Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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376
FXUS64 KEWX 270853
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
TUTT low centered over the lower Pecos Valley has generated heavy
rainfall over northern Val Verde County over the last few hours
with radar estimates showing up to 6.4 inches. The low is forecast
to slowly weaken today as it drifts to the southwest and then
dissipate over the Big Bend later tonight into early Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over Val Verde and parts
of nearby counties this morning. Subtropical Ridge centers over
the Four Corners and the Arklatex regions bridge together today
with subsidence taking hold over most of South Central Texas. The
activity out west will decrease in coverage later this morning
into the afternoon. Elsewhere, only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly along the seabreeze near the
Coastal Plains this afternoon. The Arklatex center weakens tonight
allowing a northerly flow aloft to bring a weak front into Central
Texas on Tuesday. Subsidence weakens and upward forcing by the
front is expected to generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The front stalls and slowly dissipates across South Central Texas
Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Also, some outflow boundaries may
linger across our area. These features will allow for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, except scattered near the Coastal
Plains where the seabreeze may bring more coverage. On Thursday,
the Subtropical Ridge becomes centered over Central Texas and
meanders around Central and Eastern Texas through next weekend.
Subsidence takes hold and persists through Sunday. Forecast is
rain free Thursday through Sunday. However, cannot rule out a
shower or two near the Coastal Plains along the seabreeze in the
afternoon. Temperatures will slowly warm to slightly above normal
going into the Independence Day weekend with heat indices possibly
becoming elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  95  74  95 /  10  -   40  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  95  73  94 /  10  -   40  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  95  73  94 /  10  -   30  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  94  73  93 /  10  -   40  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  76  97  75  97 /  20  -   10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  93  73  94 /  10  10  40  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  95  73  94 /  10  -   20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  73  94  73  93 /  10  -   40  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  75  93  74  93 /  10  -   50  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  94  75  94 /  10  -   20  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           95  75  96  76  96 /  10  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04



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