730
FXUS65 KFGZ 122251
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
351 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be
the main story through the rest of the work-week. Over the
weekend, cooler and wetter conditions anticipated. Additional
unsettled weather may return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hard to believe we are nearly halfway through
November and temperatures are still in the 50s and 60s across much
of the High Country! Daytime highs look to land 5-15 degrees above
normal through the end of the work-week, as an area of high
pressure remains settled over Arizona.

Over the weekend is where things start to shake up. A closed low
will be sitting off the California Coast by late Friday/early
Saturday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this storm
system has slowed down tremendously over the last 36 hours or so.
As a result, precipitation likely won`t begin until Saturday
afternoon/evening, but we can`t completely rule out a stray shower
or two on Friday along our western CWA border. Before even
noticing potential moisture, cooler temperatures and breezy
southerly winds will be expected. Not only have we noticed this
system slowing down before reaching Arizona, it also looks to come
in much warmer. Snow levels look to be above 10,000 feet through
much of Saturday before slightly dipping closer to 7500-8000 feet
on Sunday. Snowfall accumulation should be minimal to none across
populated areas, but the Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks, and
White Mountains may see measurable snowfall. Even though we aren`t
expecting widespread snowy weather across northern Arizona,
rainfall is expected. Currently QPF amounts look to be 0.50" to
1.25" along and south of the Mogollon Rim, and generally 0.25" or
less across the Little Colorado River Valley and Navajo Nation.

Next week...Another storm system could slide through much of the
Southwest, but confidence is very low at this time. Simply looking
at the recent ECMWF and GFS runs, they both suggest a closed low
pushing south along the California Coast, but they very much
differ on timing and overall trajectory. Only time will tell on
how this continuing unsettled pattern plays out. Check back later
for more details!

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 13/00Z through Friday 14/00Z...Look for VFR
conditions with the exception of local haze/smoke due to
prescribed burns. Winds generally light and variable overnight
becoming south at 10-15 kts with gust to 20 kts on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 14/00Z through Sunday 16/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Isolated rain showers developing after 00Z Saturday,
along and west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Winds south at 10-15 kts
gusting to 20 kts on Friday increasing to 10-20 kts gusting to 25
kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry with temperatures 10
degrees above average on Thursday. By Friday temperatures begin a
cooling trend but still remain 5 degrees above average.  By Friday
evening a chance of rain will move into the area. Winds S-SW 10-15
mph with gusts to 20 mph both days. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25%
Thursday, increasing to 20-35% Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Unsettled and cooler weather arrives late
Friday night into early Saturday and lasts through the weekend. The
highest precipitation chances are from late Saturday through Sunday,
primarily rain with snow levels down near 8000 feet by Sunday. Winds
SE-S 10-20 mph on Saturday, SW 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph Sunday
and SW 10-15 mph on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff