290
FXUS65 KFGZ 082055
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
155 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through the rest of
the weekend and much of next week. A more unsettled pattern with
chances for precipitation may return by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high amplitude ridge will gradually meander eastward
over the next several days, likely peaking over our area Monday and
Tuesday. This ridge will send daytime temperatures to 5-10, possibly
even 15 degrees above normal for a few days. Deeper valley locations
may not see as big of a response, due to inversions under the ridge.

Toward the end of the week, the pattern begins to break down as a
mean trough develops over the eastern Pacific. This trough will send
s/wvs into the west from time to time, the first instance possibly
being as early as this coming Friday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the trough position after next weekend and into
next week (outside our forecast period), but models seem to be be
converging on the Friday/Saturday system.

As of now, the s/wv moves into a fairly warm air mass and most
precipitation should be rain. Later Friday night and Saturday, snow
levels may descend to around 8000 feet, but still enough uncertainty
that we cannot bank on this. For now, start thinking about unsettled
and early winter-like weather for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/18Z through Sunday 09/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected but localized areas of FU/HZ
possible from prescribed burns. Winds NE 10kts daytime, light and
variable most places overnight, but KSEZ could see NE 15kts, gusts
to 25kts due to amplified downsloping of NE winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions, no
precipitation expected, but localized areas of FU/HZ possible from
prescribed burns. Winds Sunday E-NE 10kts daytime, E-NE 10-15kts
overnight at KSEZ due to amplified downsloping. Light and variable
under 10kts for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures
at least 5-10 degrees above average. Winds N-NE 10 mph on Sunday and
then light and variable at 0-10 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH
between 15-25% Sunday, 10-20% Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions continue with daytime
temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. Winds light at 10 mph or
less and mainly terrain driven Tuesday, becoming SW at 5-15 mph on
Wednesday and S-SW at 10-15 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 10-20% on
Tuesday and Wednesday, 15-25% Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff