Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 170456 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1056 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR conditions prevail late this evening and are expected to
continue through the TAF period. Ceilings remain OVC060 to 090 across
the region and continue to increase further, minus the Rio Grande
area. The mid-level cloud clearing line is just north of KAUS and
should slide slowly south and east over the next several hours. KDRT
may not fully clear the mid-level deck given the current clearing
line angle vs. KDRT location in addition top-down moisture building
Wednesday ahead of another weather system. However, no precipitation
is expected with this system. Surface winds remain north near 10
knots or less. Winds at KDRT will become more southeasterly
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

EVENING UPDATE...
Now that precipitation has moved out of the CWA this evening, no
additional impacts are expected tonight associated with icing. As a
result, the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory has been
allowed to expire.

However, with the very cold temperatures forecast, still in the
teens for the Hill Country and Austin areas according to the
CONSshort and other guidance, a hard freeze warning has been issued
through Wednesday morning. Additionally, an SPS has been issued to
address any lingering roadway impacts from today`s winter event
during the overnight period.

Per the latest update and analysis of latest temperature guidance,
temps are expected to begin rising above freezing from the southwest
to the northeast beginning around 10AM with all locations expected to
rise above freezing by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...
Sleet and patchy light snow remaining across eastern counties will
exit quickly to the east through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening. A Winter Storm Warning will remain in place for
Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, and DeWitt counties where light to at
times moderate sleet bands are occurring.

Some improvement has generally taken place on areas roads back to
the west, along and west of the I-35 corridor. This is likely due to
a combination of road treatments as well as sublimation taking place
as very low dew points moving into region interact with the strong
north wind. Nevertheless, there are some patches of ice that remain
on some roadways, and as we head into the evening after sunset it
may be harder for motorists to recognize where those patches are.
For this reason we have elected to replace the Winter Storm Warning
with a Winter Weather Advisory for central counties through the mid
evening hours, at which time if enough improvement has taken place it
can be replaced with a Special Weather Statement overnight for
messaging patchy black ice.

A hard freeze is expected across most of the area overnight and
Wednesday morning. Lows Wednesday morning in the Hill Country and
along and east of I-35/north of I-10 are forecast to dip into the
teens. Low to mid 20s are expected elsewhere.

Temperatures will rise above freezing between 11AM and 1PM Wednesday
with highs into the mid and upper 30s across the east and low 40s
across the west.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...
Models have backed off on precip chances Wednesday Night and
Thursday, delayed now until Thursday night when forcing and moisture
from upper level system comes across the area. Therefore we have
removed any mention of winter precip Wednesday Night into Thursday.
Low chances for rain Thursday night into Friday mainly across the
eastern half of the CWA with the aforementioned system. Highs Friday
into the upper 50s to low 60s then rebound considerably Saturday
into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday
with a chance of showers across central and eastern areas. This front
will be Pacific in nature and only produce slightly cooler
temperatures Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              18  37  24  45  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  17  36  22  44  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     19  38  25  44  34 /   0   0   0  -   20
Burnet Muni Airport            14  35  20  44  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           24  41  28  47  32 /   0   0   0  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        15  35  21  45  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             20  41  26  46  35 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        18  37  23  43  34 /   0   0   0  -   20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   19  36  23  43  35 /   0   0   0  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       21  39  27  44  37 /   0   0   0  -   20
Stinson Muni Airport           23  40  28  45  37 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Wednesday for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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