Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 280531
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND BR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY MENTION FEW010 IN THE KSAT
30 HOUR TAF. VRBL WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME SLY UP TO 10
KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH PASSING
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICK UP TO NEAR 10 KT FROM THE S/SW BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING
ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND IS
LEADING TO WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH FLATTENING RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT SAT
AND ATT (RECORDS FOR TOMORROW...SAT: 81 SET IN 1909 AND ATT: 79
SET IN 1970).

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF ESCARPMENT THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLE DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY COOLER IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...ONLY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND UNCERTAIN EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO/BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAINLY
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN FORCING SKIRTS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY.
MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN BRINGING A WARM FRONT BACK
THROUGH THE AREA DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIALLY THE
BEST PRECIP FOCUSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EWX CWA. PWATS OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES WILL BE
POOLED OVER THE AREA...UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGH
END TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WELL DETACHED FROM
THE NORTHER STREAM...CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA BEFORE EJECTING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES. FOR DAY 7
TUESDAY...WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  81  51  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  80  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  81  48  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  78  50  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  80  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  79  51  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  80  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  81  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  78  51  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  81  49  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  80  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03







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