565
FXUS62 KFFC 132055
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024



...Afternoon Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast required a quick update this afternoon to better reflect
the cooler airmass left in the wake of this morning/early
afternoon`s precipitation, so have lowered temperatures by a few
degrees areawide. Additionally, a wake low has developed across
portions of west central and southwest central Georgia, and gusts
to 40-45 mph are possible for areas south of the Atlanta Metro and
east of Macon through approximately 6:30 PM this evening.
Unsecured outdoor items and furniture may be blown around, and
trees and powerlines may be downed in areas that have more
saturated soils from recent rainfall.

96


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Current Mosaic radar loop shows mainly showers moving across North
and Central GA this afternoon. There are a few lightning strikes
mainly south of MCN and CSG but the main area of thunderstorms is
staying along the Gulf coast. With these storms hugging the gulf
coast over the next 24 hours and the best instability and
atmospheric energy staying south as well it makes sense that SPC has
pulled the marginal risk out of north and central GA and keeping it
across South GA Forecast rainfall totals through tonight have also
been reduced due to the decreased convective potential, and we now
expect amounts in the 0.20 to 0.90 inch range through 8 AM Tuesday
mainly across central GA.

As for Tuesday a weak shortwave trough should rotate around the
parent trough in the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning. This should
lead to a relative peak in rainfall coverage across the state.
Clearing skies behind the shortwave and diurnal heating should
result in the development of scattered thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Though mid-level lapse range appear modest (5.5-6.0
C/km), increasing instability (SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km
shear values between 20 and 35 kt could generate a couple of strong
or severe thunderstorms. The main hazards with any storms are
expected to be damaging winds, periods of heavy rain, frequent
lightning strikes, and  hail. The storm prediction center currently
has all of North and Central GA painted with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather. The showers and thunderstorms will
slowly diminish after sunset Tuesday with some showers continuing
across North GA with the wrap around moisture from the parent low
over IL/IN/KY.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Looking at the week ahead beginning with Wednesday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area as the
low pressure system to the north moves off into the Atlantic.
Following this system slight ridging sets up to the west causing us
to have a dry period into Thursday as our next system sets up. This
dry period will accompany a slight warmup but overall a pleasant week
is expected.

Looking at the next system, there relies a bit of model spread at
this point. A low pressure system moves eastward across the mid
Mississippi valley bringing us rainfall for Friday along with a cool
down into the mid to upper 70s for highs. Where the uncertainty
comes is whether the system will become cutoff and mainly affect
southern GA through the weekend or if we will see this rainfall into
north and central GA. Currently kept PoPs relatively on trend from
the overnight package, but increased rainfall will be something to
watch for central GA into the weekend should this system track
further north. Current rainfall amounts are 2-2.5" over 18 hours but
our Pwats are anonymously higher for this time of year with Pwats
close to 2.5" forecasted which remains a concern. Will keep watching
this as the week progresses.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Ceilings are mainly VFR with precip ending across the ATL/AHN
area TAF sites. Will continue to see precipitation across CSG/MCN
for a few more hours. expecting MVFR and IFR ceilings to move in
after sunset and stay across the area through early Tue afternoon.
Will also see some light showers/drizzle overnight through Tue
morning ahead of the next round of precip moving back in across
the state Tue Afternoon. VSBYs are also in the VFR range but will
fall into the MVFR range over night with the lowered ceilings.
They should comeback into the VFR range as the ceilings lift Tue.
Winds are out of the East right now and will turn to the SE this
evening then to the SW just after daybreak Tue. Wind speeds will
stay in the 6-12kt range.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  76  62  81 /  80  90  70  30
Atlanta         62  77  63  80 /  60  90  70  30
Blairsville     56  70  57  73 /  70  80  80  70
Cartersville    61  77  61  79 /  50  90  70  40
Columbus        65  80  66  83 /  60 100  50  10
Gainesville     61  73  63  78 /  70  90  70  50
Macon           64  79  65  83 /  60  90  50  10
Rome            62  77  61  80 /  40  90  70  40
Peachtree City  62  78  63  81 /  50  90  60  20
Vidalia         66  81  69  86 /  70  90  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...01