789
FXUS64 KAMA 061911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
111 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

This afternoon, strong westerly winds in the southwestern Texas
Panhandle may create some minor adverse conditions for certain
outdoor activities. Typical breezy winds can be expected
throughout the rest of the area.

Fire weather conditions should remain near or below elevated in
the southwest today. Continue to practice fire safety in those
areas and obey burn bans.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The main highlights of the short term this period are the
fluctuating temperatures and wind speeds. Today, a tight surface
pressure gradient wind amplify winds across the CWA. The southwest
Texas Panhandle should experience the strongest wind speeds today,
with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A surface low will develop over
the region later today, ahead of the incoming cold front. This will
help wind speeds decrease later this evening. There are some
concerns that wind speeds could be lighter overall today given how
RAP Mesoanalysis shows observed winds lower and MSL pressure broader
than the RAP forecast. Winds will still increase as the day
progresses, but they might not get as strong as previous forecast or
for nearly as long. Later this evening, a cold front will move in
and winds will become light and northerly. Highs today should reach
the 60`s area wide, but temperatures will decrease quickly behind
the front.

Tomorrow, highs are expected to return to near average values in the
40`s and 50`s. Though sky coverage is expected to remain mostly
clear, surface winds should prevail from the north through most of
the day. Unlike today, wind speeds are forecast to be much lighter
overall throughout the CWA.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The general pattern in the extended still consists of benign weather
with a couple of cold fronts to help us stay in range of our average
highs for the season. 500 mb heights show high pressure building
over the western CONUS this upcoming week. This will force upper
level trough activity further east, leaving our FA in the middle of
this activity. High temperatures will be bound to the 50`s and 60`s,
while morning lows will rise from 20`s to 30`s by the midweek. Some
models like the operational GFS hint at a cold airmass settling
further west into the region by next weekend, but there still isn`t
much consistency amongst long range models to definitively
anticipate a more substantial cool down. The lack of moisture
advection will also keep weather conditions dry in the extended.
Surface winds will have to be monitored on a day-to-day basis if
fire weather conditions become more prevalent.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

TAFs continue with VFR conditions through the 18Z period. Breezy,
westerly winds are expected though the afternoon today. After a
cold front passes through this evening, winds will become light
and northerly. Low level wind shear looks less likely at all sites
tonight; therefore, mentions have been removed. Wind speeds in the
first 2,000 ft will increase marginally, but it shouldn`t be
enough to create low level speed shear in the area tonight.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55