Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 221733
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 18Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER I-35 TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT
THE WRF SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THUS VFR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SOUTH CENTRAL TX TAFS. TOWARD THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF
PERIODS...A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM EAST
TX INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY GENERATE CONVECTION. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT TO RE-TREND
HOURLY VALUES THROUGH 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75 100  75 /   0  -   10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  73  98  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  73  99  73 /  -   -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  73  97  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 102  78 102  79 /  -   10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  74  98  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  73  99  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  75  96  77 /  -   20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  98  76 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  74  99  75 /  -   -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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