638
FXUS61 KAKQ 111800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
100 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes offshore this morning, with cooler temperatures
through Friday. A series of clipper systems late this week and
again at the end of the weekend will bring some additional light
wintry precipitation to the region, with some accumulating snow
possible on Sunday. Behind the late weekend system, Arctic air
moves in Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week.
The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively
milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 555 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Breezy, cooler and dry today.

A cold front is pushing toward the mid-Atlantic coast at sunrise
this morning. Skies have mainly cleared across the region this
morning, as drier air filters into the region post-
frontal...though we do have some short-lived mid-clouds that
will clear out in the next 2-3 hrs. The cold front sweeps
farther offshore later this morning, as chilly high pressure
builds in from the west. Breezy conditions will persist through
early afternoon, with W-NW winds gusting to ~20 mph across the
area with some 25 mph gusts possible across the MD Eastern
Shore. Despite plenty of sunshine, look for highs today the low
to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A weak clipper system swings across the region Friday,
  bringing some light rain/snow showers to the region.

Models continue to show another clipper low dropping SE out of
the northern/central Plains, rounding the base of the east
coast trough and heading across the Ohio Valley Thu night,
eventually reaching our area on Friday. Deterministic models and
CAMs have come into general agreement with the track of this
system, but continue to show minimal impacts with this weakening
system due to light QPF and marginal surface temperatures. Both
ECMWF/GEFS Ensemble probs are in the 10-30% range (ECMWF lower
at <= 20%) probabilities for 1" of snow. Have maintained light
snow amounts over the VA piedmont manly along and north of
US-460, with some very light snow amounts spreading east to the
Tri-Cities and Williamsburg. The clipper system quickly exits
late Friday, with high pressure moving in quickly on its heels.

Dry weather conditions will remain in place Saturday, with
slightly warmer temperatures. Lows Friday night in the 20s to
low 30s. Highs Sat will be in the mid 40s across the north and
low 50s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday,
  ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some
  light precipitation is possible with the Arctic frontal
  passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle
  of next week.

Main weather item of note remains the strong Arctic cold front
that will drop across the area Sunday into Sunday evening. Models
have continued to trend up with QPF, as the potent upper low
drops from the upper Great Lakes into the northeast Sat night
and Sunday, impelling strong forcing for ascent that allows for
quickly deepening low pressure that lifts along the Arctic
front as it drops across the area Sunday morning.

In the absence of more amplification of the upper pattern, the
majority of the precipitation will fall across the N/NW tier of
the local area, with ensembles depicting increasing confidence
of light accumulations ~1" (60-80% north of RIC-XSA-SBY line on
ECEns/CMCEns, 50-70% on GEFS), with some lower probs of 3+"
also increasing slightly). Farther south, once again, with CAA
chasing the colder air, and with minimal precipitation, any snow
amounts would be quite light. Again, this could change if the
system amplifies further, so stay tuned.

Either way, the true CAA lags behind the system by 6-10 hours,
but arrives in earnest Sunday night. Strong high pressure slides
in from the NW, ushering in Arctic temperatures. Lows Monday AM
are expected to plummet into middle to upper teens and low 20s
along the coast, with chilly highs Monday in the 30s.

There remains broad and improving consensus that cold high
pressure quickly slides offshore Tue- Wed, portending a gradual
warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

High pressure is building in from the W as of 18z. VFR with
FEW-SCT fair wx CU with bases ~5-6kft and a NW wind of 10-15kt
gusting to ~20kt. VFR conditions continue tonight with
increasing clouds and a calm to very light and variable wind.
Weak low pressure tracks across the region Friday. This will
result in increased cloud cover. Generally VFR, with the
exception of RIC, where a period of light snow could result in
IFR vsby along with MVFR cigs mid-morning to early aftn.

Clearing/VFR Friday evening and Saturday as high pressure
returns. Another (stronger) cold front crosses the region late
in the weekend. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix
followed by all snow late Saturday night through midday Sunday.
Turning much colder on gusty NNW winds Sunday aftn. VFR
conditions return Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

-Gusty this morning behind a cold front with improving conditions
this afternoon and overnight.

-Benign conditions Friday-Saturday, then a strong cold front brings
potential for gale-force winds Sunday into Monday.

Early morning sfc analysis indicates a cold front crossing through
central VA/NC. The front should pass over local waters in the next
few hours. For now, SW-W winds are 15-20kt over the bay and coastal
waters and 10-15kt over the rivers. Behind the front, winds turn to
the NW and increase to 20-25kt (10-15kt over the rivers). Winds
remain elevated through mid morning before gradually diminishing
through the afternoon and evening. Gusts will generally be around 30
over the bay and coastal waters, but could see a few gusts near 35kt
out near 20nm in the northern ocean zones. These higher gusts would
likely be brief, around 11-13z. SCAs are in effect for all bay and
coastal zones, the lower James, and the Currituck Sound. Did go
ahead and extend the SCA for the Currituck Sound, which is now set
to expire at 12z, along with the lower James. Seas will be 4-6ft
this morning, diminishing this afternoon. Waves 3-4ft this morning,
then 2-3ft later in the day.

Winds and seas should be sub-SCA by the late afternoon/early
evening. Westerly winds of ~15kt (10kt in the rivers) expected for
the first part of the night, then diminishing to 10kt by early Fri
morning. Much lighter winds forecast for Friday as high pressure
slides overhead. Seas drop back to ~2ft by Friday morning. Benign
conditions continue through Saturday night. A strong cold front is
forecast to pass through the region Sunday. Strong CAA behind the
front likely leads to strong SCA conditions at a minimum with
moderate confidence in gales Sunday night. Local wind probs are
favorable for 34kt+ wind gusts, but not ready to upgrade to high
confidence (or issue watches for that matter) until we are within
range of at least some of the high-res models.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC