419
FXUS63 KEAX 232343
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
543 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Conditions Through Late Afternoon/Early Evening

- Fog Likely Tonight Before Rain, Some Dense Fog Possible

- Multiple rounds of Rain Monday

- Cooler Through Midweek, Possible Precipitation Next Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Mid-level ridge axis is moving eastward across the area this
afternoon and is pushing the surface anticyclone into the Ohio River
Valley. Subsidence has worked to clear skies across much of the
area, but 20z satellite shows a pocket of moisture that has lingered
stretching from Bates County MO toward Chariton and Randolph
Counties [MO]. This has been making for a difficult temperature
forecast as the afternoon has progressed, with some areas quickly
rising 8-10F once insolation was able to break through, while other
locations have struggled to get out of the 40s. It is difficult to
pinpoint if the entire area clears before sunset, and then
complicates the forecast for fog tonight through Monday morning.
Most high resolution guidance depicts visibility restrictions as
winds overnight remain light, and several spots with clear skies
allowing for efficient cooling. Most areas will see some kind of
fog, but how dense it gets in any one location will depend on
several factors, including how the lingering cloud cover this
afternoon plays out into the evening. The other factor, will be the
arrival of eventual rainfall early Monday morning, as that will
provide momentum transport to mix the fog out with winds around 6-8
kts. The rain itself though may still keep visibility below 1 mile
at some point. Due to the uncertainty with how dense tonight`s fog
will get, have not issued on a Dense Fog Advisory on this shift, but
is highly likely as the evening progresses that several counties
will need one.

Attention turns to the wet forecast for Monday. Strong PV anomaly
that allowed prominent troughing over the southwest CONUS has
already started to lift northeastward with stronger positive
vorticity advection reaching the Rockies and portions of the Front
Range. Objective surface analysis is already showing initial stages
of Lee Cyclone development with low-level southerly flow picking up
momentum across the High Plains. As this pushes the ridge axis
eastward and the surface anticyclone further into the Ohio River
Valley, our winds turn southerly later tonight. There are two
notable boundaries associated with this system. The primary
temperature boundary will push toward the far southern Ozarks
Region, while a secondary boundary will be pushing eastward across
the Plains. This secondary boundary though will have a more notable
moisture gradient to it then temperature gradient, with dewpoints
progged to reach the mid 50s. H5 height falls should commence late
tonight and begin to provide broad scale lift from eastern Kansas
into Central Missouri, with increasing magnitude of isentropic
ascent through the overnight hours. This will promote increasing
stratiform cloud cover again. The strong vort maxima associated with
the approaching mid-level shortwave starts between 09z-11z in our
west and then moves eastward. This will be the time frame when
initial sprinkles or perhaps some drizzle will begin to be noted.
CAMS have been in decent agreement of increasing shower coverage
between 12-14z, a break, then another round as the main vort maxima
and trough axis move through providing more lift. There is some
potential for MUCAPE to reach 100-300 J/kg south of Interstate 70
during the afternoon, but overall thermodynamic profiles are not
very robust. HREF mean MUCAPE signal is south of the forecast area.
A few rumbles of thunder could be possible from KC and south to
southeastward. Any convective structure may only act to enhance
rainfall rates for a few hours. Both deterministic and ensemble
suites are favoring rainfall totals between 0.25 and 0.50 inches for
the bulk of the forecast area. There some stripes of 0.50 to 0.75
inches in various locations between eastern Kansas and Central
Missouri. HREF probability matched mean values also generally
support this, with heaviest pocket south of Interstate 70 around
0.75 inches. Overall totals are on the lighter side of this range
toward the Missouri-Iowa state line. Where the heavier rainfall
occurs will mainly depend on how far north this warm front moisture
boundary feature travels, and if it stalls. If periods of
convective/shower mode occur, would also be scenario to increase
rainfall. Hourly rainfall rates are not expected to exceed much more
than 0.10 of an inch. Flooding concerns will be fairly minimal, just
keeping an eye on fast responding creeks and streams primarily in
the KC metro.

By Tuesday morning, another H5 short-wave trough and strong vort
maxima digs into the Northern Plains and keeps the pattern moving,
forcing Monday`s short-wave east of the area. This will also push a
cold front through the region, and may provide just enough
convergence to produce some more sprinkle activity, especially east
of Interstate 35. Deterministic model guidance has been dry with
respect to QPF Tuesday afternoon, but a few ensemble members develop
some light activity Tuesday afternoon. Eventually, another push of
cold and much drier air arrives late Tuesday afternoon and evening.
This will bring high temperatures through the remainder of the week
into the mid 40s, with morning low temperatures in the upper 20s. At
this time, no precipitation is forecast nor is any appreciable
forcing available during the timeframes of subfreezing temperatures,
therefore no wintry mix is expected with the Monday and Tuesday
activity. Forecast remains dry through Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday next weekend, there is a signal a stronger
PV anomaly over the western CONUS, with deep trough in the
southwest, and a secondary short-wave trough across the Central
CONUS. This pattern could result in a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
developing across the Central CONUS bringing precipitation activity.
At this time, the moisture content that will be able to get ahead of
this system remains uncertain. The temperature profile during the
timing of forcing for potential precipitation, also remains
uncertain. Ensemble probabilities are showing 80 percent for some
form of measurable QPF on Saturday, 60 to 70 percent chance for
liquid QPF greater than 0.10 inches. Then, mainly for north-central
and northeast Missouri, temperatures could dip below 32F, resulting
in a wintry precipitation. There is one particular deterministic
model outputting very notable snowfall totals in our northeast CWA
assuming a 10:1 ratio. However, other models are no where near as
robust (and some absolutely no frozen precipitation). And a large
part of that is due to the uncertainty in temperatures. At this
time, a light amount of frozen precipitation in our northeast seems
possible at some point next weekend given the setup. For our western
counties, including the KC metro, probabilities for dropping below
32F during the time of forcing for precipitation are very low,
therefore keeping everything rain. There may be some travel impacts
next weekend, especially well east of Interstate 35. Because the
cold air is not here yet, and pavement temperatures are still fairly
warm, determining if impactful winter precipitation accumulations
will occur is difficult to do. Any travel further northeast of
Missouri could be more problematic. For now, expect some type of
precipitation next weekend, and continue to watch forecast trends
for the precipitation type, especially east of Interstate 35. The
preceding cold air advection magnitude through the week will play a
role in how things play out next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR through most of the evening before patchy fog returns again.
Visibilities are expected to drop just before 06z and may drop
as low as 1 SM. Ceilings will drop to IFR/LIFR levels tonight
and rain will move in between 09-10z and persist through much of
the day. Lowered ceilings and visibilities will likely continue
through the day on Monday. Southerly winds will remain light
through the period staying under 10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Soria