948
FXUS65 KFGZ 232035
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
135 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue
through this evening. Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday
through Friday. There is potential for another system to impact the
area over the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure currently sits across central/eastern
Arizona and will continue to move off towards the northeast this
afternoon. Moisture across the region remains ample enough for
ongoing rain/snow showers but as the low pulls off through the Four
Corners and into Colorado, we should start to see any remaining
shower activity taper off through this evening. Any additional
amounts at this point look to be on the light side but keep in mind
that areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim saw around 0.50-1.50"
of liquid in the past 24 hours and some of the creeks may still be
running a little bit on the high side (but will subside through the
evening). With all the lingering low level moisture around be aware
that there may be some patchy fog around the region into Monday
morning.

Monday through Friday...A strengthening ridge will push towards the
area on Monday, bringing warming temperatures and dry conditions to
the region. Temperatures will warm a little bit each day with highs
around 5-10 degrees above normal by Thursday. If you are traveling
for Thanksgiving, you are in luck as the weather looks to be nearly
perfect. By Friday, the ridge starts to break down with the flow
becoming more zonal across the state. A weak trough off of the Baja
California coast moves inland but other than a slight dip in
temperatures, it appears to have little to no impact to our
sensible weather.

Beyond Friday...the next system looks to arrive next weekend with
the potential for more rain/snow and possibly some strong winds. The
model guidance continues to struggle with the depth, timing, and
placement of the trough, which all are an important piece of the
forecast puzzle. For now, you should keep on top of the forecast,
especially if you are traveling after the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...IFR/MVFR
conditions in SHRA/SHSN, with the lowest flight categories at
higher elevation TAF sites. Activity begins to diminish after 21Z,
with low CIGS remaining in place for at least few hours
thereafter. Otherwise, localized area of FG/BR overnight. Winds
are SW-W 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds W/NW 5-10 kts on Monday, becoming N/NE on Tuesday. Locally
breezy NE winds downwind of terrain features overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Mild conditions return, no
precipitation expected. Winds are generally out of the northwest to
north 5-10 mph. Humidity lingers, with minimum RH 40-60% on Monday
then 30-50% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Mild and drier conditions continue
through the end of the week. Winds are variable at 10 mph or less
Wednesday and Thursday, the southwest 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH
generally above 25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff