Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280716
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers continue today over the Poconos and Catskills as a
frontal system moves through. Showers come to an end tonight and dry
conditions will persist through the start of the weekend. A weak
system will bring scattered showers to the region late Saturday and
Saturday night. Temperatures will be cool to finish out the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Lines of rain showers will continue to clip the Poconos and
Catskills today as a frontal boundary moves through the region.
Behind the passing front, high pressure will keep conditions dry.
The lingering rain showers will come to an end by this evening and
dry conditions will persist through the rest of the near term
forecast period. With cooler air filtering into the region today,
temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday only climbing
into the 40s. Cloudy skies today will clear out from the west
tonight. Given the clearer skies and a colder air mass
continuing to push in, temperatures were manually bumped down
one to two degrees below guidance.

Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected for Friday. Another cool
day is expected as temperatures will once again only max out in the
40s. Some higher elevation locations may fall just short of 40.
With the environment drying out, dewpoints were lowered using a
blend of Consall, CMC, NBM tenth percentile, and NBM. Low-
level flow becomes stronger Friday afternoon, and soundings are
favorable for mixing. Gusts of 20 to 30+ mph are expected by the
evening hours. Thanks to these gusty winds, apparent temps will
be in the 20s and 30s during the day for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
135 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are centered around the gusty
northwest winds Friday and Saturday with generally dry
conditions until a weak warm front lifts a batch of rain into
the area late Sat afternoon.

An area of low pressure at the surface 150 miles off the coast
of NJ, along with an upper short wave, will be lifting
north/newd Friday morning. As this system continues to move to
the north off the New England coast later in the day Friday, the
system is expected deepen which will act to tighten the sfc
pres gradient over inland areas of the Northeast as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes. This tightening pres
gradient is expected to induce sustained northwest winds around
20 mph and occasional gusts 30 to 35 mph through the day Friday,
Fri night and into Saturday.

The air mass is expected to be quite dry with PWs around 0.25
inch. 850mb temperatures advecting in from the northwest will
range from -7 to -9 deg C. Conditions will not be favorable for
lake effect snow with very minimal moisture and temperatures too
warm aloft.

Heights aloft will gradually rise Friday night into Saturday,
especially across the Great Lakes. A fast moving clipper-type
system will track from the southern Great Lakes into the
northern Mid Atlantic region on the heels of the ridge later on
Saturday. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the
north-south placement/track of this wave. The latest ECMWF
keeps it a closed sfc low with a much more northern track, while
most of the other deterministic guidance keeps it an open wave
with a southerly track. At this point, cannot rule out a low
chance (20-30%) of some light rain moving in late in the day
Saturday.

Temperatures on Friday will be on the cooler side, especially
with that cold northwest flow bringing in the Canadian air mass.
Highs will only reach into the 40s. Friday night lows
temperatures will drop back into the 20s to near 30. Could feel
like temperatures in the teens with the inclusion of the wind.
Some ridging moving on Saturday will relax the temperatures and
allow for some 50s, especially south of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
135 PM update...

The short wave will continue passing through Sat night with
rain chances around 30 to 40% and possibly some snow mixing (20
to 30% chance) in over elevations above 1400 feet in central NY.
Temperatures in the 30s Saturday night will warm into the 40s
and 50s during the day as the system exits to the east. Weak
high pressure is expected to build into and out of the area
Sunday and early Sun night before the next system over the
central US starts to move in on Monday. This system on Monday,
and likely lasting into Tuesday, is not being resolved with much
consensus among the deterministic model guidance. There is also
quite a bit of spread in the various ensemble suites, so will
continue with the standard model/ensemble blend this far out.
Temperatures look relatively seasonal with highs in the 40s and
50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings are expected through the rest of the
early morning hours at all terminals. AVP may see brief LIFR
ceilings. Conditions will improve during the daytime hours and
all terminals will be back to VFR later this afternoon. Fog may
be possible at AVP this morning, though visibilities are not
expected to drop below 5 miles. North to northwesterly winds
will be fairly light throughout this period with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts. Some gusts up to 15 kts will be possible
at BGM today.


Outlook...


Thursday night into Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A few rain showers and
associated restrictions.(Moderate confidence)

Monday...Mainly VFR; low chance of showers. (Moderate
confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BTL


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