232
FXUS64 KAMA 240255
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
855 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Panhandles
throughout Sunday. Expect this activity to come to an end by the
late evening hours.

- Watching for a strong cold front to move through the Panhandles
  this coming weekend, bringing with it what could be the coldest
  air of the season thus far.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A lone thunderstorm has remained in tact as it moves across the
southern Texas Panhandle. This storm is currently located over
Canyon and Amarillo and is moving east to northeast. Small hail
has been observed with this storm as well as frequent lightning
and brief gusty winds. The storm may last a few more hours before
dissipating. Patchy fog has been ongoing across portions of the
area, mainly the south central and central Texas Panhandle.
Visibility has at time been down to a quarter mile or less,
particularly near Amarillo. Still monitoring trends to determine
whether or not a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed tonight.

Muscha

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Rain showers have largely exited the area at the time of this
writing. Some hi-res models continue to suggest a shower or two
may reach the far western Panhandles before decaying and a few may
reach the southeast this evening. Have kept in mentions of PoPs
for the southeast for now given that potential scenario.

Forecast guidance has increased the potential for fog tonight,
mainly for the central and eastern combined Panhandles. Plenty of
surface moisture is in place and some locations are already
reaching 95-100 percent RH values early this evening. Fog mentions
have been added to the ongoing forecast for this evening through
tonight, with the highest chances for the southeastern and eastern
Texas Panhandle. Dense fog will also be possible, but for how
long and what areas remain uncertain so a Dense Fog Advisory will
not be issued at this point. Fog will decrease from west to east
overnight as winds become westerly and bring in slightly drier air
at the surface.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across the
Panhandles as an upper-level trough approaches the area. This
activity will continue moving northeast as the favorable forcing
progresses east and dry air moves in from the west. Expecting the
rain to move out of the area by the late evening hours.

As the surface low associated with the upper-level system moves off
to the east, a weak cold front will move in from the northwest
through the day Monday. Given the quickly rising heights aloft and
anticipated sunny sky, temperatures will still be able to warm into
the upper-50s in the northwestern Panhandles to upper-60s in the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures Monday night will drop
into the 30s with some lows around 30 degrees expected in the
northern Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-level trough will move across the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a cold front moves
south through the Great Plains. Latest model guidance has sped up
the timing of the cold front compared to yesterday, with the front
moving in to the northern Plains in the early afternoon and through
the Panhandles by the early evening. The NAM, which sometimes
handles these cold fronts better, is at least few hours quicker than
the global models. Should this happen, expect highs to be cooler
than currently forecast. Will leave the highs alone for now, but
they may need to be adjusted downward in the coming days. Otherwise,
breezy/gusty winds will be possible along and behind the cold front
due to a steep pressure gradient.

A shortwave trough within northwesterly flow aloft could result in
the development of a surface low in northeastern New Mexico on
Wednesday which could result in some 10-20 mph sustained
southerly/southwesterly winds. The latest NBM has highs in the upper-
40s to low-50s, but if those stronger southwesterly winds verify,
temperatures could warm further into the 50s than the NBM is letting
on.

Heights aloft are expected to rise on Thursday and Friday as a ridge
builds over the region in response to a shortwave trough that
approaches through the Southwestern US as another trough dips into
the Western US. Not expecting much, if anything, in terms of rain
from the first trough; however, indications are that it could be
breezy across the area. A cold front will move in as the first
trough departs.

Will have to watch the second trough that looks to impact the area
through the weekend. Although there is some significant timing
differences that one would expect for being 6+ days out, there is
broad agreement among operational and their ensemble members that an
Arctic front could move into the Panhandles as early as Saturday but
more likely on Sunday. Will also have to watch to see if sufficient
moisture is drawn in with this system because, if so, snow will be
possible given that sufficiently cold air will likely be in place.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 354 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A weather system has passed across the panhandles earlier today
producing rainfall across much of the area. This will serve as a
moisture source that can produce both low clouds and fog in the
panhandles. All terminals have a moderate chance of seeing a low
level cloud deck of roughly MVFR to IFR conditions form during
the evening and early overnight hours. The deck is expected to
shift to the east and erode away as drier air pushes into the
panhandles during the mid overnight hours. However the rain has a
low to moderate chance of forming fog mainly in the eastern
panhandles. Currently the threat was not deemed high enough to put
into the TAFs. If any station did get the fog to form on station
it would be KAMA. A cold front then pushes across the panhandles
during the morning hours of Monday bringing drier air. This will
firmly improve conditions to VFR for all stations. The passage of
the front will also bring gusty northwesterly winds for all
terminals for the late morning through to the evening.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98