497
FXUS65 KFGZ 151729
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another hot, dry mid-June day today before
cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. Dry conditions
will combine with breezy southwest winds to create near critical
fire weather conditions both Sunday and Monday. Hot temperatures
and lighter winds return towards the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Forecast update this morning mainly focused around
upping winds for Sunday into Monday as NBM is running too low,
especially with winds gusts. Took MOS guidance which matches well
with HREF winds and resulted in higher sustained winds and gusts.
This pushed areas of near critical fire danger to RFW conditions.
Will continue to evaluate this and send hazards as appropriate
with the afternoon package in a couple hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /412 AM MST/...Weak zonal flow and elevated
geopotential pressure heights over the region will allow for sunny
skies and daytime temperatures to climb a few to five degrees above
average. Southwest winds will be modest with typical afternoon
breezes expected. However, this warming trend will be short lived. A
broad upper-level trough will dictate the weather across much of the
Southwest U.S. the next several days. The associated low pressure
center is currently located just west of the southern British
Columbia. This low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest
U.S. before progressing eastward over the next several days. This
will decrease pressure heights over Arizona while also tightening
pressure gradients. Expect temperatures to be near to just below
seasonal conditions Sunday through Tuesday. More importantly, winds
will steadily increase from late Saturday through Monday. Peak gusts
are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range on Sunday, increasing
to 25 to 35 mph by Monday with localized areas seeing gusts closer
to 40 mph. With fuels continuing to dry out, near critical fire
weather conditions are expected due to the low humidity and
increasing winds. Be firewise, and follow all burn bans and/or
restrictions.

Wednesday through Saturday...Once the low pressure area travels
far enough eastward, gradients will relax and pressure will slowly
begin to increase over the region. Expect a weak warming trend
and more diurnal fluctuations in the winds with afternoon breezes
generally between 15 and 20 mph. In addition, watch for moisture
to sneak into eastern Arizona from New Mexico towards the end of
next week, creating a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This will likely be relegated to Apache County with the
best chances for rain in the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds SW10-15g20-25kts from 19Z-02Z, otherwise
variable less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds S-Sw15-25g30-35kts from 18Z-02Z each day and
decreasing to less than 10kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and dry today, temperatures
drop around 5 degrees on Sunday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph for
today, increasing to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, on
Sunday. Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions across
northwestern Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and windy on Monday, with southwest
winds 15 to 25 mph gusting 30 to 40 mph. A decrease in temperatures
Monday results in a slight increase in RH, especially over the high
terrain. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely along and
north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures remain near to below average
through Wednesday with breezy southwest winds each day, 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Mazon
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MCT/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff