530
AXNT20 KNHC 162338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell:
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters N of the discussion area will support rough to
very rough seas over the western Atlantic Fri through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W on Friday. The area of
12 ft seas will spread SE on Sat, covering the waters N of 27N
between 50W and 70W by Sat night. The swell will then start to
subside over the discussion waters, falling below 12 ft Sun night.
Seas with this swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of
30N between 55W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34.5W S of
15N, and moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 31W
and 39W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W S of
14N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 49W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to near 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 06.5N31W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N
east of 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 25.5N93W
southeastward through the Yucatan Channel. Isolated thunderstorms
are occurring in the vicinity of the trough. Weak ridging extends
over the rest of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring in the central and eastern
Gulf to east of the surface trough, with light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas noted in the west-central through southwestern
basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
early next week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas over much of the basin. A cold front may reach
the northern Gulf waters by Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward through northern Hispaniola and just south of Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this front
in the north-central Caribbean, and gusty winds and rapidly
building seas are likely near this activity. Elsewhere, a surface
trough has been analyzed from the central Gulf of America through
the Yucatan Channel, and moderate NE winds are occurring to the
east of this feature in the lee of Cuba. A weak pressure gradient
prevails across the rest of the Caribbean waters. Gentle to
moderate S winds are noted over the far eastern Caribbean with
light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in
the far eastern Caribbean, and 2 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds and
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh
winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on large swell impacting the area Fri through the weekend.

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N53W
southwestward to 23N63W, where it transitions to a stationary
front and extends through northern Hispaniola. Scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and to the east of
this front in the central Atlantic and north of the Lesser
Antilles. Strong to locally near-gale force winds and 8 to 12 ft
seas are occurring to the south and east of the front, generally
north of 20N between 45W and 60W. In the wake of the front,
moderate to locally fresh NW winds and locally rough seas are
noted. To the west, another cold front extends from 31N68W to
29N73.5W, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas
are occurring north of this front. Elsewhere, a surface trough has
been analyzed from 30.5N34.5W to 24.5N38W, and fresh to strong
winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted in the vicinity of this
trough. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high centered near 23.5N28.5W extends
ridging through the rest of the tropical Atlantic, with gentle
winds occurring near the center of the high. Moderate to fresh W
to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are occurring north of the high
north of 25N, with moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 6
to 7 ft seas occurring to the south, generally south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move
across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then
build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are
expected across the waters N of 25N through at least Sat before
winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across
the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N
through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover
much of the waters E of 70W by Sat. Seas will then subside from
west to east the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Very rough seas will move into the waters N of 27N and E of 70W
from early Fri through Sat night.

$$
ADAMS