Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
862 FXUS64 KFWD 100544 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry cold front will move through the region on Wednesday bringing gusty north winds. Above normal temperatures will return for Thursday and Friday. - A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - Rain chances will tick upward early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Breezy southerly winds will persist through the overnight hours thanks to an area of low pressure over West Texas. A strong shortwave trough will swing through the Upper Midwest through Wednesday afternoon and allow this surface low to move eastward dragging a cold front through the region during the morning hours. This front will come through dry, but winds will shift around to the north and become breezy through the afternoon. Intermittent high cloud cover will also persist through the day before thinning out this evening. While north winds will be breezy, the bulk of the colder air will remain over the eastern half of the CONUS keeping temperatures near or slightly above normal this afternoon. Highs should top out in the low to mid 60s. Diminishing winds will be short lived but sufficient for temperatures to fall back into the low 30s by early Thursday morning. Southerly flow returns Thursday morning and we should see highs climb into the low 70s west of I-35 under mostly sunny skies. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A progressive upper pattern will persist through the weekend and into early next week sending a couple more cold fronts southward through the Plains. The first will arrive on Friday and should again result in mainly a wind shift and slightly cooler air north of I-20. Highs Friday afternoon may top out in the mid 70s across our southern counties. Low level moisture will begin to encroach on the area above the shallow colder air by Saturday resulting in increasingly cloudy skies headed into Saturday night. A much stronger cold front will spill southward during this time and move through the area early Sunday. Highs on Sunday will likely struggle to make it out of the upper 40s and low 50s with brisk north winds making it feel much colder. An upstream disturbance will spread out of the southwest U.S. late Sunday and should help reinforce modest isentropic ascent through Monday. This should result in continued cool and cloudy conditions and perhaps some areas of light rain developing. At this time, we`ll keep PoPs <20% as there is some uncertainty in timing and strength of this system, but the pattern does look like it will become slightly more active across the Southern Plains through the middle of next week with rain chances ticking upward through the period. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR prevails across the region this evening with BKN/OVC250 cigs across much of the Southern Plains. South winds 10 to 15 kt will persist tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will approach the D10 airspace prior to sunrise with winds shifting to the northwest 5-10 kt around 12Z. Strong northerly wind above the surface may result in some LLWS for a few hours until deeper mixing can commence. We`ll maintain WS015/01045KT from 12-15Z with surface winds increasing to 15G25KT by 15Z at all the major airports. Intermittent high clouds will continue through the day with VFR prevailing. Winds are expected to diminish after sunset with a return to southerly flow late Wednesday night. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 44 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 64 43 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 58 40 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 65 41 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 64 42 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 64 45 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 62 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 44 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 66 43 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 42 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$