942
FXUS62 KCAE 031728
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1228 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry weather is expected this week as a
pair of high pressure centers move through the region.
Temperatures will be near to above normal, gradually warming
each day. The next chance of rain holds off until the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Clearing with dry high pressure building in

This afternoon: WV imagery shows the upper trough lifting
northeastward away from the Carolinas with northwesterly 500mb flow
over the forecast area. Visible satellite shows clearing skies with
only some scattered stratocumulus lingering over the Pee Dee region.
Temperatures are rising through the upper 50s and lower 60s and
should top out in the mid to upper 60s, aided by some downsloping
westerly winds.

Tonight: Skies should be clear overnight as a cool dry air mass
settles over the region. Winds should diminish with sunset and
remain light to calm overnight favoring strong radiational cooling.
The center of the surface high remains to our northwest so not
confident ideal radiational cooling will occur and a 20 knot low
level jet should keep the boundary layer mixed but likely to see min
temps fall back into the lower 40s with some upper 30s possible in
outlying areas. Not expecting widespread frost but also cannot rule
out some sheltered locations developing some patchy frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Sunny and dry with near normal temperatures Tuesday.
- Patchy frost is possible Tuesday night.
- Warmer, dry and breezy on Wednesday.

Weak ridging will give way to a zonal flow aloft during the
short term period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will
pass directly overhead Tuesday into Tuesday night, before
shifting into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A dry backdoor
cold front should drop through the area Wednesday night.

Strong subsidence and a very dry column will result in sunny
skies on Tuesday, with veering winds as the high crosses the
area. Ideal radiational cooling conditions appear to set up
Tuesday night with nearly calm winds and clear skies. The
current NBM-based forecast may be a bit too warm given these
conditions, but looking at the NBM 10th percentile, lows could
potentially bottom out in the mid to upper 30s in a reasonable
worst-case scenario for our typically cooler/low-lying
locations. Either way, a freeze does not look likely but
certainly some patchy frost could be expected.

As a southerly return flow becomes established around the
Atlantic high pressure system, temperatures will be on the rise
across the area, aided by some compressional heating ahead of
the boundary. This is a day where some changes to the NBM
forecast are warranted due to potential impacts to fire weather
users. Have bumped up highs to be more consistent with numerical
guidance. This will result in deeper mixing, which will drop
dewpoints and aid in mixing down some stronger winds aloft.
Relative humidity values could now drop as low as 25-30% in some
areas, with winds gusting as high as 20-25 mph at times during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Continued dry with above normal temperatures through at least
  Friday.
- The next chance of rain arrives Friday night.

Ensembles depict a zonal flow aloft on Thursday, then a
southwest flow developing ahead of a deepening trough to the
west on Friday. The upper trough appears to lift north of the
area Friday night and Saturday, with a significantly deeper
trough approaching from the west on Sunday.

Temperatures will continue to rise above normal through Friday,
with rain-free conditions expected. A weak front could pass
through Friday night into early Saturday and if there is
sufficient moisture advection, a few showers could occur. There
remains a large spread in model solutions for Sunday, but
additional showers are possible ahead of the approaching upper
trough and more significant cold front at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight into
Tuesday. Generally clear skies expected through the forecast period
with a dry air mass in place. West to northwesterly winds around 10
knots with some possible gusts to 15 knots expected through the
afternoon then winds should diminish to less than 5 knots overnight.
Winds should pick back up from the northeast around 5 to 8 knots
after 15z. Fog should not be an issue tonight with the dry air in
place and a 20 knot low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed a
bit.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns through
late week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$