241
FXUS61 KCLE 080713
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
213 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move through the region today. A
series of low pressure systems will move through the region for the
middle of the week with a weaker low on Tuesday, followed by a
stronger low on Wednesday. High pressure will briefly return for
Thursday before more unsettled weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold northerly flow ahead of high pressure has allowed for some
clouds and light snow showers to develop with some lake effect off
Lakes Huron and Erie. The amount of moisture in the region with the
surface high approaching is very limited so any impacts are just
some clouds and a couple flakes in the air but do not expect any
accumulations this morning. For the daytime hours today into
tonight, expecting dry weather across the region with high
pressure in place. Temperatures will continue to be below normal
with this surface high bringing more cold air to the region over
a light snow pack. Temperatures tonight will be in the teens to
upper single digits. With just some light winds, wind chills
could be near to just below zero in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The middle of this week continues to appear active with a
sequence of troughs and a pair of low pressure systems expected
to move through the Great Lakes. For Tuesday, an initial
shortwave will dig into the region and support a weaker low
pressure system through the northern Great Lakes. The forecast
area will be on the periphery of this system with a warm front
passing through the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There
will be some snow for NE Ohio and NW PA with the warm front with
an inch or so possible in NW PA by Tuesday evening.

For Tuesday night, the area will be in a warm advection
pattern, as the next, stronger upper trough and low pressure
enter for Wednesday. Precipitation will enter Tuesday night with
this system and with some warmer temperatures in the 30s to
lower 40s, expect a transition to rain for most of the forecast
area with the onset of this system. Some snow may stick around
NW PA, where another inch of snow could accumulate. On Wednesday
afternoon, this system will pass to the east and extend a cold
front across the area, allowing for rain to change to snow for
all locations and some minor accumulations will be expected
across the board. Some lake enhancement will allow for another
inch or two of snow in NE OH/NW PA by Wednesday night. Another
concern for the Tuesday night through Wednesday night period
will be winds as a strong low level jet will move through the
region with the low pressure system and cold front. Wind gusts
as strong as 40-45 mph are possible on land and there is
potential for a wind advisory, depending on the low pressure
system track.

For Thursday, there still is uncertainty on how much snow will
be in the region behind these systems. The end track of the
Wednesday system will determine how long a trough will remain
over Lake Erie to allow for some lake enhanced snow into the
eastern half of the area before high pressure and a low level
ridge build into the region and allow for snow chances off Lake
Erie to end. Will maintain a generic mix of PoPs across the area
until these features can be resolved. Overall, not expecting too
much snow for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast will continue the cold and unsettled
pattern that has been featured so far in December. There are
some model disagreements on timing and strength of systems.
However, in general, a low pressure system will move through the
Great Lakes region on Friday, ushering another reinforcing shot
of cold air across the local area while allowing for some
widespread light snow. Behind this system, some component of a
surface trough will set up over the region and allow for lake
effect snow for Saturday and Sunday with the best chance for
accumulations in the traditional areas of NE Ohio and NW PA. If
some of the colder model solutions like the 00z GFS can be
realized, there would be some potential for some significant
lake effect snows in the Great Lakes region. However, there is
too much spread in the guidance at this time to say anything
more than that the lake effect machine will be going this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
MVFR clouds continue to exit the area to the south as dry air
intrudes from the north, with mostly VFR conditions expected
areawide by late tonight. Lake effect clouds with MVFR ceilings
could briefly impact KCLE, KMFD, and KFDY Monday morning. VFR
expected areawide thereafter.

North winds of 7-13 knots continue through early tonight, with
some 20 kt gusts near the lake. Winds gradually shift more
east-northeast at 5-10kt on Monday, and then southeast to south
Monday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain
will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through
Thursday. Gusty winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift northerly
and increase to 15-25 knots this evening, then gradually shift more
east-northeasterly through tonight and into Monday. Winds will
remain elevated at 15-20kt through tonight before decreasing more on
Monday, falling below 15kt across the entire lake by late morning.
Waves will increase to 2-5 feet this evening and persist through
early Monday before subsiding to 1-3 feet by late Monday morning.
Small Craft Advisories remain as posted east of the Islands for this
evening and tonight, expiring at 7 AM Monday east of Geneva-on-the-
Lake and at 10 AM to the west. Sustained winds may briefly reach
20kt in the western basin this evening, though the duration of any
advisory-level conditions is expected to be too brief to expand the
advisory west of the Islands. Winds will continue gradually veering
to an east and then southeast direction at <15kt through Monday.

Rough marine conditions are expected late Monday night through
Wednesday night. An initial weaker low pressure will track through
the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across
Lake Erie. Winds will shift south-southeast to south-southwest and
increase to 15-25kt late Monday night into early Tuesday as the warm
front crosses the lake. South-southwest winds will peak at 25-35kt
during the day Tuesday, with 30-60% confidence in marginally
reaching gale-force winds across the central and eastern portions of
the lake. There is some question on how well the very strong winds
aloft will mix down in a warm advection (upglide) regime on Tuesday,
which leads to the medium confidence in reaching a gale. Winds
remain south-southwest and lull slightly (to 20-30kt) Tuesday
evening/night. Stronger low pressure tracks through the central
Great Lakes late Tuesday night through Wednesday, pushing a cold
front across the lake Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds increase
to 30-40kt ahead of the front late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
before shifting northwest at 25-35kt late Wednesday and gradually
subsiding Wednesday night as low pressure exits. Confidence in gales
on Wednesday is higher given the involvement of a cold front,
stronger winds aloft, and generally stronger low pressure...at 20-
40% in the western basin and 50-80%+ across the central and eastern
basin. A Low Water Advisory will be needed Tuesday into Wednesday
for the western basin as we get closer. Gale Watches will be issued
within the next couple of forecast cycles for at least the central
and eastern basins...given somewhat lower confidence in reaching
gales on Tuesday and a brief lull Tuesday evening held off on
starting gale headlines for now, though they are coming.

After a brief period of quieter conditions Thursday into early
Friday, another period of stronger west-northwest winds is likely
Friday or Saturday behind a strong cold front which will usher in
Arctic air for the weekend. More headlines will be needed...

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan