158
FXUS61 KBGM 212350
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
650 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure will pass DELMARVA overnight and
spread light rain into northeast Pennsylvania. Another weak
front and clipper system passes by just to the north on Sunday,
with a chance for a few rain or snow showers in Central NY. High
pressure returns on Monday, bringing mainly sunny skies and
mild temperatures across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The latest trend in the model guidance for tonight is to bring the
weak wave of low pressure a little further north and tracking
off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday morning. light rain showers
are expected across much of NE PA overnight with rainfall
amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Saturday will feature a colder NW flow pattern, with 850mb temps
around -5C or -6C by afternoon. This may try to develop a weak lake
effect response...but likely this will only be an increase in
clouds across Central NY and possibly a flurries or light
sprinkles. Otherwise, skies look to remain overcast to mostly
cloudy through much of the day across Central NY...with clearing
skies and some afternoon sun likely for NE PA and Sullivan
County NY.

For Saturday night, skies will clear, so adjusted low
temperatures down a few degrees below NBM guidance, with lows
down into the low 20s most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front pushes across the area Sunday as a weak clipper
system passes by just to the north by Sunday evening. This
system will keep more clouds around north of the Twin Tiers on
Sunday, with a few rain or wet snow showers further north in
Central NY. NE PA remains dry and partly to mostly sunny on
Sunday. This system will push a cold front through the region
Sunday night with brief cold air advection and NW flow
developing Sunday night into Monday morning. T850 dips to -6C
to -8C depending on the model, so cold see a brief period of
lake effect snow showers early Monday morning. At this time,
boundary layer temperatures are marginal and may be too warm for
any snow in the lower elevations, but the hills could see up to
a half inch of snow by daybreak on Monday.

A large high pressure system then settles into the Mid-Atantic
and Northeast US for Monday. This will bring seasonably mild
weather for the start of the week. Clouds will be on the
increase for Monday night, out ahead of the next warm front.
Current model guidance timing keeps it dry overnight though with
lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm air advection on Tuesday with a warm front pushing into the
region. This will bring periods of rain showers and plenty of
clouds, but temperature will be above average and on the mild
side through Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s on
Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches the area sometime around
Thanksgiving (Thursday). The exact timing and magnitude of the
cold air mass remains uncertain at this time, but models have
been trending warmer and for a shorter-lived cold period than
previous runs have advertised. Still expecting a couple of days
of below average readings by the end week. The cold air
advection may also favor lake effect snow showers for portions
of the forecast area, but still too early to pin point at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief shower passed through RME just before the TAFs were
issued but conditions are improving back to VFR there. At RME
and SYR, conditions will be mainly VFR but some brief periods
of MVFR ceilings will be possible. For the other Central NY
terminals, conditions will start out VFR but then ceilings will
fall into MVFR/Fuel Alt overnight. Fuel Alt ceilings are
currently present at AVP along with some fog/mist. Those
conditions will continue through tomorrow morning as a system
moves through with rain showers after 06z tonight. All terminals
are expected to improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon but there
is some uncertainty on sky cover and how quickly skies scatter
out.

Winds winds will generally be out of the west and fairly calm
overnight. Between 09 and 12z, winds become northwesterly and
slightly stronger with some gusts between 10 and 15 kts
Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Scattered rain/snow showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJT