348
FXUS63 KDDC 061733
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next 10 days to two weeks will likely be completely dry.

- Near record highs in the lower to mid 70s are possible
  Tuesday.

- Only a glancing blow of arctic air is forecast for next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Over the next week an upper level ridge will develop along the
West Coast, with upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Individual shortwave troughs progressing
southeastward out of Canada will bring shots of cold air into
the Midwest and eastern United States. Western Kansas will miss
the brunt of the arctic air as low level downslope flow keeps
temperatures relatively mild in the lee of the Rockies.

A disturbance passing southeastward across the plains today will
result in a surge of downslope flow ahead of a cold front, with
winds southwesterly becoming westerly in the afternoon. Highs
will easily reach into the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s. One
thing that could keep temperatures from reaching their potential
is a shield of mid to high level cloud that will be advancing
across the high plains today. This will probably keep
temperatures from exceeding 60 except for the southwest corner.
In the wake of the upper level system a cold front will pass
this evening, resulting in cooler highs in the 30s and 40s for
Sunday. A moderating trend can be expected Monday as cool high
pressure passes eastward and is replaced by surface troughing.

On Tuesday another upper level system will pass southeastward
into the northern plains, with deep surface low pressure over
the Dakotas and moving into MN/IA and a burst of westerly
downslope flow over southwest Kansas. All of the ensemble
suites indicate 850mb temperatures in the 14-17C range (10th and
90th percentiles). Ensemble clustering shows 850mb temperatures
in the 95th percentile range, indicating near record highs are
possible. Deep mixing may even extend up to 700mb (about 7500 ft
above sea level at Dodge City). In this pattern the highest
percentiles are preferred as models tend to have a tough time
mixing warm mid level air to the surface. This means that the
model winds are likely too weak as well, resulting in the
vertical "mixing out" of moisture. Thus, expect warmer, drier
and windier conditions for Tuesday than the current NBM and
current forecast show. Given expected 700mb winds around 30 kts
and mixing up through that level, 30-35 mph wind gusts are
likely during the afternoon. The record high for Dodge City is
75 set in 1939.

Another weak cold front is due Tuesday night, with highs falling
into the 40s to perhaps 50s for Wednesday depending on the
intensity of the cold surge. However, another surge of warm air
is expected Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s.

Temperatures become much more uncertain by Friday, Saturday and
Sunday as the western edge of the aforementioned arctic air
will be very close. This means there will likely be a gradient
in temperatures between Hays and Elkhart. Temperatures may not
get above freezing in Hays Saturday. The cold air may be
stubborn to leave once getting wedged into the plains so that
Sunday may turn out to be cooler as well, especially in central
Kansas.

No precipitation can be expected for the next week to 10 days
and probably longer. The Grand Ensemble indicates only 5 to 20%
chances for measurable precipitation (.01" or greater) in the
Wednesday night and Thursday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Sunday. Southwesterly winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt
through mid-afternoon will turn northerly around 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt generally after 20-22Z in wake of a cold front
pushing southeast through western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson