517
FXUS63 KDDC 010506
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First accumulating snow of the season for parts of southwest
Kansas on Monday

- Total accumulations will range from around 1 inch to as much
  as 3 inches

- Winter weather impacts should be minor however the timing of the
snow will likely coincide with the morning work/school commute

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025


20Z RAP and upper air analysis shows generally zonal flow with upper
level moisture streaming mid to high level cloudiness.  A digging
upper wave is nearing Salt Lake City.  At the surface a 1034 mb high
is leading to lighter northeast winds and strong CAA has kept
temperatures in the 20s throughout the morning and early afternoon.

Tonight into Monday morning the longwave trough will move from the
four corners region to western Kansas.  Ahead of the trough
increasing frontogenesis and lift in the dendritic growth zone
is forecast to start developing after 06Z in northwest Kansas
and quickly spread into north central through southwest Kansas
through sunrise. Short term models are fairly consistent with
timing and location of the strongest lift occurring between
12-18Z and for areas along and north of highway 50 with the
strongest lift near the K-96 and I-70 corridors. With the open
and progressive nature of the wave it should be a short lived
snow event as much of the snow should be wrapping up around noon
or shortly after. There will likely be mesoscale bands of
moderate snow at times which could produce snowfall rates of
~0.50 in/hr especially in our northeast zones. The snow should
be dry and powdery and winds are expected to be relatively light
so the main impacts will be some lowered visibility with the
heavier bands of snow and roads quickly becoming snow covered.
Given that the timeframe of the snow will be during the morning
work/school commutes a winter weather advisory is issued for
area along and north of a Pratt to Dodge City line. Totals will
range from up to an inch from Dodge City to Pratt (20-30% prob
of 1 inch or more) to as much as 2-3 inches along and north of a
WaKeeney to Larned line (25-40% probability of greater than 2
inches). By Monday afternoon with NVA and subsidence we will
probably see skies clear out quickly from west to east.

After Monday the weather turns fairly quiet with LREF upper air
patterns showing generally northwest flow.  Main highlights include
a cold front moving through Thursday morning but the brunt of the
colder air should be over the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A quick moving system is expected to move across Kansas in the next
24 hours. Low cloud cover is expected across the entire CWA, with
snow along the northeast half of the area. Hays is forecast to see
the heaviest snow from around 9-17Z. DDC and GCK have smaller
windows where lighter snow is expected. Anywhere that receives snow
could see visibilities dropped significantly. The duration and time
period for the snow holds some uncertainty, especially as much of it
occurs in narrow bands. Regardless, those 3 sites should be
monitored for lowered flight conditions and even at LBL it can not
be ruled out due to low ceilings. Winds will mostly be light and
shifting as the system moves through.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...KBJ