353
FXUS61 KBGM 231140
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
640 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will push through the area today into
tonight bringing scattered rain and snow showers, especially for
central NY. High pressure returns on Monday, with clearing skies and
seasonable temperatures expected. The frontal system brings periods
of rain and mild temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front
then moves through the area Wednesday night, bringing colder
temperatures along with a chance for lake effect snow toward the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A series of fronts will moves through the area today, bringing
scattered snow showers this morning, changing to mainly rain showers
in the afternoon. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light,
less than two-tenths of an inch up toward the I-90 corridor, fading
to just a few hundreths of an inch for the Twin Tiers. The Wyoming
Valley area is mainly dry, but can`t rule out a few stray showers
from time to time today. After a cool start early this morning, down
into the 20s and low 30s, it will warm up into the 40s this afternoon.
South winds 7-15 mph shift southwest, then westerly this afternoon
with gusts up to 20 mph forecast. Lake effect rain and snow
showers lingering tonight with the colder NW flow and 850 mb
temperatures around -5C. It should be a fairly weak lake
response, but a few of the higher elevation locations in CNY
could end up seeing a light coating to 1 inch of snow; mainly in
the southern Tug Hill plateau of N. Oneida county and elevations
above 1800 or 2000 feet for the rest of Central NY. Overnight
lows only dip down into the 30s tonight, with many of the low
elevation locations staying above freezing in the mid-30s.

It looks like there will be some lingering lake effect and upslope
stratus clouds around Monday morning, but as high pressure builds,
clouds eventually decrease for more afternoon sunshine. It will be
mild with highs in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
This time period starts of dry Monday night, but clouds do increase
out ahead of the next low pressure system. The clouds and steady
south winds keep overnight lows elevated in the 30s for most
locations. There remains some uncertainty in the exact start time of
the incoming rain on Tuesday, but current indications are chances
for showers ramping up along and west of I-81 later in the morning
or early afternoon. Steady rain is most likely in the afternoon and
evening hours when around a quarter inch of rain is expected.
Otherwise, Tuesday will be overcast and mild with highs in the mid-
40s to lower 50s and a steady south wind continuing at 8-15 mph.

Tuesday night features more clouds, scattered showers and very mild
conditions with temperatures likely holding in the 40s for most
locations. Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and very warm, with
breezy southwest winds expected. Despite the clouds and shower
chances it looks like daytime highs will surge well into the 50s and
perhaps even a few spots in the low 60s. Chances for rain do
increase quite a bit in the afternoon, with showers likely north of
Binghamton, across Central NY.

The timing of the strong cold front is now faster in the latest
guidance, and it appears to move through our area from west to east
Wednesday evening into the overnight. 850mb temperatures sharply
fall to around -9C before daybreak Thursday. The frontal showers
will transition to lake effect showers behind the front overnight;
eventually changing over to snow showers late at night. Lows do dip
down below freezing in many locations, ranging from the mid-20s to
lower 30 in most locations. Initial indications are for a west-
southwest or southwest flow behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The potential for lake effect snow showers is increasing
Thanksgiving Day through Friday night or early Saturday. Initially,
on Thursday the flow looks to be west or west-southwest off of Lake
Erie and Ontario. This will still bring scattered to numerous snow
showers to portions of Central NY as temperatures aloft fall to
around -9C during the day. Most of the snow showers may actually
come off of lake Erie and spread into the higher elevations of
Central NY with the 240-260 degree flow (if this holds). In this
type of flow the lake Ontario snow band would remain north of our
forecast area...however uncertainty remains in the exact flow and
timing of this lake effect situation.

Current guidance would then suggest the flow veers more west or
even west-northwest heading into late Thursday night, Friday
and Friday night as the mid and upper level trough axis pushes
through. The environment is expected to remain favorable for
lake effect snow as 850mb temperatures hover between about -10C
and -12C, with plenty of moisture extending up to and beyond
700mb...and even early hints as lake to lake connections. Using
the latest ensemble data (07z NBM) probabilities for greater
than 7" of snow in 48 hours (ending 7 AM EST Saturday) are
increasing across portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida
counties. Again, exact time and details such as snow amounts and
lake effect band placements remain uncertain at this time.
However, probabilities of 7 inches or more snow Thursday through
Friday night are now between 30-70% across the three counties
noted above. The 90th percentile is indicating some rather
impressive amounts, especially across the southern Tug Hill
region. This potential lake effect will be something we keep
close tabs on in the coming days as details become more clear.
The snow potential was mentioned in the HWO, as it could impact
holiday or post holiday travel. Temperatures will be much colder
for the end of the week into the weekend; looks for highs in
the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s and even upper 10s by
Friday night. West to northwest winds will be quite breezy to
windy, with gusts up to 30 mph by Friday.

By Saturday the lake effect snow will likely be winding down and
diminishing as the upper level trough exits the region. Uncertainty
remains later Saturday into Sunday in regards to an incoming warm
front and if it will produce precipitation for our area. Kept the
official forecast in line with the latest NBM ensemble data which
gave chances for rain and snow showers, especially by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the mid
morning hours.

A disturbance will move into the area from the west by mid
morning. The first showers that move in are expected to be
a mix of rain and snow, changing to rain by late morning. Lake
effect rain showers are expected at BGM/ITH/SYR/RME after 17z
into the late evening hours. MVFR and Fuel Alt restrictions will
accompany these rain showers. RME could see IFR restrictions in
the afternoon if a few heavier showers move over the terminal.


Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Thursday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC