356
FXUS62 KCAE 261659
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1159 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very dry and cold air mass moves in tonight for the remainder
of Thanksgiving week. Temperatures return to near normal values
late in the weekend with increasing confidence in active
weather and much needed rain early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drier air begins moving in this afternoon.
- Secondary cold front moves through tonight.

Deepening upper trough moving through the Great Lakes and into
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon has helped to push an initial
surface front through the forecast area. This front will bring
an initial push of drier air with it, along with gusty winds
throughout the afternoon hours. Rain chances have basically left
the forecast area.  Wind gusts up to 25 mph will remain
possible, but are still expected to remain just below any Lake
Wind Advisory criteria. It will continue to be monitored through
the afternoon. As for temperatures, this will be the last
afternoon for short sleeve shirts as readings will still remain
mild for most areas. Highs will be topping out in the low to
middle 70s. By this evening though, colder temperatures will
begin to push into the area as winds turn more out of the
northwest and a secondary re- enforcing cold front moves through
overnight. This will bring an end to our mild streak of
temperatures as the airmass moving in tonight will bring a good
amount of cold advection along with it. Temperatures tonight
will drop into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Much colder and drier air mass settles over the region.

- Overnight lows likely falling into the 20s.

Upper level trough axis will swing through the Carolinas but
air mass will extremely dry with PWATs at or below a quarter
inch so no precipitation is expected. A reinforcing front will
bring even drier air to the region Thursday night into Friday
with some of the coldest air of the season expected. Highs on
Thursday will be about 15-20 degrees colder than today and below
normal but highs on Friday will be even colder, around 10
degrees below normal struggling to get out of the 40s to around
50 degrees for much of the area. There could be some fire danger
concerns from a meteorological standpoint on Thursday with deep
mixing expected to lower dewpoints into the lower 20s and teens
resulting in critical RH values, although winds should not be
quite as high as today.

Despite the lack of ideal radiational cooling and clear skies,
low temperatures Thursday night are expected to fall below
freezing with strong cold advection as a surface high builds
into the region. The surface high will build over the area on
Friday and be overhead Friday night which should provide near
ideal radiational cooling and result in our coldest night of the
season. There is the possibility of some higher clouds moving
into the area Friday night as upper level flow flattens more
zonally which could impact radiational cooling. However, with
the very dry air mass in place and thinking any cloud cover may
be thin high clouds think lows in the mid 20s are still
reasonable and if the clouds do not arrive then lower 20s may be
more likely especially in the northern and western Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold Saturday then some moderation of temps into early next week.

- Increasing confidence in more active weather pattern next week.

Increasing confidence in a transition to a more active weather
pattern developing early next week as ensemble and global model
guidance is coming into better agreement with the overall
pattern. Saturday continues to look relatively cold but dry with
high pressure overhead. There is some lower confidence in how
cold Saturday night could be depending on how quickly the
surface high shifts offshore and whether or not clouds increase
through the night. The NBM4.3 continues to be an outlier with a
low outside of its own inner quartile range (IQR) on the warm
side (likely a negative effect of the bias correction) while the
NBM5.0 is quite a bit colder with its IQR and a low within it
in the mid 20s which is in line with MOS guidance.

On Sunday into Monday ensemble and global guidance shows upper
level troughing across the western CONUS resulting in
southwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states and with
the surface highs shifting offshore, a significant surge in
moisture is expected with PWATs rising from around 50 percent of
normal Saturday to nearly 150 percent of normal by Sunday
afternoon with a warm advection pattern developing. This will
also result in moderating temperatures with highs on Sunday
about 10-15 degrees warmer than Saturday.

The details of the pattern early next week remain uncertain but
the pattern with deep southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching upper trough would favor increased rain chances
across the forecast area early to mid week and depending on how
much moisture advection occurs there could be a chance for
significant rainfall, which would be welcomed as the area has
been abnormally dry to moderate drought according to the drought
monitor. Temperatures are a bit more uncertain next week also
depending on cloud cover, rainfall and the possibility of some
low level wedging occurring with trends in max temperatures
being a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty winds expected through the daytime
hours.

Initial cold front has pushed east of the area, taking rainfall
chances along with it. Behind this front, skies have turned
mostly sunny with mainly mid and upper level scattered
cloudiness. Winds will be the biggest issue through the daytime
hours into Thanksgiving. Winds ahead of a secondary cold front
still off to the west will be out of the southwest to west, with
gusts of 25 knots possible through sunset. Later tonight as the
secondary front moves through, winds will turn more out of the
northwest. Gusts will diminish, but sustained winds will remain
between 5-10 knots through Thanksgiving day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday with
increasing rain chances and chances for restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$