Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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714 FXUS63 KFGF 051045 CCA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 403 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow ends in far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota this morning, with a slight chance for light south of I- 94 Saturday. - Tuesday will see potential stronger system with 60 percent chance of advisory impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...Synopsis... Our current 500 mb short wave and sfc low is moving east- southeast. It is quite weak but is noted in water vapor satellite in northeast SD at 08z. Light snow with this system mainly close to the SD border and into southern parts of west central MN. Winds have turned northerly from Fargo and points north with colder air sinking south, but not a big push at this time, but cold advection increases thru the day, especially this afternoon and into the evening. Lots of cloud cover upstream as considerable moisture remain in the 925-850 mb to start the day with drier airmass noted moving into this layer this evening as colder, drier airmass moves in. Lingering light snow along SD border this morning. Under any of the stratocu some flurries are possible as well but didnt broad brush flurries at this time. There was freezing drizzle in several locations in E ND and parts of the RRV at the time of the front and wind shift dropping south this past evening. Freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out but overall the atmospheric conditions for this is lessening as colder air deepens so did not continue fzdz mention past 12z. Tonight thru Sunday will see colder airmass in place, with high pressure anchored in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan with sfc ridge southeast into eastern ND. The next clipper system will ridge on the southwest edge of this cold airmass and bring a period of light snow Saturday, mainly from eastern Montana, thru western into south central ND and into South Dakota, with chances for light snow brushing far southeast ND where a few tenths of an inch of snow may occur south of Fargo. Fargo and north will be dry. Dry weather all areas on Sunday with high pressure center moving southeast and over the Red River valley Sunday morning. If skies are clear, then temperatures will be well down into the teens below zero but winds are near calm so wind chills not much different than the actual temperature. Early next week will see the baroclinic zone or boundary between the colder arctic airmass and a milder airmass shift east into western half of ND Monday. Ahead of it will be some light snow with snow amounts half inch or so possible. Monday night into Tuesday will see a much stronger 500 mb wave come off the Pacific and into central B.C. with sfc low forming in central Alberta and likely to head southeast along the baroclinic zone. The track of the low will depend on where the baroclinic zone will be. System though has Pacific moisture and thus more QPF to work with in terms of potential snow. Just north of low track is where the main snowfall potential will be but where that is while there isnt a large spread at the moment among the models I am sure there will be run to run differences heading over the next 48 hours. Thus confidence in some part of our forecast area getting advisory level snow is increasing (60 percent via WPC) the location of that is low confidence. There remains a 10 pct chance of warning impacts. This would be Tuesday into Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Widespread MVFR to IFR stratus remains in place over much of eastern ND and northwest MN, with a pocket of VFR still near KFAR early in the TAF period that should rapidly fill in based on nearby obs. There have been reports of very light freezing drizzle over parts of the region, but the transition (mainly northeast ND and far northwest MN), but the transition to all snow appears to be underway. The main area of accumulating snow and vis reductions due to snow rates is in line to move over southeast ND and west central MN through Friday morning. This ends but stratus lingers at least through the afternoon, with drier arctic air starting to arrive late afternoon and evening in ND though this may not be enough to bring VFR to KGFK/KFAR until after 06Z. Winds are shifting to the north then northwest as the low pressure tracks over southeast ND into MN while a cold front drops south (already in the northern Red River Valley). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...DJR