277
FXUS61 KCLE 100809
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern in store as a strong low pressure system
moves through the Great Lakes region. The low will drag a cold front
east across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface
trough lingers across Lake Erie on Friday while a weak low pressure
system moves through the Ohio Valley. Another cold front
crosses the region on Saturday before high pressure enters on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening low pressure will glide through the southern Great Lakes
region through the near term. The low will move a cold front east
across the local area during the afternoon/evening today. Initial
burst of precipitation will continue to spread across the region.
Generally expecting mostly rain across the western half of the
forecast area, a rain/snow mix along the I-71 corridor, and wet snow
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The snowfall
forecast has trended slightly higher across Northeast Ohio and have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Geauga and Ashtabula
Counties where 3-6" of snowfall is expected. Expect for a snowy and
slick commute Wednesday morning given the timing of highest snowfall
rates with the greatest impacts expected in the Winter Weather
Advisory area.

A brief dry slot moves overhead late this morning/early afternoon
behind the initial push of precipitation before the cold front pushes
east later this afternoon/evening. Precipitation should transition
to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures drop. Most
of the area will see an inch of less of snowfall with the cold
front through temperatures will rapidly fall which may lead to
some slick spots on roadways during the evening commute.
Snowfall will diminish from west to east with the frontal
passage before lake effect snow develops Wednesday evening
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Generally
anticipate an additional 2-4" across Northeast Ohio, 3-5" across
Crawford County PA, and 5-10" across Erie County PA with lake
effect snowfall Wednesday night through Thursday. Have upgraded
the Winter Weather Advisory for Erie County PA to a Winter Storm
Warning as snowfall amounts through the duration of the event
could exceed 10-14" where lake effect bands persist. Given that
the event is a mix of both synoptic and lake enhanced snow,
opted for a Winter Storm Warning as opposed to a Lake Effect
Snow Warning.

Highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s before lows fall into the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight behind the cold front. Remaining
chilly in the upper 20s on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect snow showers will diminish Thursday night
into Friday morning as a drier airmass and high pressure move
into the region. Another clipper will approach the region from
the northwest while weakening on Friday. The system will graze
the local forecast area to the southwest but can`t rule out
some light snow across southwestern portions of the forecast
area Friday morning. Another low pressure system and associated
cold front will impact the Great Lakes region on Saturday
bringing an additional chance for areawide snow showers
Saturday and lake-effect snow returning Saturday night. Highs
in the upper 20s on Friday fall into the low to mid 20s on
Saturday. Overnight lows in the teens are expected Thursday and
Friday night. Much colder on Saturday night with single digit to
lower 10s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An Arctic airmass will impact the region on Sunday with most
guidance showing 850mb temperatures falling to the -18 to -20C
range. This cold air aloft coupled with fairly saturated mid/low
levels and northwesterly mean layer flow suggest that lake effect
snow mentioned above will likely continue into the day on Sunday
before high pressure glides through the region on Monday. Highs in
the teens to low 20s with chilly overnight lows in the single digits
Sunday night. The high will exit to the east through early next week
allowing for temperatures to moderate into the upper 20s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Rapid deterioration in aviation conditions expected over the
next 4-8 hours. A strong clipper system approaching Lake
Michigan will pass north of Lake Erie today, lifting a warm
front north across the area into this morning. Precipitation
is expanding east across the area with rain at TOL/FDY and a mix
at MFD. Light snow has begun at CLE and will reach CAK/YNG/ERI
by 7-8Z. CLE/CAK will transition to a rain/snow mix, eventually
reaching YNG/ERI. IFR ceilings and low visibilities are
expected behind the warm front during the day on Wednesday and
can not rule out patchy fog, especially at CAK/YNG with
visibilities below one mile at times.

A cold front will arrive from northwest to southeast as the
clipper continues east into Quebec late today. The cold front
will cause a transition back to a rain/snow mix, except perhaps
all snow at terminals in the northeast after 21Z.

Winds will also be a concern through the TAF period. Winds will
increase overnight as the gradient tightens and as a 50+ knot
low level jet passes overhead. Most terminals will see wind
gusts of 25-35 knots by 12Z. Started off with a mention of low
level wind sheer at CLE/CAK/YNG where winds are not yet gusting
at the surface. Winds will peak in the 10-13 window in NW Ohio
and then behind the cold front for all locations with gusts of
30-35 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected to continue for portions of the
area Wednesday night in snow showers. Periods of snow showers
will continue in the snowbelt with a widespread snow possible
with another cold front Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine weather conditions are expected to continue through the
end of this week and into the weekend. A strong clipper low pressure
system is currently moving through the Great Lakes region and will
deepen to 988 mb as it tracks north of Lake Erie later today. Winds
will increase from the south and southwest this morning 25 to 35
knots for most of the basin of Lake Erie. Gale warnings will take
into effect at 4 AM and continue through this evening. Waves in the
open water will build 10 to 16 feet with occasional waves up to
20 feet. With the southwesterly Gales today, water levels may
drop to near the critical mark for safe marine navigation on the
western basin of Lake Erie. We will keep an eye on trends and
monitor these lower water levels for the potential of a Low
Water Advisory later today.

After the strong low pressure system passes by, a strong cold front
will move across the lake with northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots
tonight. Waves in the open water this evening will start out 8 to 15
but gradually subside to 5 to 9 feet late tonight. Additional Small
Craft Advisories will be needed and replace the Gale Warning when
they expire this evening. SCA conditions will continue for Thursday
into Thursday night with west-northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots and
waves 4 to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet on Thursday.
Waves will gradually start to subside late Thursday night
between 3 and 5 feet.

A brief break in between weather system will arrive on Friday.
Southwest winds 15 to 30 knots will develop on Friday into Friday
night ahead of the next approaching clipper system. We may have a
brief lull in SCA conditions on Friday but will likely see winds and
waves ramping back up ahead of the next system. Another strong cold
front will arrive on Saturday with west to northwest winds 15 to 30
knots and waves building higher again. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     LEZ143>149.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...77