Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KEWX 281145 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA SITES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO GET CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
PLAINS/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
STORMS PUSHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS THE SURFACE LOW SITS FEW MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED AN EASTERLY WAVE AT 500MB
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COAST WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A TROUGH
EXTENDED DOWN THE ROCKIES FROM WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
SLACK AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS WERE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL COMBINE TO SPLIT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OF BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
CHANCES LOOK BETTER FRIDAY THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
FORECAST TO SUGGEST STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE PW IS
EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE SLIGHT TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS WILL ALLOW CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RETREATING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY LABOR DAY AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ONE IS FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS MAY BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  96  76  96 /  20  20  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  74  96  73  95 /  20  20  40  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  94  74  94 /  20  10  30  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  78  97  77  99 /  10  10  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  76  94  75  94 /  20  20  40  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  73  95  73  96 /  20  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  75  95 /  20  20  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  95  76  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  96  77  96 /  20  20  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  97 /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.