Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041200
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AT ALL TERMINALS WILL KEEP FLYING CATEGORY
IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS
WILL RISE TO MVFR WITH STRONG...GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. AT AUS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR FZDZ THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO WINTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THOUGH...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  31  39  27  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  31  38  25  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  32  40  28  45 /  50  70  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  27  37  23  45 /  70  80  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  34  43  31  49 /  30  80  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  30  38  24  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  34  41  28  46 /  40  70  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  32  39  27  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  33  40  28  47 /  60  60  30  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  33  40  29  46 /  40  80  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  34  41  30  46 /  40  70  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



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