877
FXUS62 KFFC 301136
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
636 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Waves of rainfall are expected Today through Tuesday, with the
   possibility (30-40% chance) of light freezing rain in the
   northeast Georgia mountains this morning.

 - Another wave of rainfall is expected on Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Current radar loop shows the 1st round of showers moving into NW
GA. These showers are associated with a cold front extending from
SE TX up to the Mid-Atlantic states. This front is also associated
with the main low pressure system that dropped good amount of
wintery precipitation across the upper MS river valley and the
great lake states. Temps across North GA are still mainly in the
40s so not expecting much in the way of wintery precip this
morning. There may be some brief periods of mix precipitation at
the higher elevations of the NE GA mountains but not expecting any
accumulations. As this front moves into the state it is pushing
into a CAD wedge (Cold Air Damming) setup down the eastern
seaboard by the exiting high pressure ridge centered just of the
Mid-Atlantic coast. This wedge is keeping cool stable easterly
flow over the area as showers move in. This front is expected to
continue pushing SE Today stalling across central/south GA
tonight It begins to make its way back northward as a warm front
Monday as the next wave moves northward out of the western gulf.
This wave also moves into the established CAD wedge which keeps
things very stable across the area. These two rounds of
precipitation will drop a decent amount across north ands central
GA. Expecting most areas to see 1" to 1.5" through Monday night
with some isolated ares seeing near 2 inch two day totals.

High temps Today will be mainly in the upper 40s to 50s across
north GA with some upper 50s to middle 60s across central GA. with
some 60s Temps dip back down into the 30s and 40s Tonight. Highs
Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today but still mainly
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the long term period picks up on Monday night, a 500 mb longwave
trough will be moving from the Great Plains towards the middle
Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of this trough, much of the
Southeast will be positioned underneath southwesterly flow aloft,
which will pump moisture into the region, increasing dewpoints and
precipitable water values. A mid-level disturbance will be
positioned near the central Louisiana coast, with an associated
surface low developing just offshore. As this disturbance traverses
the southwesterly flow aloft, it will phase with the longwave trough
as it continues to swing eastward. This interaction will contribute
to the surface low intensifying and becoming more organized as it
approaches. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered near with Mid-
Atlantic coast will help maintain a CAD wedge along the lee side of
the Appalachians and across portions of north and east Georgia.

Through the overnight hours Monday night through Tuesday morning,
PWATs will increase to between 1.1-1.4 inches and dewpoints will
increase to between the low 40s in far northeast Georgia to the mid
50s in south-central Georgia. Showers ahead of this low will
increase in coverage from west to east ahead of the low, becoming
widespread (with categorical PoPs) across the entire forecast area
after midnight and through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Rainfall
totals associated with this system are fairly consistent with
previous forecasts, and are anticipated to range from 1-2 inches
across the area, with the highest totals roughly along the I-85
corridor and in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia.
Recent dry conditions should largely inhibit flash flooding
concerns, though nuisance ponding of water could occur in low-lying
areas and (unique to this time of the year) where ample leaf litter
is clogging drainage systems. As such, there is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall per WPC through 7 AM Tuesday.

Temperatures at the ridgetops could drop into the mid 30s early
Tuesday morning, so it cannot be ruled out that a couple of
locations in the highest elevations could see a brief rain/freezing
rain mix in the pre-dawn hours. However, this possibility continues
to trend less likely and measurable ice accumulation is not
expected. With the lingering wedge and overcast skies, high
temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s to low 50s in north
Georgia, and convective activity is thus not expected in these
areas. Temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s, dewpoints in the
mid 50s in east-central Georgia and increased low-level shear ahead
of a cold front trailing from the low could allow for the
development of a few isolated storms in the southeast corner of the
forecast area. Severe weather is not anticipated with any isolated
storms that are able to develop.

Rain will begin to diminish from west to east late Tuesday afternoon
and evening as the trough axis swings through north Georgia and the
strengthening low and trailing cold front move away towards the Mid-
Atlantic coast. With northwesterly flow and cold air advection
setting up over the area, low temperatures on Wednesday morning are
forecast to be in the mid to upper 20s to the north of I-85 and low
to mid 30s to the south. Ridging over the east CONUS and surface
high pressure moving across the Southeast will promote clearing
skies and benign conditions on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday withing
the post-frontal airmass will be about 5-9 degrees below daily
normals, in the low to mid 50s across the area. The shallow ridge
will quickly move away to the east on Wednesday night into Thursday,
with southwesterly flow setting up across the Southeast once again
through the end of the period. Another disturbance moving from the
far northwest Gulf through the Southeast will bring the next round
of precipitation on late in the week. Model inconsistency remain
with respect to the timing and evolution of this feature, though is
coming into better agreement that precipitation will be most likely
Friday through Saturday. With surface high pressure near New England
forcing another wedge into north Georgia, it is looking increasingly
likely that Friday is setting up to be a raw and dreary day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Showers moving E to SE across the area this morning. Mainly MVFR
ceilings with east winds in the 6-12kt range. Ceilings should stay
in this range until the front moves through this afternoon then
fall into the IFR range with some light drizzle. Once the front
moves through winds will shift to the W to NW. VSBYs will be in
the VFR to MVFR range with the precip.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.


01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  39  50  38 /  50  30  30 100
Atlanta         51  39  53  42 /  70  30  50 100
Blairsville     49  30  49  34 /  70  10  30 100
Cartersville    50  32  53  39 /  80  20  50 100
Columbus        64  45  61  50 /  40  30  50 100
Gainesville     48  38  50  39 /  70  30  40 100
Macon           62  44  60  46 /  20  30  30  90
Rome            52  32  56  43 /  60  10  50 100
Peachtree City  55  39  55  43 /  60  30  50 100
Vidalia         69  49  64  50 /  10  20  20  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01