Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...06Z-16Z...IFR/MVFR
CIGS LIFTING AND MIXING OUT TO VFR SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...16Z-06Z...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED SE OF A KBEA TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NW TO A KFTN TO KHDO TO KGTU LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO PROBS
OF ONLY 20 AT THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES OF KAUS/KSAT. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE MENTION IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY.
GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...
BKN MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS WELL AS WEST TOWARD UVA/HDO. MAY EXPAND TOWARD DRT
12Z-16Z. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT 15Z-16Z...WITH FEW-SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...WORKING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
SAT/SSF TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATE
MORNING...GUSTY EARLY EVENING AT SAT/SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




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