trough
continues to slide east from the eastern TN Valley toward the
local area. The attendant surface low was analyzed over the
lower OH valley, with a warm front extending SE across the
Carolinas. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching from
the west ahead of a strong trough and low pressure system
moving through the mid-MS valley into the Great Lakes Region.
Each of these systems will have an impact on our sensible wx
over the next few days.

The warm front associated with the initial system lifts across
the region late today into this evening. A narrow swath of
weakening overrunning moisture attendant to the warm front will
cross the piedmont and along/north of the RIC metro toward the
MD Eastern Shore late this afternoon into this evening,
resulting in a brief round of showers. Despite the increasing
cloud cover, temperatures have climbed well into the 60s for
most (50s over the far west), with highs in the upper 60s-70F
readings expected across SE VA/NE NC. The only exception will be
across the far west, where increasing clouds and midday/aftn
light rain likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the
55-60F range.

The warm front lifts well to our north tonight, with temperatures
hanging largely in the 60s on a breezy S wind. A more
widespread, but quick-moving slug of overrunning moisture ahead
of the trailing cold front crosses the area. Timing for this
wave is mainly from 11 PM-6 AM. Will keep the mention of thunder
in the forecast through the night as model soundings continue
to show up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE moving in. With no
surface- based instability, not expecting much more than a few
rumbles of thunder at the very most. Areal avg rainfall amounts
will be 0.1-0.25" through tonight (which will actually be the
bulk of the rain from this system).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) will
  be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, with
  dry conditions returning Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and breezy from Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.

The stronger second system currently over the mid-MS valley is
progged to track NE into the upper Great Lakes, Ontario/Quebec
Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will drag a fairly
strong cold front through the local area Wed evening-early Thu
morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers,
perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are
possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, though model
trends continue to favor a drier frontal passage, as the best
deep- layered moisture/upper forcing remains confined to our
N/NE. Mild in the quasi-warm sector on Wed, with highs in the
lower 70s in most areas, though some mid 70s are certainly
possible with the breezy return flow. This would threaten a few
daily records, which have been included below in the climate
section for reference. Lows fall sharply behind the front into
the mid 30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day, as deep upper
troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb
high pressure builds over the Plains. Highs will only be in the
upper 40s-lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold
Thursday night with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s.
With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of
a breeze so radiational cooling conditions won`t be quite ideal
(but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in
the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with increasing rain chances
  by Monday and Tuesday.

The deep trough remains over the eastern CONUS Fri AM before the
flow aloft flattens out by Saturday. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to
30 mph. Winds may become light or calm Fri night/Sat AM as the
1032+mb high settles over the region. This will likely be the
coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower- mid
20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in
typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny and dry
conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the
weekend. However, increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying
airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the
weekend into early next week, as a deep trough builds over the
Rockies allowing deep-layered SW flow. Several disturbances in
the flow are expected to track over the area early next week as
well, which will increase rain chances (and potentially allow
for a more widespread wetting rain).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals prevail through
much of the 18z TAF period on SSE winds 5-10 kt gusting to ~15
kt. Thickening/lowering clouds are expected late afternoon
through this evening before CIGs lower late tonight. Showers in
association with a warm front lifting across the region will
bring an increasing chance of light rain at RIC/SBY between
22z/5p EST and 05z/midnight, and a PROB30 has been appended for
this potential.

Otherwise, a better chance for periods of degraded flight
conditions arrive at RIC/SBY/PHF with the passage of the warm
front, primarily after 03-05z, with MVFR to IFR CIGs likely.
VFR/MVFR conditions likely prevail through most of the night at
ORF/ECG, more likely around and after sunrise Wed. The best
chance of showers is between 05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated
tstms or at least a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out,
but strong/severe storms aren`t expected. Winds become S-SSW at
10-12kt with gusts to 20kt tonight.

After a brief lull, Isolated showers/tstms are possible
Wednesday aftn/evening along and just ahead of a strong cold
front. VFR conditions prevail post-frontal Wednesday night
through Saturday, as a markedly drier and colder airmass
overspreads the region. A WNW wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to
25kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier Friday with a NW
wind of 12-18kt gusting to 25-30kt, highest around KSBY. High
pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bay, coastal
  waters north of Parramore Island, and the tidal rivers for
  this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Cold front pushes through Wednesday night with another round of
  SCAs likely for the second half of the week as winds remain
  elevated.

As this happens, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit over
our area allowing for southerly winds to increase slightly later
this evening into the overnight hours. Small Craft Advisories
are out for the Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters
north of Parramore Island for winds of 18-21kt and gusts up to
25kt. Additionally, waves and seas will increase to 2-3ft in the
Bay and 4-5ft in the northern coastal zones. There will also be
a chance of rain into Wednesday morning, with a rumble of
thunder or two possible. SW winds will subside to 12-16kt during
the day on Wednesday as seas hover around 4ft, with 5ft
occasionally possible closer to 20nm out across the north.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night
turning winds northwesterly. A colder airmass will move in behind
the front resulting in winds increasing across the waters. Another
round of SCAs will likely be needed at least for the rivers, Sound,
and Bay for sustained winds of 18-22kt Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Winds may briefly try to subside just below SCA thresholds
during the day on Thursday, but will pick back up again overnight
into Friday. These look to be the strongest winds of the period as
of now with gusts up to 30kt expected. Latest wind probabilities
don`t show much of a chance for any gales as of this writing, but
solid SCAs are expected or most of the local waters. During this
timeframe, waves in the Bay will increase to 3-4ft with seas
remaining at 4-5ft. Winds and waves/seas will subside Friday night
into Saturday as high pressure builds in overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Wed 11/26


Record           Record
                High/Year
--------        --------
Eliz. City, NC   78/1946
Richmond         76/1999
Norfolk          76/1990
Salisbury        74/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...JKP
CLIMATE...