055
FXUS63 KFGF 090035
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of lake effect snow will continue this evening along
  the south shore of Lake of the Woods. Light accumulations are
  possible within thin bands of snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Flurries have overspread much of northeast ND and far northwest
MN as a mid level shortwave is dropping through the region in
north-northwest flow aloft. A very light dusting is being
observed where some of this activity is tracking (mainly on
grassy surfaces). If this were to accumulate on roads, slick
spots could develop creating minor travel impacts as folks
adjust to early winter driving. I made adjustments to account
for this activity during the evening period when this mid level
wave is expected to transition to the south, with less
confidence after midnight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Light snow continues off and on this afternoon and evening around
Lake of the Woods, the northern Red River Valley, and portions of
the Devils Lake Basin. A strong H5 trough is moving southeast this
afternoon, allowing cold air to advect into the area from the north
and northwest. Breezy north winds are expected through the evening
and into the early overnight hours, with a few gusts to 35 mph
possible. Gusts taper off after midnight, with surface winds still
ranging from 10 to 15 mph for most locations. Lows tonight fall into
the lower teens in the Devils Lake Basin, with upper teens in the
southern Red River Valley. Highs on Sunday will reach the upper 20s
to low 30s. Warmer temperatures return heading into next week as H5
ridging builds into the Northern Plains. High temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday should reach the 30s on Monday to near 50 degrees on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A stratus layer (2500-3500 FT AGL) is lingering over eastern ND
and northwest MN with localized MVFR conditions still being
reported early this evening, along with, pockets of light
flurries (no vis reductions or accumulations). Guidance favors
a clearing of this stratus as drier air filter in from the north
later this evening, however satellite/obs continue to show
upstream stratus with only a few pockets of clearing. I delayed
improvement until late evening/early overnight based on
observed trends. After the period of VFR another area of MVFR
stratus is shown to overspread northwest MN and just into the
Red River Valley of eastern ND Sunday morning. This layer is
more likely to linger in MN with improvement to the west based
on current guidance trends.

Winds from the northwest remain gusty most of the TAF period.
There should be a decrease in gusts/prevailing winds this
evening/overnight as winds become slightly more west-
northwest but sustained winds are still likely to remain near
12kt. Northwest winds would then be expected to increase once
again during the daytime period Sunday (gusts 25 to 30kt in
eastern ND).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR