452
FXUS64 KAMA 261829
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Dry conditions with no weather related travel impacts are
  expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the
  Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to
  much colder temperatures and the potential for wintry
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

With the Panhandles currently situated behind yesterdays dry cold
frontal passage, upper-level flow has now taken on a more
northwesterly direction. This flow will allow the Panhandles to
stay dry through the holiday, but keep temperatures more
regulated. For today, this flow and the currently present cloud
cover will look to keep temperatures pretty chilly with highs only
reaching the upper 40s to low 50s for most locations. Meanwhile,
overnight lows tonight can get quite cold with most of the
Panhandles looking at temperatures in the 20s by the holiday
morning. Clearer skies should see high temperatures Thanksgiving
day sit around low to mid 50s with overnight lows dropping into
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday does look to hold onto this benign weather pattern for one
more day with afternoon highs sitting in the 50s to low 60s.
However as we move into the weekend, model agreement has continued
to push a pattern shift in the form of an upper-level trough and
associated strong cold frontal passage. This tough is expected to
be followed by a decent cold air mass that will likely see
temperatures plummet Sunday and through the middle of next week.
As it stand confidence is rather high that afternoon high
temperatures for this period could dip into the 30s and 40s, but
there is potential for these high to drop even further with
current NBM giving the Northern Panhandles a 40 to 60% chance of
highs below freezing Sunday. These chance look to continue into
Monday with the north seeing 30 to 50% chance of below freezing
high temperatures. Meanwhile, overnight low for these days could
easily reach into the teens with some locations potentially
feeling like they are in the single digits. With trends keeping
the Panhandles this cold, all models have been heavily favoring
snow for any precipitation the Panhandles could receive from this
system.

Now whether or not we can get precipitation has been a lot less
consistent for the models. For the GFS, recent model runs have
been very back and forth when it comes to our chances as the runs
try to decides if the system is going be very progressive or not
in its passage. This same issue has also plagued the ECMWF, albeit
with slightly better consistency on chances of precipitation. As
for the ensemble model runs, recent trends have seen them begin to
favor a more progressive push from the trough, which would result
in a quicker passage of the system and lower chances of
precipitation for the Panhandles. However, the latest runs from
the NBM are still giving us a shot with the run this morning
giving the Panhandles a 10 to 30% chances of seeing an inch or
more of snow by Monday night. Still, with all the ongoing
inconsistency the potential impacts with this system will have to
be taken day by day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

As of early this afternoon, present satellite was seen a cloud
deck spread across the Panhandles. At this time, this deck is
expected to keep conditions at terminals scatter to broken through
the package, but still within VFR levels. Otherwise, look for some
breezy southwesterly to southerly surface winds through the
afternoon with potential to see a rouge gust around 25kt.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11