Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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404
FXUS64 KEWX 272344
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Strong high pressure over the region will suppress most cloud
development and conditions at all area airports will be VFR through
this period. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 kts until
around sunset when then will drop below 10 kts. Winds will increase
again late morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Water vapor imagery from this afternoon shows a mid and upper level
circulation moving inland across south Texas. This feature along with
daytime heating will continue to generate isolated convection across
the coastal plains through this afternoon. With the loss of daytime
heating, shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate by early
evening. On Friday, the models suggest a weak mid-level circulation
could continue across deep south Texas. While this feature may help
initiate convection along portions of the Rio Grande plains tomorrow,
it currently appears chances are too low to mention in the forecast
at this time. Later shifts may need to add a low chance for isolated
showers and storms tomorrow afternoon pending future hi-res model
guidance. Otherwise, it will be hot again on Friday with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 90s in the Hill Country to near 100 to
105 for the remainder of the region. We will likely be close to Heat
Advisory levels, but the models continue to show efficient mixing of
dew point temperatures tomorrow afternoon. This should help keep the
heat index values just below advisory levels. However, we continue to
stress the importance of heat safety given the recent string of above
normal temperatures.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The warmest day of the forecast period for all of south central Texas
still looks to occur on Saturday. The models continue to advertise a
stout low-level thermal ridge will be in place across the region. In
addition, another day of efficient mixing will likely take place and
this will help boost temperatures from near 100 to near 107. On
Sunday, a weak cold front will begin to move in from the northeast.
This front along with some weak upper disturbances embedded in the
northerly flow aloft should help generate isolated to scattered
convection across all areas, except the Rio Grande plains.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees across most areas, but still
remain above climatological normals. Readings should range from the
mid 90s in the Hill Country to near 105 along the Rio Grande. Near to
slightly above normal temperatures will likely continue into the
middle of next week. The flow aloft will gradually transition to a
more northwesterly direction. This is usually favorable for at least
isolated to scattered convection given daytime heating and upper
level disturbances traversing the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, the medium range models differ on the strength of an
upper level trough set to move into Texas. Despite the differences in
timing, it does appear we will see a trend toward a slight increase
in rain chances along with temperatures easing closer toward
climatological normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 103  78 104  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 101  75 102  77 /  -   -   -   10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 102  74 103  76 /  -   -   -   -   20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  98  75 101  75 /  -   -   -   20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 103  77 106  79 /  -   -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76 100  77 101  77 /  -   -   -   20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74 104  73 103  76 /  -   -   -   -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 101  75 101  77 /  -   -   -   10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 102  77 101  77 /  -   -   -   20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 102  76 104  78 /  -   -   -   -   20
Stinson Muni Airport           75 103  75 105  77 /  -   -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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