654
FXUS64 KAMA 140128
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
828 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

A narrow line of thunderstorms is currently moving east/northeast
across the Panhandles. This line is currently located from western
Deaf Smith county all the way up to Elkhart, KS. Wind gusts up to
40-50 mph have been recorded with the storms and the light rain
behind the main band. In addition to the strong winds, moderate to
heavy rainfall and small hail will be possible. The line of storms
is expected to continue to move east but will lose some of its
strength as CIN builds in over the region tonight. Minor updates
were made to the ongoing forecast to account for these trends.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

- Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into tonight across
the Panhandles. A couple severe thunderstorms will be possible with
the primary hazard being damaging winds. Although the chances are
very low, cannot entirely rule out hail up to the size of a quarter.
Localized flash flooding will be possible in the western Panhandles,
particularly for flood-prone locations such as urban areas and Palo
Duro Canyon. Flash flooding will also be possible where there are
training thunderstorms.

- Thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday afternoon and into the
early evening. A few thunderstorms may become severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the primary hazards.

- Thunderstorm potential returns Tuesday night, Wednesday,
  Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

An upper-level trough has dug into the Four Corner states, and
embedded disturbances ahead of the trough have been responsible for
the showers and isolated thunderstorms that moved into the western
Panhandles this morning. The latest 12z CAMs depict mixed solutions
regarding what happens with this activity; some call for additional
development and gradual intensification early this afternoon in the
southern Texas Panhandle, while others weaken this cluster of
showers and then re-develop some scattered thunderstorms in the mid-
afternoon hours. As of the time of writing, currently expecting
these showers to weaken as they move east and for at least some
destabilization to occur this afternoon before some thunderstorms
potentially develop around mid-afternoon.

The greatest forcing for ascent associated with this trough,
currently located over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico, is
expected to move toward the Panhandles late this afternoon and
through the evening, developing a line of thunderstorms in New
Mexico that moves into the Panhandles. There is a low chance for a
strong to severe thunderstorm with this round, but it largely
depends upon how much destabilization can occur ahead of it. With a
mean storm motion of around 20-30 mph expected, shouldn`t need
exceptional DCAPE in order to have some strong to severe wind gusts.
Large hail remains a conditional but seemingly secondary severe
hazard owing to likely weak mid-level lapse rates, tall/skinny CAPE,
and a moist atmospheric profile which favors melting hail.

Instantaneous rain rates are favored to be around 2 to 4 inches per
hour with thunderstorms, though locally higher will be possible with
a stronger storm. With that stated, owing to the anticipated quick
storm motion, hourly rain rates are expected to be between 1 to 2
inches per hour. Localized flash flooding will be possible today and
tonight, but given the aforementioned quick storm motion, it is
likely to favor flood-prone locations such as urban areas and Palo
Duro Canyon. Flash flooding will also be possible for locations
where there are training thunderstorms, which is now depicted by the
12z 3km NAM and 12z WRF-NSSL in the southern Texas Panhandle. This
scenario would result in rainfall totals more in the range of 2 to 4
inches. However, confidence is low in this scenario coming to
fruition.

Rain and thunderstorms will move through the Panhandles tonight as
the upper-level trough swings off to the north, but westerly to west-
northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the Panhandles.
Widespread cloud cover is expected at sunrise, but clouds are
expected to clear from west to east through the morning. A surface
trough is expected to develop across a portion of the eastern
Panhandles in the afternoon and a few thunderstorms could develop
along the boundary. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is favored to develop
east of the surface trough with 30-40 kts of effective shear which
would favor organized thunderstorms including the potential for
supercells. Prior to around 7 PM, hodographs are fairly straight
which suggests the potential for a supercell to split. Damaging
winds and large hail will be possible, though the magnitude of each
will depend upon the magnitude of instability and wind shear that
verifies. Thunderstorms should weaken through the evening.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Heights aloft are expected to rise throughout the day on Monday as
the weekend`s trough departs. Temperatures will warm into the mid-
80s to around 90 degrees across the Panhandles. Around a 10% chance
for rain exists across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but given
the lack of forcing for ascent, will have to rely on temperatures
reaching/exceeding convective temperature for this to happen. Wind
shear is expected to be weak, so if thunderstorms occur, it would be
brief with a bout of heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening and
overnight as an upper-level trough in the Intermountain West digs
southeast toward the Panhandles and embedded disturbances move into
the Panhandles.

The trough is currently anticipated to move into the Central Plains
on Wednesday and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and
evening hours.

Details regarding the upper-level pattern become more murky beyond
Wednesday, but there are hints of an upper-level trough over the
Midwest with a building Western ridge resulting in northwesterly
flow aloft on Thursday and Friday. This would suggest some potential
for showers and thunderstorms to continue.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR conditions are being observed to start the TAF period. Will be
monitoring for potential TSRA conditions between now at 06Z with
erratic winds from thunderstorms will be possible. Otherwise,
winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts. Could
see VCTS conditions towards the end of the TAF period for
KAMA/KGUY, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF period
at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29