554
FXUS61 KBUF 021055
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian-sourced high pressure will maintain dry weather through the
upcoming weekend. After a cool start with some areas of frost this
morning, a day-to-day warming trend will ensue with above average
temperatures through the end of the work week, soaring to well above
average levels this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large area of strong Canadian high pressure centered over southern
Quebec today will drift southward to the southern New England coast
by early Friday morning while maintaining dry conditions across the
lower Great Lakes region and Northeast.

Otherwise, after a chilly start to the day with some areas of frost
across portions of western and north-central NY, a developing low
level southerly return flow on the west side of high pressure and a
dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to rebound nicely today
with readings climbing some 30 to even 40 degrees before reaching
their daytime highs. It will not be as chilly tonight with
seasonably cool overnight lows, and maybe a bit of patchy frost
across portions of Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
During this period surface high pressure will remain situated along
or just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines...
while aloft upper-level ridging will amplify across the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast in response to digging troughing across
the Rockies and northern Plains states.

The resulting large-scale subsidence...dry air...and gradual warm
air advection regime will result in fair dry weather and a day-to-
day warming trend through this period. This will bring about a
return to summerlike warmth...with daytime highs/nightly lows
climbing to roughly 15 degrees/10 degrees above normal respectively
by Sunday/Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday through Wednesday the aforementioned upper level trough will
make its way eastward to the Great Lakes...with an attendant broad
surface low eventually pushing its trailing cold front southeastward
across our region sometime in the later Tuesday-Tuesday night-
Wednesday time frame. After another warm and dry day on Monday...
this should bring increasing chances for showers and possibly a
couple isolated thunderstorms during the latter portions of this
period...particularly between Tuesday night and Wednesday. Following
the passage of the cold front...temperatures will pull back much
closer to seasonal normals (i.e., highs in the lower to mid 60s) for
the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large area of Canadian-sourced high pressure will keep widespread
VFR flight conditions and mainly light winds intact through the TAF
period, with just some thin upper level cirrus clouds passing
overhead at times. As low level moisture starts to slowly increase
later in the TAF period, there may be a modest increase in the
presence of valley fog across the interior Southern Tier late
tonight into early Friday morning, however is expected to remain
east of KJHW.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and localized IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient continues to weaken as high pressure slides south
into New England and the two tropical systems pull well east into
the central Atlantic. Thus expect mainly light to gentle offshore
breezes today, before winds veer more southerly to southwesterly for
tonight right through this weekend. This will produce no more than
mainly light chop at times as high pressure remains anchored across
the lower Great Lakes and New England, however flow will be
predominantly offshore through the period, with much of the wave
action directed into our open lake waters and Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006-007-020-
     021.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM