Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 291723
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
FEW CU AROUND 7K FEET. S TO SE WINDS 8-12 KTS DEVELOPING...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LESS COVERAGE OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THU MORNING...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DRIER LOW LEVELS. LEFT CLOUDS FEW-SCT EARLY THU MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BR DEVELOP EAST OF I-35 AROUND SUNRISE
THU...RESULTING IN 3-6SM VISIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS
STRETCHING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. THEY ARE NOT
MAKING MUCH HEADWAY WEST BUT CANT RULE OUT DRT GETTING HIT WITH
SOME CEILINGS IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LEFT DRT IN WITH JUST SCT FOR
NOW. CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE PM. LOOK FOR LESS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BIT MORE MID CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15
KT TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER TX. THE RIDGE CENTER IS
OVER AR/ERN OK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE MAKING A WESTWARD SHIFT
ACROSS OK INTO NW TX THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY-
TO-DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS ANOTHER SPS IS WARRANTED TO
MENTIONED HEAT INDICES UP TO 108 OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK AS AUS/SAT BOTH
REACHED 99 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN FOR THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE
CHANGE NEEDED TO REDUCE HUMIDITIES AND ALLOW AUS/SAT TO REACH
THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 850 HPA SHOWN IN GFS/NAM MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CORRELATE WITH AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER
THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD IMPACT EASTERN COUNTIES INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA. GUSTY
OUTFLOWS OVER THE DRY AIR BELOW COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG...AND
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A QUICK END TO RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST AND A MORE BROAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. POPS ARE TO REMAIN LOW AND CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP AGAINST DCAPE VALUES OF
1000 J/KG OR MORE TO ENSURE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND SHORT STORM
LIFE. ANOTHER MAINLY DIURNAL ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH THE EMPHASIS SHIFTING MORE TO WESTERN COUNTIES.
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS AT SOME OF THE HOTTEST AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DRY AIR
PULLING SW FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. HOWEVER...THIS TREND IS
SOFTENED UP FROM EARLIER RUNS AS MORE RECENT RUNS SHOW HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD BUY US AN EXTRA DAY
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MORE HOT AND DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77 101  78  99  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73 100  75  99  75 /   0  -   20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 101  76  99  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  99  77  98  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 102  77 100  78 /   0   0   0  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76 100  77  99  76 /   0  -   20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73 100  75  98  75 /   0   0  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  99  76  99  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  76  98  76 /   0  10  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77 100  78  99  78 /   0   0  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75 101  77  99  77 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY


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