654
FXUS63 KFGF 061006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
406 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures this weekend.

- Early to mid next week...active period with stronger system
  arriving Tuesday, with a 90 percent chance of at least
  advisory level impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...Synopsis...

Sfc high pressure is building into the northern RRV with its
center in northeast Alberta. Drier air is upstream at 850 mb
pushing southeast, but still having areas of stratocu lower
clouds hanging around far southern Manitoba and into northeast
ND and far northwest MN. But elsewhere the lower clouds have
lifted and more mid clouds moving east-southeast thru the area
in advance of the current short wave in Montana. Light snow in
mid level warm advection zone is in northwestern into central ND
at 08z. It is running into a lot of dry air though as it moves
east. Expectatation today is that the light snow in central ND
moves southeast and is rather weak, while a newer area of snow
develops in an area of stronger 850 mb warm advection that forms
in advance of a stronger short wave moving out of Wyoming this
afternoon. Snowfall to expand and intensify in the Sioux Falls
and moves east thru far southern MN and northern Iowa late today
and tonight with lingering very light snow northwest thru
northeast and north central SD into parts of southern ND. The
northern light snow eventually dries out as sfc high drops
southeast toward Saskatoon by 21z today and then into central
and eastern North Dakota tonight. Should see clearing of most of
the clouds as this occurs into tonight, but high clouds will
quickly advance east heading into Sunday morning.

Only area to see very light snow today will be far southeast ND
with amounts trace to a few tenths. Until the stratocu
dissipates a few flurries possible from any cloud that moves
over so did keep some mention of flurries in many areas thru
midday.

Sunday afternoon and night will see an area of 850-700 mb warm
advection push east behind departing high. Some light snow with
this warm advection Sunday night, but another trace to a few
tenths at most.

Early next week... one system for which models disagree on
strength is on Monday as a clipper wave moves southeast from
central Saskatchewan into the Red River by 00z Tue. Narrow band
of frontogenetical may develop with this wave in a narrow zone
just north of the sfc low and there is good consensus among
models and ensembles of a narrow zone of 1-2 inch snowfall
potential near the Minnesota/North Dakota/Manitoba border area
Monday night.

...Tuesday system...

In our never clipper train, we do have a stronger system that
has more moisture with it and comes onshore from the Pacific
into west central British Columbia Monday and quickly develops
surface low in west central Alberta and tracks southeast along a
likely baroclnic zone separating temps above freezing from temps
in the 20s and teens. 850 mb low, 700 mb low and sfc low
development Monday afternoon into Monday night will occur
quickly as it moves into southern Saskatchewan, with a
strenghtening 850 mb jet of 50 kts east of the 850/sfc low
creating a strong warm advection zone and sufficient lift for a
band of moderate to potentially heavy snowfall. This would be
just north of the sfc/850 mb low and its track. All models and
ensembles from Canadian global, ECMWF, GFS, ICON, AI models are
in good agreement that this system will impact a large part of
our forecast area with WPC indicating 90 pct chance of advisory
level impacts thru a large part of the area...focus of these
impacts though are still not as clear cut as would hope. But
that is to be expected this far out. Operational 00z GFS is a
tad farther north and NBM is a bit farther north than 00z ECMWF
operational and ensemble suite with GFS highest probs of more
than 3 inches snow DVL-GFK-BJI while ECMWF a bit more
northwest-southeast focus from Minot to Fargo. 00z ECMWF 12/4
Extreme Fcst Index (EFI) shows a strong signal for impacts with
snow in that area from southeast Sask thru north central into
east central and southeast MN into parts of west central MN.
Wind to be a factor, though if low takes the path above, then
highest winds will be in the cold advection west and southwest
of the low in SW ND into central SD. But does look like a period
of north winds using ECMWF and GFS ensembles of 30 kts Tues
night...esp 06z-12z Wed period. So it is possible that snowfall
amounts may be in advisory impacts, but if we do get stronger
winds then it may be enough to push overall impacts into warning
range. (10 percent chance).










&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Most locations are VFR with pockets of stratus above 3000 FT
AGL across eastern ND and northwest MN, with only a few
localized pockets of MVFR stratus that is starting to lift.
Flurries are still periodically being reported, and as long as
low stratus is in place these can`t be ruled out in this
pattern. THe next mid level wave is arriving in northwest ND
and spreading east-southeast that will bring new MVFR stratus
and the potential for light accumulating snow mainly to far
southeast ND Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings may redevelop for a
period of time though at KFAR as this passes before guidance
favors prevailing VFR the rest of the day Saturday and Saturday
night with much drier arctic air returning behind another cold
front.

Winds are trending from the west-northwest to north-northeast as
surface ridging is slowly breaking down over eastern ND and a
nearly stationary frontal zone/weaker gradient sets up ahead of
the next cold front Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR