Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING. CIGS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE IS
ALSO PATCHY FOG ENCROACHING ON I-35. HAVE DROPPED VIS AT AUS WITH
A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SAN
ANTONIO AND IFR AT DRT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA AT DRT TODAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. FLOW WILL BE MORE
EASTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BE LESS THAN
VFR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76




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