436
FXUS63 KDDC 082006
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
206 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of colder air moves in tonight

- Chilly low temperatures for Monday morning

- A warmer and dry pattern is expected for next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025


19Z upper air analysis shows a large longwave trough over the Great
Lakes region with a stronger Alberta clipper system which is
currently moving through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.  A 100
kt jet streak is located through northern Kansas through central
Missouri.  At the surface a cold front which moved through western
Kansas earlier this morning has now quickly moved through the Red
River of the south valley and a developing surface high in eastern
Montana will influence our colder weather for the rest of the
weekend.

For tonight the longwave trough should continue to progress to the
south and east and with the strengthening surface high in the
northern plains should allow another surge of colder air through
central and western Kansas and by sunrise Sunday morning 850 mb
temps will range from 0 to -5 (C).  Winds should continue to stay
breezy through the night and mid and upper level clouds should move
in late tonight along another developing jet streak in the 500 mb
layer.  The mixing of the air and cloud cover should keep overnight
lows more in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Sunday we should be more in the NVA region of the trough and with a
1038 mb high continuing to move southward we should see winds
diminish especially around and after sunset.  Cold air advection
will continue through the day and despite more clouds than sun there
will be limited heating in the lower levels and highs will be in the
40s to lower 50s.  Sunday night into Monday morning should bring the
coldest overnight lows as the center of the strong high pressure
will make the winds calm and skies clear.  This stronger radiational
cooling should allow lows to fall into the teens and lower 20s.

Medium and long term model trends show the trough exiting on Monday
and a ridge building across the western CONUS which will start a
warming trend in western Kansas.  Monday will be a transitional
period as the core of the colder air will start to exit and moderate
with warmer air being brought in from the desert southwest.  Tuesday
we should feel the milder air as highs will reach into the 70s.  The
ridge should stay in place through the workweek keeping us warm and
dry.  Towards the end of the 7 day period ensembles are suggesting a
trough moving in through the desert southwest that will eject into
the central plains that could lead to some precipitation chances by
the 16-17th time frame.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A cold front which passed through earlier this morning has led
to strong winds across southwest Kansas that will continue
through this afternoon. Forecast sustained winds for all
terminals will be 20-25 kts with occasional gusts 30+ kts
through 00Z. Winds will fall back after sunset however they
should stay breezy through the rest of the period at 12-20 kts.
Flight category for all terminals should stay VFR through the
time period as the lack of any moisture near the surface or
aloft will keep the clouds minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Highs today will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the
lower 60s in the southeast. Dewpoints will decrease today as high
pressure drops south. The pressure gradient will increase over the
entire region today and in combination of mixing will result in breezy
to windy northwest winds. Afternoon relative humidity looks to bottom
out in the 20% to 25% range today. Areas of elevated fire danger
may result with the combination of the warm temperatures, breezy
winds, and the dry airmass. Burning is discouraged.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden