Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. LAST
NIGHT THERE WERE SIGNS OF DRYING AS THE KDRT RAOB SAMPLED A PWAT
OF 1.81 INCHES BUT THAT QUICKLY CLIMBED BACK UP TO 2.12 INCHES
THIS MORNING. WEAK LIFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF
THE AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS ASSOCIATED.

TOMORROW...850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE 850
HIGH BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND REPLACED BY
INCREASING HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON DROPPING
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND WILL NOT NEED TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE POOR AND THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  72  90  72  91 /  30  20  10  -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  69  90  70  91 /  30  20  10  -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  89  71  90 /  30  20  10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  75  88  74  88 /  40  40  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  71  90  72  90 /  30  10  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  72  93  71  94 /  40  30  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  71  89  71  91 /  30  20  10  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  72  92  72  92 /  30  20  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  92  73  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  73  94 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






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