Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

923
FXUS64 KEWX 081751 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITY AND
ELEVATED WINDS THAT WILL PROMOTE WILDFIRE SPREAD IF ONE WAS TO
OCCUR. HAVE RETRENDED HOURLY TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS AND THIS HAS REDUCED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY GO BELOW 20 PERCENT
RH ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ANY
POSSIBLE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. SEE UPDATED
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. NEW ZONES AND UPDATED RED FLAG
WARNING PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AS OF 10AM THIS
MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. THIS
IS RESULTING IN ACROSS THE BOARD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 20 PERCENTILES ALREADY AND THESE VALUES, COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ALREADY OBSERVED ARE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG
MIXING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTH WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
AND EVEN GUST UP TO 30 MPH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. BURNING OF ANY
SORT IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TODAY GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AS FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY ONCE IGNITED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE TO BELOW 10 MPH AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH THE SKIES. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH NLY WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NWLY
AND DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A DEL RIO TO HONDO TO AUSTIN LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
AID THE WARMING TREND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
WEEK. WE/LL TEND TO SIDE WITH THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF
AND BRING THE FRONT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WE HAVE
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO KARNES CITY LINE.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES.

ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  67  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  67  35  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     35  69  39  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  66  39  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  72  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        33  66  38  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  71  36  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        34  68  38  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   35  65  39  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       36  69  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  70  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.