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000
FXUS62 KCAE 131755
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
155 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the southeastern states through
early in the week with resulting dry and warm conditions. The
ridge will weaken midweek as a couple of cold fronts approach
the area. On Friday, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Temperatures will be above well above normal through most of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet weather ongoing across much of the southeastern CONUS. 500 hPa
hand analysis this morning revealed strong height rises extending
from the OH Valley into the Carolinas as the trough axis departs to
our northeast. This has led to nice subsidence across the area, with
a surface high pressure sliding into the southern Gulf Coast states.
The expansive and strong surface low pressure system remains to our
north, so between that and the surface high across the Gulf States
we maintain fairly strong surface winds. Winds have frequently
gusted between 20 and 30 mph this afternoon, but the pressure
gradient is slowly expected to weaken as we get into the evening so
those will likely slowly decrease as well. Temps are generally in
the low 70s currently and should top out in the mid 70s this
afternoon. With dewpoints in the low 30s most everywhere, its pretty
much picture perfect out there. Surface high should shift towards
the forecast area tonight, with winds falling off fairly quickly. I
generally think lows could be in the mid 40s in our cool spots, but
should be in the upper 40s to low 50s most everywhere else. Clear
skies will continue all night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...West-northwest flow aloft continues
across the region with surface ridge centered across Florida and
offshore. Modest increase in moisture with precipitable water
increase to around 1 inch as low-level flow becomes
south-westerly. Warm advection along with strong subsidence
downslope wind component in the afternoon expected so
temperatures will likely to rise into the low to mid 80s. A weak
mid level short wave moves through in evening, so some mid
level clouds expected overnight. Lows near 60 with some clouds
and mixing behind the short wave trough.

Monday and Monday night...Upper level heights begin to rise and
subsidence appears stronger. Some clouds may be focused near the
NC/SC border in the evening and overnight as a weak cold front
drops south from the Mid Atlantic into North Carolina. However
with ridging over the area, any showers should remain north of
the region. Guidance temps consistent with temperatures rising
into the mid to upper 80s (temps well above normal), lows again
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper heights continue to rise Tuesday, but some mid and high
level clouds still over the ridge especially to the north late
in the day/evening. So another warm day expected, about the same
as Monday. Deep low in the Midwest moving toward the Great Lakes
region Wednesday and begin to fill. Models in good agreement
with ridge over the southeast weakening. Mid level short wave
trough moving through in the evening. Think still too dry for
showers but mid level clouds should increase. Any showers should
be focused in the Carolina Mountains or north of the area.
Ensembles consistent with an anomalously deep upper low over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast late in the week with
zonal flow aloft/weakly cyclonic flow over the Carolinas. This
trough will drive a weak cold front through the area Friday.
There should be enough moisture/lift for isolated showers or
thunderstorms. Air mass behind the front is not very cold, so
temperatures remain above normal into the weekend and dry.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR the 24 hr forecast period.

Dry air is in place and high pressure is shifting into the region
behind yesterday`s secondary cold front passage. Winds are still
breezy, with frequent gusts at each TAF site approaching or
exceeding 20 knots this afternoon. This should continue through the
evening hours before diminishing after 00z. Clear skies and
light winds are expected tonight. Tomorrow, winds will pick up
again around 15z but will only be 5-10 knots generally. Clear
skies expected throughout the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...