Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
521
FNUS74 KEPZ 182338
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
538 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
For Wednesday, low-end breezy winds out of the south at 7 to 12 mph with
gusts up to 20 possible. Min RH values will be 10 to 15 percent with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Deep mixing will promote Very Good
smoke ventilation rates. Slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday through the
weekend. Any thunderstorm that develops in the vicinity of the incident, gusty
and erratic outflow winds and frequent lightning will be possible.
.JUNETEENTH (WEDNESDAY)...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny to partly cloudy (10-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Low to middle 80s.
Min humidity........10-15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 7 to 12 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to around 22 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(201700 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 1 6 6 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............53 62 70 76 81 82
RH..............35 28 22 17 13 12
20 ft wind......S 2 S 2 S 4 S 7 S 9 S 10
20 ft wind gust.7 7 13 16 15 18
Mix hgt (ft)....100 100 6200 10200 11900 11900
Transport wind..S 9 S 9 S 22 S 22 S 22 S 22
Haines index....4 4 5 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 120 202 244 244
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT EXNT EXNT
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the evening and
overnight timeframe.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2200, then 3 after 10PM.
Min temperature.....Middle to upper 50s.
Max humidity........70-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (226300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(6600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 6 12 12 22
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 6 6 1
Temp............79 70 65 62 59 57
RH..............12 18 27 39 57 72
20 ft wind......S 6 S 6 S 7 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9
20 ft wind gust.16 16 16 17 17 18
Mix hgt (ft)....11300 11300 300 300 600 600
Transport wind..S 21 S 21 SE 24 SE 24 SE 24 SE 24
Haines index....6 6 5 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..226 226 7 7 12 12
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Upper 70s.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 28 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (139500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (170800
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........23 17 17 28
Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20
LAL.............1 1 3 3
Temp............56 66 74 78
RH..............77 56 41 33
20 FT wind......SE 9G18 SE 10G20 SE 8G16 SE 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....200 2200 5700 7100
Transport wind..SE 29 SE 29 SE 31 SE 28
Haines index....3 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 60 140 171
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds
around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs around 80. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.2/EPZ
.DELDT 06/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov