Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
186 FXUS64 KEWX 291202 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 602 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate showers increasing overnight into Saturday morning. - Chances for thunderstorms along and east of I-35 Saturday night. - Strong cold front Saturday night bringing gusty winds and the coldest temperatures of the season. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A mid to upper level short wave is moving across South Central Texas late this evening. Latest data from the EWX Doppler radar shows an increasing low level jet of 40+ knots between 1 and 2 km AGL. The 03Z SPC Mesoanalysis map shows the precipitation potential placement along and east of the low jet max that extends from north to central Texas and into the Hill Country. During the overnight period, an upper level pulse of energy could result in isolated pockets of moderate rain mainly over areas along and east of Highway 281. Rainfall amounts are likely to be minimal to quarter inch with this activity. However, a few locations with higher amounts up to half inch can`t be ruled out. With increased moisture in place, expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over most of South Central Texas on Saturday. There may be a few locations along the Rio Grande that could see partly cloudy skies. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. A strong cold front is forecast to push across the local area Saturday night through early Sunday. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast along and just behind the boundary. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. As the front moves across the area late Saturday night through Sunday morning, breezy to windy conditions are likely with winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is likely issue during the day if models continue with the similar trend. In addition to the wind, a cold airmass spreads across South Central Texas with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s along the Rio Grande. The wind chill factor feel like temperatures in the upper 20 to lower 30s range for the Hill Country. Sunday`s highs only reaching the 40s and 50s areawide with overnight lows/early Monday morning temps in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Another chance for showers and even a storm or two, comes early Monday and continues throughout the day as an upper level storm tracks over South Central Texas. The areas favored for precipitation are those along and east of Interstate 35. Cooler weather stays for several days, however, warms back up by Friday into next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s and 70s along the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 IFR conditions remain possible with perhaps even lower conditions are possible over the escarpment, but only some brief periods are now expected in the first few hours as surface winds become better mixed. Southerly winds will have gusts approaching 25 knots midday, and that should nudge skies closer to VFR in time. However lighter winds ahead of the cold front could see the CIGS lower again in the early evening. The strong front to follow may bring the best potential for brief thunderstorms over I-35, mainly in the 03Z-06Z window at AUS, and later from 05Z-08Z at SSF, with the latter location showing a slower frontal arrival than models had in earlier runs. Conditions should improve more steadily behind the front with maybe a few hours of MVFR CIGs, but lifting to low VFR heights once the winds become gusty up to 30 knots. Somewhat lighter winds are projected for DRT, so their return to VFR skies could happen by mid afternoon and stay there behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 40 50 38 / 30 50 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 38 50 36 / 40 60 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 40 51 37 / 30 50 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 37 47 36 / 20 30 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 45 55 43 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 37 49 36 / 30 50 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 41 53 38 / 20 10 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 39 51 36 / 30 60 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 40 50 39 / 60 80 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 43 52 39 / 20 40 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 77 45 53 40 / 20 40 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...18