


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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219 FXUS63 KDDC 061902 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 202 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return tonight. - Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 WV imagery indicates an elongated upper level trough, extending from the Northern Plains southwest into the Great Basin, pushing slowly eastward. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends northeast from the Texas Panhandle up into eastern Kansas while a broad area of high pressure is sliding southeast through the Dakotas. Rain chances (40-60%) pick back up later this evening/overnight as the SREF indicates the upper level trough transitioning eastward through the Central Plains, pushing the previously mentioned stalled boundary southward into Oklahoma. Areas of light/moderate rain are forecast to develop later this evening in an axis of post-frontal H7 frontogenetic banding setting up across much of southwest/central Kansas in wake of the departing frontal boundary. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out with the RAP13 suggesting minimal instability returning overnight with MUCAPE values pushing upward of 500 J/kg. The best chance for additional rain will be across south central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where the HREF indicates a 50-70% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by daybreak Tuesday morning. Precip chances then taper off through the day Tuesday as the upper level shortwave moves off to the east across the Upper Midwest. Minimal rain chances (<20%) return to southern portions of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas early Wednesday as H5 vort maxima cresting a slowly building upper level ridge, eject out of the Southern Rockies into the panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas. However, any potential rain amounts are expected to be fairly insignificant. Near normal temperatures are forecast tonight as surface high pressure sliding southeast through the Northern Plains into the Central Plains helps reinforce a cooler air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. With the HREF showing a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 50F in west central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas to better than a 80% probability of temperatures slipping below 55F in south central Kansas, look for lows generally in the 40s(F) out west with the lower/mid 50s(F) in south central Kansas. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool Tuesday as surface high pressure sliding southeast through the Central Plains reinforces a cooler air mass within a northeasterly upslope flow across southwest/central Kansas, not to mention increased cloud cover throughout the day. Expect afternoon highs only up into the 50s out near the Colorado line where the HREF paints a 50-70% probability of temperatures exceeding 55F to the lower/mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas where the HREF indicates a 90% probability of temperatures topping 60F. Temperatures will continue to warm into Wednesday as departing surface high pressure gives way to southerlies across southwest/central Kansas, helping draw warmer air back into the area with H85 temperatures pushing above 10C in central Kansas to near 15C near the Colorado line. Should see afternoon highs well into the 60s(F) to potentially the lower 70s(F). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 IFR cigs with pockets of LIFR cigs will persist through much of the period as widespread prevailing stratus remains settled across the Western High Plains through late tonight. Patchy fog may also lead to periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt are expected to persist through early Tuesday as surface high pressure drifts southeast through the Northern Plains. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson