Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 171746
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUD DECK WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500FT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SCT V BKN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOIST SLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW THE DECK TO FILL-IN TO STEADY
BKN/OVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A LOWERING OF CIG
BASES ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WITH REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...BUT
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT/BREAK OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS TO COVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK TO MVFR LEVELS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. LOW CLOUD DECKS WITH IFR
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
I-35 TAF SITES. LIGHT BR AND -DZ WILL OCCUR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. KDRT
WILL STAY MOSTLY AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT 7-12 KNOTS...TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL CAUSE CIGS
WILL DROP FURTHER INTO IFR CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH BR AND -DZ
ACCOMPANYING IT. FOG MAY LOWER VSBY CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS DUE TO A FAVORABLE JET POSITION ENHANCING LIFT.
AS THE TROUGH AND JET MOVE EAST OF TEXAS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES ON BRIEF DRYING ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS TODAY WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MIDWAY BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOVING THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...WEAK SHEAR AND ENHANCED BUOYANCY SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HOWEVER...WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS 00Z MODELS RUNS SHOWING THIS FOR FIRST
TIME. WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG CAP OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  58  79  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  56  79  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  57  81  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  56  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  56  78  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  59  83  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  56  80  57  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  57  80  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  59  81  58  81 /  20  20  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  60  82  59  82 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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