924
AXNT20 KNHC 091826
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry:
Tropical Storm Jerry is near 15.9N 59.1W or about 270 nm ESE of
the Northern Leeward Islands at 09/1500Z. It is moving west-
northwest at 16 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Seas are peaking near 23 ft just northeast of the center. Heavy
rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 140 nm in a
southeastern semicircle, and up to 50 nm in northwestern
semicircle from the center. Jerry is expected to turn toward the
northwest later today, then toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed Friday and Saturday. This will bring Jerry close or
just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight. Gradual strengthening is anticipated and Jerry could
become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday. Swells
generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward
Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.shtml for more details.
For the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will
continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of
Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi
States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy
downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially
in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please, stay up to date
with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your
local weather agency.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
are prohibiting any significant convection.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican
Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west
around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from the Cayman
Islands southward to near western Panama. It is moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the waters north of Costa Rica, Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near Bissau, then curves west-southwestward to 10N18W. An
ITCZ then continues from 10N18W across 08N35W to 08N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and up
to 125 nm north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the trough and ITCZ from 04N to 09N
between 16W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain
across eastern Mexico.

Convergent surface winds are coupling with tropical moisture to
cause scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
southwestern Gulf. A surface trough stretching across the Florida
Straits is producing isolated thunderstorms near southern Florida,
including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a weak cold front extends
west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the northwest
Gulf where it continues as a stationary front to beyond Corpus
Christi. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
are present north of 22N, and light to gentle with locally
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure associated with some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved inland over
southern Mexico, and development is not expected. Heavy rain and
gusty winds will continue across portions of southern Mexico
today. Elsewhere, a building high pressure north of the Gulf will
promote moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf
today through Sat, with fresh to strong NE winds over the
northeastern Gulf waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm
Jerry.

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades and
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the south-central basin. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea. .

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass to the northeast
and bring brief fresh to strong southerly winds to the Leeward
Islands Fri. Otherwise, no significant wind from Jerry is expected
to affect the Caribbean. However, large E swell will move through
the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands this afternoon
through Fri, and then NE swell through the Anegada Passage early
Fri through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the
central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon, and reintroduce
easterly trade winds across the eastern basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning
on Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front curves west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N33W to south of Bermuda at 29N64W. A
surface trough is seen farther west near 68W, northeast of the
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident near and up to 165 nm south of the front. Similar
convection is found near and southeast of the trough from 21N to
27N between 60W and 71W. Another surface trough is generating
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the east
Florida coast. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are dominating waters north of 23N and west of
69W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of
24N between 35W and 69W. For the tropical Atlantic water from 08N
to 23N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/central Bahamas,
outside the direct impact of Tropical Storm Jerry, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 7 to 12 ft
are noted. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
17.1N 60.9W this evening, 19.0N 62.4W Fri morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.7N 63.1W Fri evening, 24.2N 63.2W Sat morning,
26.5N 62.9W Sat evening, and 28.5N 62.4W Sun morning. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.3N 59.4W early
Mon. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop
offshore of northeastern Florida Sat and move northeastward
through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur
north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri. A cold front will
develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north
Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas
from Sat through Sun morning.

$$

Chan