216
FXUS64 KBMX 101117
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
517 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

-  Wind chill values will be as low as the middle teens to lower
   20s this morning.

-  Breezy conditions are expected through this afternoon, with
   wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph, and a low chance of wind gusts over
   35 mph. Low relative humidities will result in increased fire
   danger this afternoon.

-  Temperatures will drop into the lower 20s tonight, ending the
   growing season for all of Central Alabama. Typically colder
   locations may reach the upper teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

Today and Tonight:

A highly amplified longwave trough is located over the eastern
CONUS currently. An embedded very cold upper low (500mb
temperatures of -40C) is currently near Chicago and will slide
south-southeastward across the southern Appalachians today. Strong
cold air advection is taking place over Central Alabama currently.
Have seen a few light radar echoes in far northeast Alabama, but
these and the associated clouds have been drying up as they move
southward, so the window for any overnight flurries is closing.
Temperatures will drop below freezing by daybreak across the
northern half to two-thirds of Central Alabama, with wind chills
in the upper teens to lower 20s. A freeze warning remains in
effect. Despite the freeze this morning, with a more significant
freeze on the way tonight will wait until Tuesday to end the
growing season for all counties.

With 850mb temps as cold as -12C, temperatures will struggle to
warm up today, with temperatures remaining in the 30s at higher
elevations and far northern locations. The cold air advection will
remain favorable for gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest winds
in the mixed layer will be just under 30 kts. A low to medium
chance of an occasional wind gust to advisory criteria (30 kts)
exists, but wind gusts should largely remain just below criteria.
As dew points drop into the lower teens, low RH values will be
present especially in the southern counties which warm up slightly
more. Given the associated winds, this will result in borderline
red flag conditions/high fire danger, and outdoor burning is
highly discouraged. Another batch of moisture with the upper low,
in the DGZ, will approach the area, but remains shallow. This
suggests flurry/snow shower potential will remain just northeast
of our area, but there is a low/non-zero chance in our far
northeast counties of non-impactful flurries.

Tonight, the center of a strong surface high will slide eastward
from the Plains to southern Alabama. This will result in winds
becoming light to calm and ideal radiational cooling conditions
especially in our southern counties. The end result will be lows
in the lower 20s at most locations with typically colder spots in
the upper teens. The freeze watch has been upgraded to a freeze
warning for all of Central Alabama.

Tuesday through Friday:

A clipper system moving through Ontario on Tuesday will cause
strong low-level southwesterly flow to develop to our northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night. With associated warm air advection
temperatures will trend milder, though lows will still drop below
freezing in our southeast half Tuesday night with light winds. The
associated cold front will stall across the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. While there will be a notable increase in dew points
from the teens to the 50s, no precipitation is expected.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, especially with
southerly winds developing on Friday ahead of the next system.

Saturday and Sunday:

Deterministic models have come into better agreement with an upper
low forming in the base of a western CONUS trough, but remaining
progressive and connected to the trough as it moves through the
southern CONUS by Sunday. Ensemble cluster analysis still
indicated plenty of spread in the timing of this trough. The
progressive clusters generally indicate a narrow warm sector with
a high shear, low CAPE environment. This suggests that any severe
threat for late Saturday night and Sunday is on the lower end at
this time, but with plenty of time for it to be monitored.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025

VFR meteorological conditions through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies across central Alabama terminals. Steady northwest
winds will become more gusty again during the daylight hours.
Winds will ultimately become light this evening through the end of
the forecast period.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values drop below 25 percent for a couple hours in far
southern portions of Central Alabama, and will be in the 25 to 35
percent range elsewhere. 20ft winds will gust above 25 mph
areawide. While the RH and wind criteria for a red flag warning
will be met in our far southern counties, the national significant
fire potential outlook only indicates a low risk. RH values drop
below 25 percent for several hours Tuesday across a larger portion
of Central Alabama, but winds will be much lighter. Moisture
returns on Wednesday with high RH values.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 10:
KEET: 30/1996

November 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

November 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     40  21  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    40  22  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  41  23  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  45  24  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      43  23  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      43  26  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  46  23  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        47  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-
Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-
Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION.../61/