367
FXUS62 KCAE 021745
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1245 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase later today as low pressure develops to
our east. This will be followed by an extended period of dry
weather courtesy of passing high pressure systems. Temperatures
gradually warm next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Showers possible, mainly in the eastern Forecast Area

An upper level trough will move over the region in the near
term as a coastal low develops southeast of the FA and lifts
north. Moisture will be pulled into eastern SC as PWAT values
increase to around 1.0 inch this evening. A few showers should
develop during afternoon as moisture convergence strengthens
with the highest rain chances across the Pee Dee. Highs will be
cooler than normal, in the mid to upper 60s.

This evening and overnight, the upper trough will move overhead
and the cold pool aloft will lead to steeper 850 to 500 mb lapse
rates and elevated instability. This may be sufficient to
induce scattered showers or possibly a thunderstorm over the
area. The deepest moisture will move out of the area by early
Monday morning leading to decreasing convective coverage. As
skies clear from the west, there could be some patchy fog that
develops due to lingering low level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Dry weather returns with slightly below average temperatures.

By Monday morning, the upper trough axis will be over the area but
much drier air is expected to move in behind the trough. HREF probs
indicate greater than 70% probability of PWATs less than 3/4 of an
inch, with PWATs decreasing through the morning. While it`s not out
of the question a few showers could linger in the Pee Dee, guidance
continues to support drier conditions for mid to late morning and
into the afternoon as winds shift out of the northwest. While dew
points have trended lower in blended guidance, with downslope flow
developing, monitoring for this trend to continue and dew points may
need to be lowered further with subsequent updates. Temperatures
near to slightly below average, in the mid to upper 60s for highs.
Lows Monday night expected to drop into the low to mid 40s. While
skies will be clear, lingering northerly wind in the boundary layer
will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions, although this
will somewhat be countered by cold advection.

Upper ridging begins to strengthen over the Gulf with heights
recovering into Tuesday. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees
warmer, with heights near normal leading to near normal
temperatures. High pressure at the surface will lead to light winds
and clear skies, extending into Tuesday night. This will lead to
near ideal radiational cooling. Probability of minimum temperatures
below 40 remains around 40-50% so will need to monitor the potential
for a frost advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warming through the week and dry.

- Increasing moisture for the weekend.

Upper ridging generally expected to persist over the area through
the extended period. Highest height anomalies will remain along the
TX/LA coast which GEFS mean indicates above average heights, around
1 standard deviation above normal. Blended temperatures are expected
to remain a few degrees above average as a result with dry weather
expected to continue with high probability (greater than 70%) of
LREF PWATs less than 3/4 of an inch through at least Friday. A bit
of a moisture increase possible for the weekend with increasing
ensemble members showing at least light rain possible as a low
pressure system passes to the north but vast majority of members
keep any precipitation to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak coastal low will develop today and tonight which will
promote scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening. The highest rain chances are across the
Pee Dee and into the eastern FA but CAMs show very limited
coverage near the terminals. OGB would be the most likely to be
impacted so we have included VCSH at the site. Convection may
continue overnight as the cold pool aloft moves overhead but as
we near 12Z Monday morning the upper low and coastal low move
out of the area leading to diminishing rain chances. As skies
clear from the west after 09Z stratus or fog may develop due to
lingering low level moisture. MVFR or IFR restrictions will be
possible at all TAF sites. Winds will be light through the
period, generally out of the east until 00Z then pick up out of
the NW Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some residual showers and low cigs
possible Monday morning but otherwise no widespread restrictions
expected beyond Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$