058
FXUS64 KAMA 021122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

-Potential for light snow Wednesday night for the central to
 western combined Panhandles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

It may be a different day, but it is another cold start to the
day. Temperatures are in the teens to mid 20s and some locations
are even having wind chill values in the single digits. Once
again, bundle up if heading out this morning. This afternoon will
warm up to near average highs, in the 50s to low 60s. It will be a
bit breezy out there though, especially for locations across the
southern Texas Panhandle. The previous forecast remains on track
with only minor edits made.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Slight H5 height rises are expected today as an upper level trough
exits the area. This will allow H85 temperatures to warm back around
positive 10 degrees C. Afternoon highs are progged to be in the
upper 50s to possibly some lower 60s because of this. The next upper
level trough to impact the area is expected to swing through late
tomorrow. Out of ahead of it, a leeside surface low is progged to
develop just to the west in NM today causing some breezy
southwesterly winds. As this low traverses the combined Panhandles
tonight, a cold front will follow moving into the area early
tomorrow. This front is expected to bring in north to northeast
winds around 15 to 20 mph by Wed afternoon and help hold
temperatures back 8 to 15 degrees. The upper level trough may also
bring some prospects for snow. The western Panhandles has the best
chance of measuring snow with PoPs around 30, dropping off to 10 or
less in the eastern Panhandles. Models have depicted this system
moving in much faster now with PoPs in the northwest during the day
Wednesday, with much of the activity happening Wednesday and
wrapping up before sunrise Thursday.

With this very open and positively tilted trough to come in Wed
night, moisture will be lacking once again. Flow aloft remains too
zonal with little to no low level moisture to work with. Much of the
mid to upper level moisture that is bringing the snow chances will
be lost over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before the main lift
gets here. The NBM mean gives the higher elevations 5" of snow, with
maybe the highest peaks getting 6" to 7". The NBM mean only gives
the far northwest combined Panhandles around 1" with less than half
an inch further into the central Panhandles. Overall this system is
not looking favorable for any significant moisture, but will be
watch for potential winter impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Thanks to the cold front on Wed, see short term discussion, Thu is
looking to have some fairly cool afternoon highs in the lower to mid
40s. The NBM has backed off on some cooler air moving in with
previous forecast packages only having highs in the 30s on Thu. This
is probably thanks to this system moving in and out much sooner than
previous model runs. Not much else to talk about in the long term as
temperatures are set to rebound back into the 50s to maybe lower 60s
with no foreseeable precipitation chances. A weak cold front may
temporarily pull back temperatures a bit for Sunday with the
northeast seeing afternoon temperatures in the 40s with mid to upper
50s in the central to southwestern combined Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions will likely continue with this TAF cycle. Winds
out of the south are expected with some gusts up to 25-30 kts,
particularly at KAMA. Winds will decrease around sunset and will
eventually switch to out of the north behind a cold front. Mostly
clear skies are expected over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05