366
FXUS63 KFGF 281140
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
640 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is expected across portions of northwest
  and west central Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

We remain cloud free this morning, with temperatures in the 40s
and 50s. Refreshed grids a bit, otherwise no changes are needed
to the going forecast at this time.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Clear, quiet and calm early this morning when looking at radar
and satellite. Persistent ridging will keep this period of calm
over our region through the early workweek. A fast hitting
shortwave will pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers
look to be limited in areal coverage to near the International
Border as the wave quickly propagates to the north and east.
Troughing over the western US will set up southwesterly flow
over the Northern Plains by late week. This will increase
precipitation chances towards next weekend, but right now
guidance gives the idea of "waves" of systems that cause
occasional chances for rain with breaks in between, not one
larger system that would provide more persistent and widespread
precipitation.

...Near Critical Fire Weather...

Another afternoon of above average temperatures, low dewpoints
and a well mixed boundary layer will combine to create near
critical fire weather across portions of northwest and west
central MN. Looking upstream in SD/central ND, dewpoints are
higher, and these values will be advecting into our region due
to a south/southwest wind by this afternoon. Winds will be
stronger then yesterday due to a tighter pressure gradient, with
gusts topping out around 20 knots. All told, decided to issue
an SPS for the forested areas of MN where the lower RH values
look to reside. If higher dewpoints fail to advect as far east
as currently forecasted, another tier of counties to the west of
the current SPS will likely see near critical fire weather
conditions as well for a few hours this afternoon. Near critical
fire weather will continue to be a concern through midweek. The
lowest RH and highest winds still look to not overlap though on
any one given day, which should alleviate critical fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR is forecasted throughout the TAF period. Very few updates
were made to the previous set of TAFs. Winds will become gusty
for a few hours this afternoon out of the south, but outside of
that, no aviation impacts are anticipated.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty