771
FXUS61 KBUF 062322
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
722 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure draped along the eastern seaboard will slowly drift
offshore today...while providing our region with one last day of dry
and unseasonably warm weather. A sharp cold front will then generate
some beneficial rainfall as it slowly crosses the region Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...with Canadian high pressure then building across
our region and ushering in dry and much cooler weather for Wednesday
and Thursday...when high temperatures appear likely to remain mostly
confined to the 50s. Continued dry weather and a gradual warming
trend will then follow for Friday and Saturday as the high slides
off the New England coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Very warm and sunny weather resides across western and north-central
NY this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to reach the 80s for
most locations.

GOES Water Vapor imagery shows a long wave trough over central
Canada to the Northern Plains this afternoon. A southerly flow
extends from the Gulf Coast states to the Great Lakes region, while
an upper level ridge moves off the New England Coast. At the
surface, a cold front extends from northwest Quebec to Lake Michigan
this afternoon. A southwest flow will deepen and strengthen across
the Ohio Valley tonight. The combination of moisture advection and
increasing ascent from a sharpening trough and cold front will
result in showers expanding across the forecast area Tuesday
morning. Modest instability is expected across the region Tuesday,
and a few thunderstorms are possible, especially right ahead of the
cold front. Anafrontal showers are expected as a corridor of deep
moisture lags behind the front and ahead of the main trough Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Rainfall will taper off from west to east
Tuesday night.  Rainfall amounts will average 0.75" to 1.25" across
western NY and 1-2" across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
Localized higher amounts are possible within thunderstorms.

Increasing winds and cloud cover will result in mild weather with
overnight lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight. Due to the
frontal passage and widespread showers Tuesday, daytime highs will
range from the upper 60s to low 70s across western NY to the low to
mid 70s east of the Genesee Valley. Cooler Tuesday night with lows
in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather with a brief stretch of much more fall-like temperatures
this period as a strong sfc high averaging 1033mb builds over the
forecast area from the Upper Great Lakes. A polar continental
airmass advecting into the region with 850mb temps bottoming out
from 0C (NY/PA border) to -4C (N. Country) by Wednesday night will
translate to daytime highs only in the 50s in most areas both
Wednesday and Thursday, though the latter will likely be the cooler
of the two.

The main story in terms of more `impactful` weather this period will
be on the potential for frost and even sub-freezing sfc temperatures
in some locations both Wednesday and Thursday nights as temps dip
into the 30s and even upper 20s. While confidence is high in chilly
nights with fairly widespread frost both nights, total frost
coverage and extent of sub-freezing temps will be driven by subtle
differences in the synoptic setup between the two nights, mainly in
regards to the position of the sfc high. By Thursday morning it is
expected to be centered to the NW across southern Ontario, and by
early Friday morning near the eastern NY border. Mostly clear skies
and generally light winds are thus expected both nights, though
modest northerly BL flow across the lakes Wednesday night may result
in some patchy lake clouds and impede frost development especially
closer to the southern lakeshores. Thursday night the flow will
shift southerly and WAA will be ongoing aloft, though this may be
too weak or begin to late to meaningfully offset the cooler start to
the night and strong radiational cooling conditions. Will be holding
off on frost/freeze headlines due to these uncertainties though they
will inevitably be needed for most, if not all of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong sfc high pressure just east of the region to start the period
Friday morning will weaken some as it slides across southern New
England to the western Atlantic through Saturday. This will maintain
dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes with sfc temperatures
climbing back to near or above average, though nothing close to this
most recent warm stretch.

Guidance continues to heavily diverge on the evolution on the
longwave pattern in the extended period, though especially by the
back half of the weekend and early next week. This appears to be due
to a complex interaction between a mid/upper level impulse moving
east/southeast across the Great Lakes and a coastal low climbing up
the Eastern Seaboard. Uncertainty remains high on any potential
impacts or rainfall these systems may bring, with latest 13z NBM
guidance just nudging sChc PoPs into the forecast area Sunday night
and later Monday. Will continue to monitor trends as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions will prevail for the next 9 to 15 hours across the TAF
region. A moisture laden cold front, with a 40 knot LLJ ahead of it,
will ease its way into the western TAF region tomorrow morning with
widespread rain showers upon it. Instability is low, with MUCAPE
values around 500 J/KG, and a rumble of thunder is possible through
the early afternoon hours, though probability/timing is still too
low at this time to place in the TAFs.

As the cold front passes across the TAF sites, the probability of
thunder will diminish through the afternoon, as well as a lowering
of the ceiling heights to widespread IFR. Light rain is likely to
continue through the final 6 hours of the TAFS. Ceilings across
higher terrain will likely drop to LIFR for a period of time
tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR with widespread rain showers...diminishing
later Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR ceilings early, otherwise VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slowly drift offshore of the eastern seaboard
tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. As a result
southerlies and south-southwesterlies will gradually pick up through
thought. While this will lead to the development of some chop...the
orientation of the flow will direct the greatest wave action across
Canadian waters.

The cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday and
early Tuesday evening...bringing fairly widespread showers and
perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms. In its wake...winds will
freshen and veer to northwesterly and then northerly Tuesday night
and early Wednesday. This will likely bring advisory-worthy
conditions to areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and
possibly also to areas southwest of Dunkirk on Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...HSK/JJR