378
FXUS65 KFGZ 131729
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1029 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue
through Friday. An approaching storm system will then bring cooler
temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for rain and mountain snow
over over the weekend. Continued cooler, and unsettled conditions
look to continue into the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Friday...Heights begin to gradually fall
over the next couple of days as high pressure shifts eastward
ahead of an approaching low off the Pacific. As such, temperatures
begin to cool each day along with increasing cloud cover. Dry
conditions look to prevail for the vast majority, however a few
isolated showers can not be totally ruled out over western Arizona
late Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...The low off the Pacific begins to break off
from the jet and become more a closed-low by Saturday. Southerly
flow begins to increase, leading to an increase in moisture
advection across the state with areas of precipitation developing in
the later half of the day as a result. As the low ejects off the
Pacific late Saturday and early Sunday, frontogenetic forcing should
lead to an area of moderate to heavy precipitation developing early
Sunday. This area of precipitation is then expected to move west to
east across the state as it continues through the day.

Overall QPF amounts have not change too much with recent runs,
outside of a slight uptick. Guidance seems to continue to favor
about 0.50-1.00 inches along and south of the higher terrain, with
some locally higher amounts in the typical upslope areas. North of
the Rim, QPF amounts look to taper off greatly, with generally
around to tenth to a quarter of an inch of liquid expected.

Guidance continues to favor a warmer solution with this storm. Thus,
much of the precipitation will fall as rain, at least through the
first part of the storm with 700 mb temperatures largely above 0C.
As cold air advection increases behind the front late in the day
Sunday, temperatures aloft begin to fall back to around -1C to -3C.
This would support snow levels falling from an initial 8000-8500
feet down to around 7000 feet. Thus, some light snowfall is possible
Sunday night, however any accumulations will be minimal. The best
shot at accumulating snow will be elevations at or above 8000
feet; namely the San Francisco Peaks, Kaibab Plateau, Chuska
Mountains, and the White Mountains.

Strong, gusty south/southwest winds are also expected as the storm
approaches. As of now, the strongest gusts are forecast to occur on
Sunday for much of the area. Gusts upwards of 30-40 mph look
probable, mainly along and downwind (north) of the Mogollon Rim.

Monday through Wednesday...Heights briefly rise on Monday, given a
brief reprieve a more active pattern. Although, it does appear that
some showers will likely linger through the day. A secondary cut-off
low looks to move into the southwest, which looks to keep cooler
temperatures and increased precipitation changes through at least
the start of the week. Guidance continues to waver on exactly how
much colder air is introduced with this system. Of the 00Z guidance,
the CMC favors a warmer (all rain) solution, while the ECMWF has a
deeper, colder low (better chances for snow) over northern Arizona.
The GFS seems to fall in the middle of the pack, but still favors
snow levels being on the higher side. As a result, uncertainty near
the end of the forecast period still remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 13/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...VFR
conditions, the only thing of note is isolated areas of haze/smoke
due to prescribed burns. Winds S-SW 5-10kts, gusting to 20kts
daytime. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 14/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z...Isolated showers
moving in from the west after 00Z Saturday, becoming more
widespread west to east as Saturday progresses and becoming
numerous Saturday night into Sunday morning. Mainly VFR conditions
expected but MVFR is possible with heavier showers. Winds S
5-10kts, gusts to 20kts Friday, S 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry with temperatures 10 degrees
above average today, around 5 degrees cooler for Friday. By Friday
evening, there is a low chance of rain west of I-17/US89. Afternoon
winds S-SW 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon RH
15-25% Thursday, increasing to 20-35% Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Colder and unsettled weather is expected.
The highest precipitation chances are from late Saturday through
Sunday, primarily in the form of rain with snow levels down near
8000 feet by Sunday. Precipitation chances decrease to 10-40%
Monday. Winds SE-S 10-20 mph on Saturday, SW 15-20 mph gusting up to
30 mph Sunday and SW 10-15 mph on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff