046
FXUS62 KCAE 190717
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
317 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture across the region will keep rain chances
likely lingering into Sunday, especially across the CSRA. Drier
air will be over the region for Monday through Wednesday along
with warming temperatures.The next frontal boundary will
approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north
of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue across the
northern Midlands early this morning as a backdoor cold front
slowly moves south. Low clouds and fog are likely to develop
behind the boundary towards daybreak, especially in locations
that have seen rain tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower
to mid 60s.

A backdoor cold front will continue to slip through the
forecast area with rain chances decreasing across the northern
Midlands this morning. The passage of an upper trough combined
with high PWATs will promote the development of additional
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with convection most
likely over the CSRA and adjacent portions of the southern
Midlands. A few thunderstorms could be strong, especially over
Burke County, GA which is just north of the Marginal (1/5) risk
for severe weather in the Day 1 SPC outlook. Gusty winds will be
the primary severe hazard through there will be a non-zero risk
for large hail as well with any robust thunderstorms. Drier air
will move southward through the day with PoPs decreasing from
north to south through the afternoon and evening hours. Any
lingering showers and thunderstorms should move out of the
region early this evening with decreasing cloudiness tonight.
Northeast winds behind the front combined with widespread
cloudiness will limit how warm temperatures get. Forecast highs
range from the lower to mid 70s in the northern and central
Midlands to the upper 70s in the CSRA and southern Midlands.
With clearing skies and drier air filtering in, a cool night is
anticipated with forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States
from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of
the area tonight. This will keep dry conditions over the
forecast area with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph from
late morning through the afternoon hours. With cool and dry air
in the mid and low levels the only clouds expected through the
period will be some cirrus crossing the region. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to around
60. Radiational cooling will be good tonight however light winds
combined with the cirrus will prevent cooling from becoming
optimal. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s
north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough will continue tracking away from the region
Monday as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf States
through New England. On Tuesday the ridge will migrate slightly
eastward with its progress being slowed by the deep upper level
trough remaining over the western Atlantic. At the surface weak
high  pressure will be in control of the Atlantic Seaboard
keeping drier air over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday.
Pwat values will drop to around 0.9 inches Monday morning and
remain there through Tuesday with model soundings indicating a
weak subsidence inversion. With the subsidence inversion
suppressing convection expect cumulus to develop each day
however vertical development will be limited. Temperatures will
also moderate slightly each day as the upper level ridge builds
into the region and surface flow turns from northeasterly to
easterly on Tuesday. As such afternoon high temperatures on
Monday will be in the low 80s and the mid 80s on Tuesday. With
mostly clear skies and light winds expected each night
radiational cooling will be good allowing overnight lows to fall
into the upper 50s to around 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monitoring for Restrictions Behind a Passing Frontal Boundary...

A backdoor cold front continues to move slowly south through the
northern Midlands tonight. Decreased ceilings are being noted at
stations behind this boundary and guidance remains bullish in
reduced ceilings reaching all terminals prior to daybreak. In
addition to these low clouds, area of fog are also possible,
especially at OGB and AGS. No significant changes were made to
the forecasts besides minor adjustments to the timing. Low
clouds will almost certainly last longer than guidance suggests
they will at this point, which is why this forecast keeps lower
MVFR at all sites through the end of the TAF period. Having said
that, some improvement is likely after 00Z Monday and a new line
will likely be added to the next forecast update to show this. A
few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at the
terminals later today, especially AGS/DNL. This potential has
been omitted from the TAFs for now due to low confidence but may
also be added with the next update if trends continue.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic restrictions from showers
and thunderstorms continue through Sunday evening. Conditions
should improve Sunday night followed by an extended period of
dry weather.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$