738
FXUS63 KFGF 070909
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
409 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Frost advisory and freeze warning impacts early this morning
  and early Wednesday morning over portions of eastern North
  Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Main challenge is addressing potential impacts from frost and
freezing temperatures and how low temperatures will get this
early morning and again early Wednesday.

...Frost/freeze potential early this morning and early
Wednesday...


High pressure is near Broadview SK at 08z...high pressure is
moving southeast behind a cold front which is near INL-FSE-FAR
line. Colder air behind the front is slowly spreading into
northeast ND with temps dropping to near 32F Langdon at 09z with
20s upstream in SW Manitoba. So should still see a drop in temps
as sunrise approaches and colder air spreads southeast thru NE
ND and far NW MN. Band of clouds just ahead of front is exiting
the southeast fcst area with mainly clear sky over the area.
Mainly clear today with high pressure moving southeast to be
near Fargo at 00z Wed and then slide southeast from there
tonight. Expect the coldest temps this upcoming night/early Wed
to be in MN, with a mean ensembles indicating greater than 70
pct of 2m temps of below 32F east of the Red River valley in
northern MN, down into the Wadena area. Feel colder spots will
drop into the upper 20s in northwest, north central MN. Farther
west into the RRV...winds will turn southeast overnight. Expect
in this situation a more variable temp pattern with rural
locations dropping to near or just below 32F by 06z then steady
while towns may stay just above freezing. After much discussion
with neighboring offices, decided to convert the freeze watch
area to a freeze warning. Leave nothing out at this time for
southeast ND and far west central MN based on coord with
MPX/ABR. Likely frost advisory for some of the area. DVL
basin/Langdon has a freeze warning this morning and not as cold
this upcoming night, but does it make sense to go frost
adv...temps in this area may hold 35-38 as winds increase
overnight. So nothing issued for this area at this time for the
upcoming night.

Broad 500 mb ridge builds eastward as a 500 mb trough moves into
western Canada and the Pacific NW. Models diverge quite a bit
with speed and location of short waves moving northeast from
this trough as entire 500 mb trough moves east. Consensus has
been thte past few days of indicating Sat night into Sunday
seeing best chance for showers and this is maintained.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Low aviation impacts are expected for the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will prevail after 12z with VFR conditions
prevailing for the entire TAF period. Southerly winds will
make it to the area by the end of the TAF period, eventually
spreading to all sites from west to east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ008-016-
     026>030.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022-023.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux