Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KEWX 241133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT BY 17Z
MOST AREAS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TREST OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS FROM NEAR
THROCKMORTON TO BIG SPRING AT 11Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREA
AROUND 21-23 Z BEFORE WASHING OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVIG IN THIS EVENING SHOULD HAMPER
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY FROM A PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
STABILITY THROUGH DECREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
STORMS SHOULD THE MOIST LAYER BE SLOW TO DECREASE. INCREASING
TRENDS ON THE DRYING POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS
COULD SUGGEST THAT NO STORMS FORM AT ALL. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEN E/NE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESUME DRYING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...ARID AND WARM DAY
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING...AND A QUICK RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST COULD ENHANCE THIS LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY MIDDAY. LATE IN THE
DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT WILL EXPECT A CAP TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
MEXICO UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS NOTED
BY THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER OVER NORTH TX AND A DRY SLOT COULD
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD...LEAVING A SIMILAR BREEZY AND WARM DAY
FOR MONDAY. LATE MONDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO LAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENING TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC FRONT FOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE NEXT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  61  88  65  86 /  20  -   -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  58  88  63  86 /  20  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  61  89  64  88 /  10  -   -   10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  57  87  65  84 /  10  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  64  91  70  93 /  -    0  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  57  86  65  84 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  62  93  69  93 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  60  88  64  87 /  10  -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  63  87  65  85 /  20  -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  63  90  67  90 /  10  -   -   10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  63  91  67  92 /  10  -   -   10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.