633
FXUS61 KAKQ 010817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the area today in the wake of yesterday`s
cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with
a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with
dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system
potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Rain tapers off early this morning with dry and cool weather
  expected today.

Rain continues across far SE VA and NE NC early this morning along a
cold front. Dry wx is noted elsewhere with cloud cover gradually
clearing across far NW portions of the forecast area. A secondary
cold front will push through over the next few hours, bringing
a wind shift to the N and an end to the rain across NE NC.
Temperatures range from the upper 30s NW to mid to upper 40s SE,
though these should noticeably drop over the next few hours as
cold advection ramps up. Early morning lows fall into the 20s
inland and lower to mid 30s for SE VA and NE NC.

Sunny/mostly sunny today as high pressure settles to our N. High
temperatures should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals
and in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight
ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should
drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and
early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW
  portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW
  portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

A stronger system remains on track to impact the region later
Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially
progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching
trough tonight. Widespread precip then moves in early Tuesday
morning as favorable dynamics overspread the region and moisture
overruns an initially cooler airmass. The heaviest precip is
expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low
approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb, with
PWATs also increasing to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1"
for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away
from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a
good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and
points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any
flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of
the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Still continue to monitor for any wintry wx at precip onset, as
temps will initially be near or just below freezing. There is now a
decent consensus among the short-term models regarding a period
of sleet and freezing rain across far NW portions of the
forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the
longest. The wet bulb effect (from the initial dry air) may also
act to (briefly) counteract mid-level WAA and keep temps from
warming, and this effect is seen on forecast soundings after 4
AM or so. Expect no snow accumulation, but a very light sleet
accumulation could occur with the initial leading edge, before
transitioning to freezing rain or rain. The main impact would
be any ice accretion, with the current forecast showing a few
hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accumulation. Given the
morning commute timing and HREF probs for >0.01" of ice
accretion greater than 50% across western Louisa and Fluvanna
counties, have went with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two
zones. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM Tuesday morning as
any p-type issues diminish with the transition to plain rain
areawide. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas,
with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC
(where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to
warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond. Becoming very cold Tuesday
night in the wake of the departing ow. Forecast lows are in the
lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast.

High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry
conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high
temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s
coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching
(dry) cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of
  the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the
  specific details at this range.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold
front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold
air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows
dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper
teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into
Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across
the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful
wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of
the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the
coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a
messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday
night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing
rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in
model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to
the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the
forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially
lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later
Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Monday...

A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with
lingering rain near ORF and ECG. Rain should continue to sag
southward over the next few hrs, ending first at ORF by 07z and
then ECG by 09z. Have also noted MVFR VSBY within the rain, with
localized IFR CIGs near the Albemarle Sound as well. Expect
CIGs to quickly lift over the next few hrs as the rain moves out
and drier air moves in. Elsewhere, VFR prevails through the
period with skies becoming clear this afternoon. Winds become N
behind the front this morning and could gust to 20-25 kt at ORF
and ECG. Winds trend down later this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: The front stalls just south of the local area on
Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed,
bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight
restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night,
continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return
Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early
  this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday
  afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories
  are likely, with low-end gales possible.

A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A
NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs
remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a
NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early
this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have
a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have
been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next
few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High
pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening,
before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for
the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters
through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central
coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters
through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind
becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt
across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry
later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to
10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S.

Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday
morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday
aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping
across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will
be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind
shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished
to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from
the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust
probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for
the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this
time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst
01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night
with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA
surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the
Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night,
before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected
to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the
potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system
potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence
remains low at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ048-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-654.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ