Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 100524
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR CIGS
WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TOMORROW IT LOOKS LIKE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE
A FEW HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PROB30 OF RA
STARTING AROUND 18Z AT DRT AND 21Z AT SAN ANTONIO AREA. THAN
STEADY RAIN STARTING 21Z AT DRT AND 00Z SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN.
FORECAST IS TRENDING WARMER AND CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP IS
DECREASING...BUT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE ESPECIALLY AT DRT EARLY IN
THE EVENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

UPDATE...HUGE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME (AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE)
STARTING ITS SURGE EAST INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS WERE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS
SHOULD BE OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. DID RAISE LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO TRENDS AND CLOUD
INCREASE. UPDATED TEXT FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INITIALLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OFF CA DIGGING TOWARD BAJA.
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING MODIFIES THE
AIR MASS FROM MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. TEMPERATURES ON NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
OVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY HAS A MID LEVEL LAYER COOLING TO BELOW
FREEZING AND LOWERING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE SURFACE WED AFTERNOON
INTO WED EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER. THEREFORE THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION(LIGHT
RAIN & SLEET/MIXED WITH SNOW HILL COUNTRY) WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
WED AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT RAIN
AND WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD DREARY RAIN TO
PERSIST THRU THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH A WET GROUND AND MINIMAL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE GROUND.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN HILL COUNTRY/CWA...HOWEVER
THE 18Z NAM SHOWED A WARMER SOUNDING..BUT HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

A DRY NWLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH COOL-MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS INTO THE 1ST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              34  44  33  39  37 /   0  40  90  80  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  29  44  34  38  36 /   0  40  90  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     33  44  35  40  37 /   0  50  90  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            29  42  33  37  34 /   0  40  80  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           37  40  35  43  37 /  -   70  60  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        28  44  33  38  35 /   0  30  80  80  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  43  35  42  35 /   0  70  90  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  44  34  39  38 /   0  40  90  80  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   33  43  35  42  38 /   0  30  90  90  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       34  43  35  42  37 /   0  60  90  80  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           34  44  36  42  38 /   0  60  90  80  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05





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