271
FXUS61 KBGM 100539
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures return today with high pressure remaining in
place. Rain showers return this weekend and are expected to continue
into early next week. Temperatures will trend cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A fairly pleasant fall day is in store today as temperatures will be
closer to average with highs in the 50s and low 60s. High pressure
slides east but will remain in control. Winds will pick up some over
the western half of the region as a weak disturbance associated with
an upper low dips south over the Central Great Lakes. Overnight,
skies will start out clear but sky cover will increase as the
disturbance approaches Western NY and a coastal low begins to
develop well south of the region. Temperatures will fall into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. There may be some patchy frost in N. Oneida
and higher elevations of the Catskills, but with the cloud cover
increasing and breezy winds, confidence is too low to issue a frost
advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The weak system that is dropping south will clip NY/PA and merges
with the coastal low this weekend. Spotty showers will be possible
on Saturday as these two systems approach each other. Showers become
more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coastal low
will slowly move from the Carolinas up to DELMARVA Sunday so showers
are expected to persist through the overnight hours as well. Winds
will become gusty Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens over the
Northeast as the system moves closer to the region.

Saturday will be one of the warmest days over the next week as
temperatures climb into the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s
and low 50s. With rain and clouds over the region, Sunday will be
slightly cooler but most locations should see 60s once again.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The aforementioned coastal low will support additional rain showers
through at least Monday. The low will drift out to sea on Tuesday
as a flattening ridge moves in from the west. Drier conditions
are then expected around midweek, though some weak waves moving
along the zonal flow and a trough north of the region may kick
off spotty showers throughout the rest of the long term forecast
period. Temperatures will generally tend cooler throughout this
period with conditions near or colder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is in place with dry conditions with VFR
prevailing at all terminals. ELM has a small chance at IFR fog
but confidence is very low so any restrictions were not put in
the TAFs. Some low clouds try to work into the region after 0Z
this evening but may not be thick or widespread enough to cause
any MVFR cigs.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR; areas of
morning low clouds/valley fog.

Late Sunday into Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers
possible and associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG