Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
014 FXUS64 KAMA 192306 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 506 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 The ongoing showers in the combined Panhandles today have a low chance of becoming thunderstorms. Any storm that forms will be capable of producing lightning. A marginal risk for flooding is present for the eastern Texas Panhandle on Thursday. Mostly showers are expected across the area, but a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Showers have spread out further than yesterday`s model runs had initially anticipated. Still, with how dry the surface still is, precipitation is having a difficult time achieving accumulation across the combined Panhandles. CAPE profiles today remain abysmally low in the High Plains; therefore, thunderstorm chances remain on the fringes of possibility this afternoon and evening. Dewpoint values today should remain in the 40`s, with some 50`s in the southeast Texas Panhandle. Later tonight, southerly winds will aid in moisture advection for the CWA. As mid level Theta-E profiles increase this morning, so will MUCAPE. Some CAMs suggest an environment is primed for elevated convection before sunrise, mainly for the eastern and south-central Texas Panhandle. The limiting factor will be the MLCIN present, but if air parcels lift beyond this inhibition, early morning thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. For the rest of Thursday, temperatures are expected to decrease areawide due to the persistent OVC cloud coverage and multiple rounds of showers. Short range models and model ensembles are honing in on our mostly likely rainfall totals for the 24 hour period. The 12Z HREF mean shows total QPF ranging from 0.1 - 0.6" across the northwestern half of the FA. For the remaining southeastern half, totals range between 0.5 - 1.0", with some localized areas perhaps exceeding one inch. The 90th percentile amongst HREF ensemble members suggest that our higher end totals are trending downward. Locations in the Texas Panhandle, even the southeast, have a very low (<10%) to see QPF in the 1.5 - 2.0" range, with a less than 5% chance for any area to see rainfall totals above two inches. This may be due to the lower confidence for embedded thunderstorms during the day, and the decrease in coverage amongst the CAMs compared to the global models. Whichever case verifies, high confidence remains in place for the majority of the CWA to see shower activity at any point tomorrow. Forecast MUCAPE and MLCAPE increase again in the afternoon. With 200-600 J/kg to work with, a few thunderstorms remain possible embedded within the shower activity. By Friday morning, the system moves off to the east and we revert to dry and seasonal weather conditions. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Friday onward, near average highs are expected across the CWA. Meanwhile, morning lows will begin to dip back down to the 30`s. Yet some lower 40`s will still be present in our southern zones. Our next upper level system arrives on Sunday, as a large scale trough approaches the High Plains from the west. The most recent 12Z models runs show the system being pulled northward as it moves over the CWA. This leads to some uncertainty regarding the favorability for precipitation, since the moisture advection is expected to flow in from the southeast. This may displace the more favorable moisture track, but PoPs remain between 40-60% areawide on Sunday. Beyond the extended period, long range models are still showing signs of a cold airmass moving into the southern CONUS. We will monitor the potential impacts this may have for the region. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A weather system is impacting the panhandles and all terminals for the next 24 hours. This weather system is currently causing an extensive bank of mid level clouds with light rain showers. The chances of these light rain showers reaching any terminal is not high enough to be reflected in the TAFs until the morning hours of Thursday. The main portions of the weather system impacts the panhandles Thursday morning through the afternoon. This will lead to rain showers at all terminals with a low level cloud bank building in. There is a low chance for embedded thunderstorms at all terminals during the mid morning to afternoon hours that may cause brief MVFR conditions. The low clouds will have a high chance of increasing in thickness during the afternoon hours with conditions becoming MVFR to IFR. Dry air starts to intrude during the evening hours of Thursday which will erode away the rain showers and the cloud deck, but this is just outside the current TAFs. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98