737
ACUS01 KWNS 240535
SWODY1
SPC AC 240534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated
activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from
eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and
sporadic large hail.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern
Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with
time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an
upper trough exits the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic
during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of
America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend
as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35
corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into
southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of
moisture overnight across MS.

...Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss...
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from
North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with
southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift
north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample
deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail
at times.

To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary
layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb
initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well
as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late
afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.

Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold
front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z.
Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with
height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may
produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the
front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as
mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.

At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS
overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering
wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting
a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue
to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025

$$