105
FXUS61 KAKQ 061757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1257 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week. Cool weather continues into next week.
Shower chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by
late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the NW half of the
  area until 8am for freezing fog/drizzle and black ice potential.

- Freezing fog is possible inland tonight.

Early morning analysis shows low pressure off the NC coast
continuing out to sea as high pressure builds into the region. Flow
aloft remains out of the SW with a broad trough near and north of
the Great Lakes. Widespread low stratus clouds are entrenched across
the region early this morning which has kept fog formation in check
so far. The Winter Weather Advisory for roughly the NW half of the
area continues unchanged as some potential remains for light
freezing drizzle or freezing fog prior to 8am. Additionally, this is
the area that has temperatures at or below freezing and thus also
has a threat for black ice. Widespread clouds should limit
radiational cooling with lows in the upper 20s NW to around the
freezing mark from Mecklenburg County NE to the Tri-Cities/Richmond
Metro, Northern Neck, and MD Eastern Shore. To the SE of this line,
temps are above freezing with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s.

Overcast skies linger through late morning or early afternoon before
some drier air finally begins to scour out the stable low level
airmass. High temps this afternoon will inch into the low and mid
40s with some clearing expected from NW to SE by late afternoon.
Fewer clouds and light winds will lead to much improved radiational
cooling potential tonight. Low level saturation is indicated on
forecast soundings with the potential for more widespread and dense
fog/freezing fog. Lows tonight fall into the 20s for most of the
area with low 30s near the bay/coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and a bit warmer on Sunday ahead of the next front.

- Weak disturbance aloft may allow for some light rain or snow
  showers across the region Monday with few impacts expected.

High pressure moves offshore on Sunday, allowing low level flow to
become southerly. Partly cloudy skies linger through most of the day
before some clearing Sunday evening. High temps range from the mid
40s N to the upper 40s and low 50s S. A strong cold front drops
southward Sunday night with lows falling back into the 20s to low
30s.

A short wave aloft will traverse the region on Monday and may
provide enough lift for some light rain/snow showers across mainly
the southern half of the area. Deep layer moisture is quite limited
behind the surface cold front with just a few hundredths indicated
in the guidance. Little to no accumulation is expected. High temps
Monday top out in the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE. Very cold air
moves into the region Monday night with lows in the mid to upper
teens inland, mainly low to mid 20s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

- Remaining cool on Tuesday with warmer temps expected Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Another front crosses the region late week with cooler temps and
  precip potential.

High pressure over the region on Tuesday will move offshore by
midweek. Cold temps continue Tuesday with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Not as cold overnight with lows mainly in the 20s. The high moves
offshore by Wednesday with temps warming back into the 50s. Similar
conditions are expected Thursday with precip chances increasing
overnight as the next front traverses the area. Cooler Friday with a
continued chance for mainly light rain, potentially ending as a
rain/snow mix overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EST Saturday...

IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs continue to prevail across the terminals
this afternoon, with SBY and PHF still observing reduced VIS. This
was a tricky aviation forecast as most guidance suggests that CIGs
will start to lift over the next hour or so, though only ORF has
shown any promise for that based on obs. TEMPOs have been included
at all sites aside from ORF through 19z, though amendments may
be necessary over the next few hours if these low clouds don`t
scatter out quite as quickly as forecast. Tonight will bring
another decent set-up for fog, especially at RIC. With
temperatures forecast to drop below freezing, there is a chance
that RIC could see patchy freezing fog. All other sites may
also see some fog, though confidence is lower. Have left SBY VFR
for the time being since fog looks more favorable at the other
terminals, but once again confidence is low in this and we will
continue to monitor trends in both guidance and obs through
tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the
TAF period.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return Sunday and Sunday
night. Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight
conditions to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 150 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions over the weekend, with another round
  of SCAs likely on Monday.

Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front well south of the local
waters, with low pressure quickly exiting farther offshore of
the mid-Atlantic coast. To the west, 1020+mb sfc high pressure
over the west-central Gulf coast continues to slowly build NE
this morning. Winds were generally 10-15 kt as of this writing,
w/ waves ~2ft and seas 2-4 ft, except ~4-5 ft south of the
VA/NC border. SCA remains in effect over the far southern
coastal zone until 4 am, with mainly benign boating conditions
thereafter through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure
slides in from the west this afternoon and this evening. Winds
will back to the W and remain ~10kt today, becoming light and
variable tonight and tomorrow, as previously referenced high
pressure centers overhead late tonight, sliding offshore late
Sunday. Waves diminish to 1-2 ft, seas 2-4 ft, subsiding to 2-3
ft on Sunday.

A strong, though mainly dry cold front drops across the area on
Monday. SCA conditions are likely, with the potential for at
least some brief gale force wind gusts Monday morning. In-house
wind probs have diminished to no more than 30-40 % probability
for wind gusts >= 34kt Monday morning, and 10-20% in the Bay,
and will therefore cap winds at strong SCA for now. After a
brief secondary CAA surge Monday evening, winds diminish once
again Tuesday morning, as high pressure rebuilds over the
region Tue/Tue night. However, winds increase once again for
Wed, as a warm front lifts across the region, ahead of another
cold front that approaches for late next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM