Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
136 FXUS64 KFWD 181159 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 559 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures are expected once again today. - Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Another day with record-breaking temperatures is expected today across North and Central Texas. The combination of southwesterly wind and a weak southward progressing front will make for efficient compressional warming. This will drive temperatures into the upper 80s, with even a few 90s across North Texas. The record high at DFW today stands at 83 degrees while Waco`s record high stands at 84 degrees. Given today`s temperatures will be warmer in North Texas, the probability of breaking a record at DFW Airport is almost certain. For Waco, slightly more cloud cover and an increased distance from the weak front along the Red River will may keep temperatures at or just shy of record territory. If the front pushes a little farther south than currently expected, the potential for breaking Waco`s high will increase. Regardless of whether records are broken or not, today can certainly be considered a "hot" day by mid-November standards. Precipitation is not expected today, although a weather system will be drawing closer to our region, bringing wholesale changes to our sensible weather starting tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Our long advertised midweek weather system is now churning atop San Francisco at this time. By tomorrow morning, the center of the system will dig southward and be atop San Diego. As the area of low pressure digs south, surface high pressure will strengthen across the northern Gulf and into the lower Mississippi River Valley. These opposing systems will induce a northward migration of low-level moisture Wednesday morning. With strong warm air advection in place, low and mid-level cloud cover will be on the rise with drizzle or even a few sprinkles possible during the morning hours. Rain chances will gradually increase from west to east through the late morning and into the afternoon hours as a leading shortwave makes its way out of the Sonora Desert and into West Texas. Precipitation through much of day will be in the form of light rain showers. By late in the afternoon, rapid height falls will move in from the west as the shortwave continues its eastward shift. With a capping inversion in place much of the day, the approaching system may help erode/lift the inversion. This would allow for a few robust storms to develop west of I-35, some of which could be strong to severe. If a severe storm is able to develop, the main concern would be large hail. The low-level wind field will be strengthening after sunset, however, surface based convection will be harder to come by given near-surface diurnal cooling. If the wind fields strengthens earlier than currently expected, there may be a slight increase in the potential for a brief spin-up west of I-35 with any supercell that develops. We`ll continue to monitor these fine details over the next day. As the main area of low pressure continues to move closer to North and Central Texas, forcing for ascent will only increase and lead to additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Although the bulk of the ascent is now anticipated to be across Oklahoma and Kansas, ample amounts of moisture will lead to efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms. The latest guidance suggest much much of the region will likely experience around 1-2" of rain. Some higher totals are possible, however, only about 10% of the the region will experience totals of 3-4". In addition to the bursts of heavy rainfall, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out as storm clusters move from west to east. Instability remains marginal, however, deep layer shear will be strong which could support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds. Rain chances will linger through Thursday night as the parent shortwave slowly moves moves northeast, away from North and Central Texas. A cold front will move through Friday morning, shunting moisture south and east of our region. This will lead to mostly dry conditions on Friday and much of Saturday. As we head into Sunday, another robust trough will take a similar path compared to our midweek system, leading to a regeneration of precipitation across the Southern Plains. The progression of the late week system will impact the timing of Sunday`s rain chances and how long the rain will stick around for. For now, rain chances will be advertised through early Tuesday (11/25) as model consensus suggest a slow eastward progression of the system. As we head into some of the busiest travel days of the year, make sure to check back the to get the most up-to-date weather information. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 The once continuous shroud of MVFR cigs has broken up into two main areas, one just south of Waco and another thin line impacting parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. With such cloud configuration, timing and placement of MVFR through the rest of the morning has become less certain. Nonetheless, there will still be a potential for MVFR at all TAF sites, with the exception of KAFW where MVFR probs remain below 20%. The MVFR ceilings will dissipate later this morning as low-level mixing commences. This will leave VFR skies with passing high clouds. Surface winds will be out of the south. This afternoon`s wind speeds will remain between 9-12 kts, diminishing closer to 6 kts by 06z Wednesday. Another round of MVFR will develop tonight. The highest confidence in impacts remains across Central Texas. The MVFR cloud deck will shift northward through the morning before stalling somewhere along the I-20 corridor. For now, MVFR was introduced to the extended portion of the KDFW TAF. If low ceiling probs increase later today, TAFs will reflect the changing flight categories. Regarding the previously mentioned potential for northerly winds at some North Texas TAF sites -- about 70% of the guidance is holding steadfast with keeping southerly winds in place. The other 30% show a brief window of northerly winds around 00z, lasting for 2-3 hours. For the TAF, we`ll maintain southerly winds and continue to monitor the progression of the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 65 83 66 / 0 0 20 70 Waco 83 65 82 68 / 10 10 20 50 Paris 84 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 60 Denton 87 60 82 63 / 0 0 20 70 McKinney 86 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 70 Dallas 87 67 84 67 / 0 0 20 70 Terrell 85 64 83 66 / 10 0 20 60 Corsicana 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 20 50 Temple 84 64 83 66 / 10 10 30 40 Mineral Wells 90 61 85 63 / 0 10 30 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez