772
FXUS63 KFGF 101637
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1037 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional periods of light snow through Thursday night.
  Probability of total snow of more than 3 inches is 30 percent
  in far southeast North Dakota through this period.


- Brief but intense cold snap Friday into Saturday, 80 percent
  chance for wind chills to drop to -30F or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Stratiform and HCR-type snow showers are prevalent on radar and
satellite. This is anticipated to continue into the early
afternoon before moisture and forcing diminishes to a point
where snow diminishes. While snow showers are of the HCR
variety, they are rather weak, with limited visibility
reductions down to around 1 mile at times, but not likely less
than 1 mile.

While snow will be light, it is very fluffy. Thus, up to around
1 inch of additional snow is expected today.

Winds will remain out of the north 10-20 mph through the
afternoon. This will promote drifting snow in open country,
particularly in areas that received new accumulations since
yesterday afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Band of light snow is moving east and back edge is at the Red
River. Lingering snow showers or flurries though west of this is
likely in stratocu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Main 500 short wave and sfc moving quickly southeast into
southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa at 09z. There is a 500 mb
short wave trough axis extending north into the Red River valley
causing an additional area of light snow. This light snow area
moves gradually east today and weakens. In this light snow area
thru noon half inch of snow is likely in the Red River valley
10z to 16z period with potential for 1 inch. Winds are gusty in
the far southern valley with gusts 30 mph Wahpeton but farther
north gusts are gone with winds in the 15-20 mph range. With
blowing snow not an issue, did coord with BIS and DLH and we
dropped the winter weather advisory around 09z.

There will be additional short waves moving east and southeast
from southern and central Alberta thru Thursday night. Impacts
are mainly in regards to freezing rain potential not in our area
but from parts of Montana thru SW ND into SD. Light snow
periodic tonight thru Thursday night, with the Thursday night
light snow along an arctic cold front that will move through.

This front will bring a 2 day cold snap with wind chills likely
to drop to -30F and lower. 20 percent chance of wind chills -40F
and lower for a time Saturday morning.

500 mb flow goes more zonal quickly next week with temperatures
moderating. To what degree they moderate or rise to is
uncertain due to snowcover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Want to update the Aviation discussion to note on uncertainty
through 21Z. Lingering stratiform snow mixed with snow showers
are creating variable conditions ranging between VFR and IFR.
Ceilings are bouncing around between VFR and MVFR, whereas
visibility at times are dipping into IFR, particularly within
snow showers.

This is anticipated to be the case until around 21Z when
moisture and forcing diminishes enough to cease snow shower
production. Expect TEMPO groups to be prevalent within TAFs
until around this time.


AVIATION
Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mix of lower end VFR and MVFR cigs today along with morning
variable visibility in snow mostly 2-5SM in snow and shifting
more toward MN side of the Red River.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ/Riddle