930
FXUS65 KFGZ 181043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and wet conditions will dominate the next few
days, with more unsettled weather possible over the weekend. Rain
looks to be the main precipitation type, but high elevation snow
will sneak in by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The southwest flow aloft from the low pressure
system centered across the central California Coast is ushering in
enough moisture to promote isolated to scattered showers
overnight tonight. Most of the activity is concentrated along and
south of I-40 as of 1 AM MST, but we`ll continue to see increased
coverage in showers/thunderstorms through the next 24 to 48 hours
as this disturbance progresses towards Arizona. At least through
Wednesday morning, greatest chances for precipitation will be
along and west of a Page-Flagstaff-Show Low line. WPC has
emphasized parts of Yavapai County now through 5 AM MST Wednesday
by drawing a slight risk for excessive rainfall. This location of
our CWA is forecast to receive rainfall amounts between 0.5-2"
over the next 24 hours. Localized higher amounts are also not out
of the question with training storms and orographic influences. We
also can`t completely rule out a few embedded thunderstorms with
decent instability and shear across Yavapai County and northern
Gila County this afternoon.

You`re probably more curious about the potential for snowfall
over the next few days, but I wouldn`t be super excited if I were
you. This system continues to trend warmer as it moves towards
Arizona, leaving measurable snow primarily for areas above 7000`
starting on Wednesday. Even so, our forecast suggests minimal
impacts with snow amounts between 0.5-1.5" for more populated
areas (Flagstaff, Williams, Happy Jack, Forest Lakes) between
Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. For less populated areas
above 8000` (Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks, and the White
Mountains), 3 to 10" is possible now through Thursday afternoon.

This low pressure will exit the region by Friday, but model
guidance suggests another closed low sliding in quickly behind.
However, guidance suggests this system taking a much more
southern track along the AZ/Mexico border. As a result,
precipitation chances are minimal through the weekend but daytime
highs will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 18/12Z through Wednesday 19/12Z...For locations
along, west and northwest of the I-17 corridor, areas of -SHRA/SHRA
continuing through the period. Upslope locations and areas where
showers are occurring will easily produce MVFR/IFR conditions.
Isolated thunderstorm will be possible. For locations generally
east of the I-17 corridor and northeast of the central Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains, expect VFR conditions through 18Z with
local -SHRA and MVFR conditions developing thereafter. Surface
winds south at 15-25kts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 19/12Z through Friday 21/12Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
as well as -SHSN/SHSN (above 7500 feet) through most of the period.
Upslope locations and areas where showers are occurring will produce
MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface winds generally light and variable at
less than 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Scattered to widespread
showers expected today through Wednesday with the snow level
lowering to 7500 feet by Wednesday morning. Winds south at 10-15 mph
with gusts as high as 25 mph both days.

Thursday through Saturday...The chance for showers continues, mainly
in the form of snow above 6500-7500 feet. Winds southwest at 5-15
mph Thursday, becoming east to southeast at 5-10 mph on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff