745
FXUS65 KFGZ 012015
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
115 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry weather continues Tuesday. Another weak
weather system brings a chance of light rain and snow showers from
Wednesday into early Thursday but only for northeastern and
eastern parts of Arizona. Fair weather returns Thursday afternoon
with a warming trend beginning on Friday and lasting through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Trough that brought the clouds and a few showers to
far northeast Arizona is well east of the area this afternoon. In
the wake of this trough, we should see some of the coldest if not
the coldest morning lows of the season as winds die down and the
dry air moving in allows for some good radiational cooling
overnight.

Continued ridging over the eastern Pacific places us in a
relatively consistent northwesterly flow aloft which will keep us
dry Tuesday with temperatures near seasonal averages. A shortwave
riding down this northwesterly flow moves through the area
Wednesday into Thursday. However models have been coming into
pretty good agreement on placement of this wave, and each
successive model run has been pushing the wave further northeast
with a drier solution. As things stand now, the scenario looks
similar to the wave that just passed with the only places with any
type of precipitation expected will be the White Mountain region
and the Chuskas. Impacts should be relatively low with expected
QPF less than a tenth of an inch of rain or snow amounts less than
an inch. Temperatures retreat a little in the wake of this
system, with highs about 5 degrees above average.

After Thursday, the ridge over the Pacific will nudge to the east
a little over the weekend bringing a warming trend with
temperatures at seasonal averages Friday and about 5 degrees above
average Saturday and Sunday. Another shortwave rides down the east
side of the ridge Sunday night into Monday but at this time this
one looks even farther north than the Wed/Thur one and the only
consequence will be temperatures cooling down a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 01/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds N-E 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB after 01Z. Locally
gusty NE winds downwind of terrain features overnight.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/18Z through Thursday 04/18Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. Brief MVFR possible in -SHRA/-SHSN after 18Z
Wednesday. Winds are SW 5-15 kts on Tuesday, turning W-NW on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry Tuesday, then slight
chance for rain and high-elevation snow showers moving in from the
north beginning Wednesday morning. Total accumulations are expected
to be light. Winds are southwest/west 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming
west/north on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Slight chance for rain and high-
elevation snow showers continue through Thursday morning, then dry
conditions return Friday and Saturday. Winds north/northeast 5-10
mph on Thursday, shifting west/northwest on Friday, then
southwest/west 5-15 mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff