508
FXUS63 KDDC 290802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds sustained in the 25-35 mph range
  gusting to 45-50 mph are anticipated today behind a strong
  cold front.

- Light snow appears probable on Monday, but little to no
  accumulation is expected.

- Below normal temperatures continue through at least Thursday,
  with no precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal a compact shortwave trough is currently ejecting
from the north-central Rockies into the central plains. At the
surface, low pressure has developed near the southwestern tip of
KS. Short range guidance is in agreement suggesting the surface
low will move east ahead of the ejecting upper wave during the
early morning hours Saturday, with a cold front moving through
all of southwest KS by 13-14Z. Some light rain, and maybe a few
snow flurries, is possible across our northern zones in the
wrap-around region of the low, but the main impact with this
storm will be the strong northerly winds daytime Saturday. 00Z
ECMWF and GFS both indicate a roughly 7-mb surface pressure
difference across our area, which will translate to sustained
northerly winds in the 25-35 mph range gusting to 45-50 mph,
peaking during the late morning through early afternoon hours.
These winds will also usher in much cooler air, with most
locations failing to break out of the 40s, while the southeast
zones at least have a chance. North winds will begin to taper
off from west to east after sunset, becoming 5-15 mph by
midnight Sunday. Overnight, light winds and partly cloudy skies
will allow Sunday morning lows to drop into the teens, with
wind chills in the single digits to low teens.

Surface high pressure will settle into the High Plains daytime
Sunday, supporting northeast winds trending to southeast by
mid-afternoon. However, increasing cloud cover ahead of the next
upper level shortwave impulse approaching the Four Corners
region by 00Z Monday will once again hold temperatures well
below normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Medium range ensembles agree the shortwave will eject from the
Intermountain West/Four Corners region early Monday into the
central plains by 00Z Tuesday. Some light precipitation, likely
snow, is expected with this system, but total QPF will be
minimal as NBM probability of QPF > 0.1" is less than 30% for
the majority of our area, and in the 30-40% range for portions
of Trego, Ellis, Ness, and Rush counties. Similarly,
temperatures on Monday will again be well below normal with
daytime highs in the 30s.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
agree longwave troughing will remain over the entirety of the
CONUS, but any embedded vorticity maxima will stay too far N for
impacts across southwest KS outside of a dry cold frontal
passage centered around Wednesday morning. Therefore, NBM is
forecasting quiet pops (<15%) and continued below normal
temperatures through Thursday, followed by a return to near
normal temperatures Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface observations across southwest KS reveal MVFR cigs are
impacting all terminals except LBL ahead of an approaching cold
front. Short range guidance indicates these conditions will
continue through sunrise as the front approaches, but with cold
air advection increasing behind the front, skies will scatter
out and yield VFR conditions by late morning/early afternoon.
In addition, current southerly winds aoa 12 kts will turn
northerly and increase dramatically behind the front, becoming
sustained in the 25-30 kt range gusting to 35-45 kts during the
late morning through early afternoon. After this period, winds
will gradually weaken, reaching aob 12 kts after 00Z. There is
also an outside chance for light rain at HYS before sunrise this
morning, which could briefly reduce vis, but confidence in this
scenario is not high.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer