358
FXUS61 KAKQ 050758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter system impacts the region this morning. Cool weather
continues into next week. Primarily dry conditions are expected
from this weekend through the middle of next week. Shower
chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by late
week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in place over most of the area
  this morning.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure centered over upstate NY,
extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic. An inverted trough
extends northward along the higher Appalachian terrain across
western VA and eastern TN/WV. Aloft, flow is very strong from the
W/SW with an embedded short wave trough enhancing lift over the
region. Radar and surface observations show overrunning precip has
moved into the area with many locations in the Piedmont reporting
light snow. Of note is the fact that temperatures are quite a bit
warmer than previously progged. Some dynamic cooling potential
remains, however, with a cold/dry air feed from the high to the
north. Surface wet bulb temperatures are currently in the upper
20s across the north and around the freezing mark along the
US-460 corridor. Temps should continue to decrease as heavier
precip rates move into the region prior to sunrise.

00z guidance has trended toward a bit less snowfall and has shifted
the area of highest accumulations slightly NW. QPF remains pretty
similar so models are picking up on the warmer surface
temperatures with some of the initial snow going toward
cooling/moistening the column. Snow totals now look to favor the
1-3" range with a few spots still possibly seeing amounts up to
4". This would be most likely for the climatologically favored
Piedmont into the western Richmond metro area. Snow totals along
the southern and eastern fringes of the Advisory will likely
see a bit less accumulation than previously forecast. Rapid
drying aloft is still indicated in forecast soundings with the
vast majority of the snowfall accumulation expected to come
overnight through mid morning with loss of saturation in the DGZ
coming quickly thereafter. Have maintained the Winter Weather
Advisory area and timing with this package but some hazard end-
time adjustments are likely later this morning. The threat for
any impactful icing late morning into the afternoon continues to
decrease with most of the winter impacts coming to end by the
early afternoon. Remaining overcast through the afternoon with
temps struggling to get above freezing along and west of I-95
while locations to the east warm in to the upper 30s to low 40s.
Some light rain or drizzle hangs on near the coast through
early evening. Temperatures tonight will depend heavily on snow
cover with overcast conditions continuing. Lows range from the
mid 20s NW to the low 40s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry this weekend.

High pressure builds into the region from the west on Saturday with
some thinning of the cloud cover expected over the NW quarter of the
area during the afternoon. Temperatures warm into the low/mid 40s
for most locations with upper 40s for NE NC and far SE VA. Light
winds and fewer clouds allow lows Saturday night to dip into the low
and mid 20s inland with upper 20s and low 30s E.

High pressure moves over the region Sunday morning and offshore by
the afternoon. The upper trough over the Midwest moves east Sunday
night, allowing for cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast and
increasing clouds for the local area. Temps warm back into the 40s
and 50s by the afternoon. 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance
continues to show low pressure forming well south and east of the
region with only very slight chance PoPs across the S Sunday night.
It appears the column will not be cold enough to support mixed p-
types with this system. Lows Sunday night range from the mid/upper
20s inland to the mid 30s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Moderating temperatures are forecast mid week with cooler temps
  moving back in late in the week.

The general model consensus continues to show primarily dry
conditions through the middle of next week. Some low PoPs across the
S and SE through Monday afternoon remain in the blended guidance but
these are very low confidence given recent model trends. Cool/cold
Monday afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid 40s
SE with lows tumbling into the teens to low 20s for most of the area
Monday night. Warming trend is expected with highs in the 40s
Tuesday and into the 50s on Wednesday as high pressure moves
offshore and southerly return flow gets going. A cold front is
progged to cross the region late week with a return of rain
chances and cooler temps Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions linger for another hour or two as snow moves into
the region from the west. Rapidly deteriorating conditions are
expected with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into
RIC by ~07z and SBY/PHF by ~09z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2
SM in the snow, with the best chances for moderate snow/0.5 SM
VSBYs at RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly
rain but snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from
west to east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at
RIC as temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day).
Precip may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle.
CIGs drop to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all
terminals through the remainder of the period. Drizzle may
continue through the evening for the coastal terminals. Reduced
visibilities likely linger through the end of the period, mainly
2-3SM. IFR/LIFR CIGs persist into the overnight.

Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for
precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions
may linger in the SE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually diminishing winds this morning into the afternoon.
  Seas gradually subside, though SCA mainly for seas remains
  over the Atlantic coastal waters south of Cape Charles into
  late tonight/early Saturday.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of
  SCAs is expected early next week in the wake of a strong cold
  front Monday morning.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the
northern mid-Atlantic region, with weak low pressure lifting
across the southern Appalachians toward the coastal Carolinas.
Seas 3-5 ft, highest central and southern waters. Winds are
gradually diminishing this morning in the wake of the dry cold
front of late last evening. Winds remain 15-20 kt in the bay and
the lower James River, slightly lower in the upper rivers. SCA
over the upper bay will drop off early this morning, but will
continue through around sunrise for the Ches Bay waters south
of New Point Comfort, including the lower James River, and also
the Currituck Sound. On the Atlantic Coast, winds will
predominately sub-SCA criteria, though SE swell, in tandem with
the weaker NE Wind wave will allow seas to increase and hold ~5ft
across the southern two ocean zones south of Cape Charles, as
the high to the north slides across southern New England,
allowing winds to veer to the NE then E-NE later today,
diminishing slowly into tonight. SCA for the northern waters
have been discontinued, while SCA for the Atlantic coast south
of Cape Charles continues into late tonight (early Sat). In
addition to the SCA snow/rain showers are expected early
tomorrow morning. These showers will reduce visibility across
the waters.

More benign marine conditions are expected this weekend, as
chilly high pressure settles overhead. Winds will remain
primarily out of the NNE ~10 to 15 kt, seas 3 to 4 ft, waves 1-2
ft, except 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. A strong, though
mainly dry cold front drops across the area on Monday. SCA
conditions are likely, with the potential for at least some
brief gale force wind gusts Monday morning. In-house wind probs
are holding at ~40 to 50% across the ocean zones and 20 to 40%
across the bay for wind gusts >= 34kt Monday morning. High
pressure returns Tue/Tue night, bringing diminishing winds
veering around to the SSW as high pressure rebuilds over the
area. However, winds increase Wed as a warm front lifts across
the region, ahead of another cold front that approaches for
late next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ012.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ077-
     078-084>086-099-100.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ092-093-523>525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/AJZ/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...HET/MAM