294
FXUS63 KDDC 030453
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1053 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
  next 7-10 days, through at least December 11th.

- Temperatures return to early December normals Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Windy and much colder, with low clouds behind a strong cold
  front Wednesday.

- Scattered snow flurries Wednesday night, especially west of
  Dodge City. Minor snow accumulations possible near the
  Colorado border, with little impact expected.

- A series of dry cold front passages will continue this weekend
  and early next week, with temperature and wind fluctuations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Midday surface observations showed the cold airmass eroding
nicely, with return flow establishing and south winds gusting
to near 30 mph. Satellite imagery depicted only scattered
cirrus, and the narrow band of snowcover from near Dighton to
near Hays. Outside of this narrow snow melting zone, afternoon
temperatures will easily warm back to normal, in the lower to
mid 50s.

The next cold front will race through SW KS tonight, easily
clearing the Oklahoma border by sunrise Wednesday. South winds
will trend light and variable this evening, followed by a sharp
increase in north winds toward sunrise. Mid and high clouds will
increase rapidly tonight, as the next shortwave dives south to
near Las Vegas by morning. Boundary layer mixing and the
increasing clouds will hold temperatures near normal in the 20s
Wednesday morning.

Much colder air dramatically returns Wednesday, with models
showing strong pressure rises, and temperatures either
flatlining or slowly falling through the day. Lowered
temperatures about 5 degrees across the board from NBM, with
MOS guidance suggesting it will be a struggle to get above
freezing. In addition to the strong cold air advection, lowering
stratus ceilings are anticipated, with the overcast also
contributing to the winter chill. Followed the stronger NBM
90%ile/12z MAV guidance for the stronger northeast winds
expected Wednesday. Most locations will be dry for most of
Wednesday. As the shortwave reaches the Four Corners by late
afternoon, scattered flurries or light snow are probable west of
US 83. Increased pops some along the Colorado line, but amounts
and impacts will be limited to nil.

Scattered flurries are possible Wednesday night, especially
western zones west of Dodge City, on the periphery of the
shortwave`s forcing for ascent. The probability of measurable
snow is <15% for most zones, which will carry a dry forecast. A
dusting to 1/2 inch is possible adjacent to Colorado Wednesday
night, and these amounts are reflected on the updated QPF/snow
grids. Snow impacts from this system will be tied to upslope
along the I-25 corridor in Colorado/New Mexico, well west of SW
KS. Shortwave will weaken as it ejects onto the plains amid
confluent flow Thursday, with a completely dry forecast
resuming. Despite cloud cover, surface ridging building in from
northeast Kansas will deliver a very cold Thursday sunrise in
the teens. Southwest winds return Thursday afternoon, but this
will be recirculated continental polar air, as such another
uncomfortable afternoon in the 30s is forecast.

Friday temperatures will attempt to moderate back closer to
normal, in the upper 40s and lower 50s at 3 pm. Friday through
Monday, dry NWly midlevel will persist per all global models.
This is a very dry synoptic pattern for SW KS during the cold
season, and is accompanied by several dry cold fronts with
temperature and wind speed/direction fluctuations. Timing
issues of frontal passages from the various models aside, no
impacts are expected, as none of the cold fronts will usher in
exceptionally cold air. The cold fronts will also not allow us
to warm above normal, so NBM temperature grids holding near
normal in the extended appear correct. High confidence SW KS
will remain dry through at least December 11th, with moisture
lacking for any frontal passages. A strong warming trend appears
likely after December 10th, with the CPC carrying a 70%
probability of above normal temperatures during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The start of the period will see mostly clear skies and lighter
(<10KTs). Later in the period, around 10Z, stronger winds and low
cloud cover is expected to move across into all terminals with a
near-surface low pressure system. Low ceilings, and lowered flight
conditions are forecast for all TAF sites by 18Z. The ceilings will
begin to recover near the end of the TAF period, but VFR conditions
are not expected by late in the period. Winds will also weaken
somewhat as the cloud cover erodes.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...KBJ