Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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000 FXUS64 KEWX 100524 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1124 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... IN THE SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TOMORROW IT LOOKS LIKE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PROB30 OF RA STARTING AROUND 18Z AT DRT AND 21Z AT SAN ANTONIO AREA. THAN STEADY RAIN STARTING 21Z AT DRT AND 00Z SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. FORECAST IS TRENDING WARMER AND CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP IS DECREASING...BUT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE ESPECIALLY AT DRT EARLY IN THE EVENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ UPDATE...HUGE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME (AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE) STARTING ITS SURGE EAST INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS SHOULD BE OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO TRENDS AND CLOUD INCREASE. UPDATED TEXT FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ DISCUSSION... A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INITIALLY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE W-SW LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OFF CA DIGGING TOWARD BAJA. LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING MODIFIES THE AIR MASS FROM MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. TEMPERATURES ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY HAS A MID LEVEL LAYER COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING AND LOWERING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE SURFACE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER. THEREFORE THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION(LIGHT RAIN & SLEET/MIXED WITH SNOW HILL COUNTRY) WILL INCREASE FROM WEST WED AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD DREARY RAIN TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH A WET GROUND AND MINIMAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE GROUND. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN HILL COUNTRY/CWA...HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM SHOWED A WARMER SOUNDING..BUT HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY NWLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH COOL-MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS INTO THE 1ST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 34 44 33 39 37 / 0 40 90 80 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 29 44 34 38 36 / 0 40 90 80 60 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 44 35 40 37 / 0 50 90 80 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 29 42 33 37 34 / 0 40 80 70 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 40 35 43 37 / - 70 60 50 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 28 44 33 38 35 / 0 30 80 80 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 43 35 42 35 / 0 70 90 80 40 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 33 44 34 39 38 / 0 40 90 80 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 33 43 35 42 38 / 0 30 90 90 60 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 34 43 35 42 37 / 0 60 90 80 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 44 36 42 38 / 0 60 90 80 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 02/05
