533
FXUS63 KDDC 081004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
404 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy conditions today

- Below normal temperatures Sunday, cold Monday morning

- Pleasant temperatures next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A 1036 hPa sfc anticyclone will build southward across the spine of
the Rockies today. This will result in the pressure gradient increasing
across the Great Plains. Breezy to windy northwest winds of 20 to
30 mph with gusts around 40 mph is expected today. Temperatures are
expected to peak into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dewpoints should
decrease through the day as the dry high pressure airmass prevails.
Even with the warmth and winds, afternoon relative humidities are
not expected to approach Red Flag conditions today. I suppose elevated
conditions could be possible, but it does not look headline worthy.

The continued cold air advection (CAA) will prevail Sunday with 850
hPa temperatures bottoming out in the -4C to 4C range. This supports
highs struggling to get out of the 40s during the day. The relatively
strong anticyclone will set up shop directly over the state Monday
morning. Underneath this high, winds will go light and a good radiational
cooling event will develop. Lows Monday morning should range from
cold teens in the north to lower 20s in the south. The cold air will
be quickly dislodged though by Monday afternoon, with weak downslope
flow developing in the wake of the departing anticyclone. Highs Monday
afternoon will range from the 60s west to the 50s east.

Strengthening warm air advection (WAA) is expected Tuesday. 850 hPa
temperatures will increase back into the teens. This supports mixdown
temperatures back into the 70s for the entire FA. The pleasant temperatures
will continue through the middle portion of the business week. Both
deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts show
no precipitation potential through mid November and mostly likely
later than that.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR expected through TAF pd. NW winds will increase 20-25 kt with
gusts around 30 kt during the daytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Highs today will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the
lower 60s in the southeast. Dewpoints will decrease today as high
pressure drops south. The pressure gradient will increase over the
entire region today and in combination of mixing will result in breezy
to windy northwest winds. Afternoon relative humidity looks to bottom
out in the 20% to 25% range today. Areas of elevated fire danger
may result with the combination of the warm temperatures, breezy
winds, and the dry airmass. Burning is discouraged.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden