447
FXUS65 KFGZ 061721
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1021 AM MST Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect pleasant Fall-like weather for the first half
of the week. Unsettled conditions and increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances return to the area during the second half of
the week and last through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will gradually build into Arizona from
the southeast through mid week. This will lead to pleasant weather
with daytime temperatures gradually warming to 5-10 degrees above
normal by Wednesday. Southwesterly afternoon breezes in the 10-15
mph range are forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of a shower or
thunderstorm in Apache County Wednesday afternoon as some moisture
may push westward into that area.

Thursday through the weekend - forecast models are in decent
agreement in the overall weather pattern, the ridge shifting even
farther west and the trough remaining over the west coast through
Friday and then pushing eastward into our region for the weekend.
This places Arizona in enhanced south-southwesterly flow and is
expected to pull significant amounts of moisture northward. Grand
ensemble mean precipitable water increases from <0.30" early this
week to 0.80"-1.00" Thursday afternoon through Saturday. There is
spread among the ensemble members though, with the 75th
percentile closer to 1.00"-1.50" (highest in Yavapai Co) showing
a chance at rather wet conditions. These PW values would also be
close to the maximum on record for this time of year. The model
variability seems to result from slightly different handling of
some of the remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla that the
NHC forecasts to be just west of the Baja spur by Friday afternoon,
having weakened into a Tropical Storm by that time. The initial
push of moisture is forecast on Thursday, then peaking on Friday
into Saturday. The threat of locally heavy rainfall increases
Friday into Saturday as the west coast trough approaches and large
scale lift may interact with the moisture plume. Confidence has
increased since yesterday in this scenario, with our shower/t-storm
chances now 30-50% Thursday, increasing to 40-60% Friday into the
weekend. We`ll have to wait and see how much of the tropical
moisture gets pulled northward as that will have an impact on how
widespread showers and thunderstorms will be as well as the heavy
rainfall threat, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Winds S-SW winds 5-10 kts during the
day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected until after 18Z Thursday. Daytime winds
S-SW 5-10 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 kts on Wednesday.
Overnight winds light and variable or terrain driven.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Seasonably warm and dry
conditions. Winds south/southwest 5-10 mph, along with minimum RH
around 10-20% each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Slight chance of showers along the AZ/NM
border on Wednesday, with a better shot for areawide showers and
thunderstorms with wetting rains possible on Thursday and Friday.
South winds 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff