076
FXUS65 KFGZ 132114
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
214 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through
Friday. An approaching storm system will bring cooler temperatures,
gusty winds, and chances for rain and mountain snow over the
weekend. Cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions look to
continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure shifts to the east today as a low
pressure system approaches off the Pacific. The low becomes cut off
as it moves along the California coast, moving inland on Saturday,
then moves towards the east-northeast through Sunday. Brief ridging
occurs for Monday with another low digging down the west coast late
Monday into Tuesday and crossing through the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Taking a peek further out, the active pattern looks to
continue into the end of next week/weekend.

Through Friday...The highs influence across our region will begin to
wane through tomorrow as the low over the Pacific starts to
strengthen. While we will see cooling temperatures, they will remain
well above normal through Friday. Also expect a gradual increase in
cloud cover as the south to southwest flow deepens. Conditions will
remain mostly dry, especially through Friday morning, with some
isolated showers pushing in from the west towards Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday...The low off the Pacific closes off and starts
to move southward along the California coast. This will allow for
the southerly flow to increase and we will see good moisture
advection across the region. Precipitation will increase from west
to east through the day, with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
possible Saturday night into Sunday. Most ensemble members have been
consistent and keep the QPF amounts in the 0.50"-1.00" range, with
the highest amounts along and south of the higher terrain. Locally
higher amounts are also possible, especially if we see better
forcing and higher precipitation rates as the low moves through the
region. Areas to the north of the Mogollon Rim look to be drier as
the best precipitation remains across central portions of the state.
QPF amounts around 0.10"-0.30" seems reasonable in those areas.

Another aspect of this system is the warmer air being pulled into
the region. The latest model runs continue to trend warmer which
will mean less snow and more rain across the forecast area. Snow
levels will remain largely above 8000 feet through much of the
weekend, and that is where we expect any accumulations to take place.
As the low pulls off to the north and east, some cooler air will be
dragged down and into the area, likely late Sunday. One hitch in the
colder air arriving is the timing with any precipitation. There may
not be much precipitation occurring later Sunday but with the snow
levels dropping down to around 7000-7500 feet, we may see some light
snowfall, though accumulations will be pretty light (if any at all).

Yet another item to note is the tightening pressure gradient across
the state. Strong south to southwest winds are expected, mainly on
Sunday. Wind gusts to 40 mph are likely, especially along and north
of any terrain features. Temperatures will continue to drop off over
the weekend with near normal temperatures on Saturday and a sharp
drop to well below normal, where highs on Sunday will largely be 5-
15 degrees typical mid-November highs.

Monday through Thursday...Brief ridging arrives on Monday but it
doesn`t hang around for long nor does it have much influence over
our region. Expect Monday to be kind of showery as moisture lingers
over the area with cool temperatures across the region. Another low
pressure system will develop and move through the Great Basin and
into the Desert Southwest late Monday into Tuesday. This low will be
able to bring in additional moisture and cold air with the potential
for accumulating snows. Just where that will occur is still up in
the air as there are quite few differences between the models when
it comes to depth of the system and timing. So while it looks good
for a continued active and wet pattern, confidence is still on the
lower side when it comes to precipitation type (snow/rain). As this
second low exits the region, there is the potential for another
closed low to move through the region towards the end of the week.
Plenty of time to see how these next systems unfold so stay tuned
for updates!

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 13/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...VFR
conditions, the only thing of note is isolated areas of haze/smoke
due to prescribed burns. Winds S-SW 5-10kts, gusting to 20kts
daytime. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 14/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z...Isolated showers
moving in from the west after 00Z Saturday, becoming more
widespread west to east as Saturday progresses and becoming
numerous Saturday night into Sunday morning. Mainly VFR conditions
expected but MVFR is possible with heavier showers. Winds S
5-10kts, gusts to 20kts Friday, S 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Cooling trend begins with
temperatures 5 degrees cooler on Friday and another 5 degrees cooler
on Saturday. By Friday evening, there is a low chance of rain west
of I-17/US89 with showers becoming more widespread west to east
during the day on Saturday. Winds S-SW 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20
mph. Minimum afternoon RH 20-35% Friday, ranging from 25-30% eastern
Arizona to 45-50% western Arizona on Saturday as next storm system
moves in.

Sunday through Tuesday...Widespread precipitation expected on
Sunday, primarily in the form of rain with snow levels near 8,000
feet on Sunday, lowering to 7,500 ft Sunday night. Unsettled weather
continues for the first half of the week with rain and high
elevation snow chances continuing. Winds SW 15-20 mph gusting up to
30 mph Sunday, SW 10-15 mph on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff