Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
999 FXUS64 KFWD 040035 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another strong cold front arrives tonight with tomorrow being cool and cloudy. - Rain chances return tonight and tomorrow, mainly across East Texas and the Brazos Valley. Occasional light rain, drizzle and patchy fog is expected further west and north over Central and North Texas. - Near-normal temperatures and mostly sunny conditions return Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Low clouds and patchy fog continues to spread northwestward across North and Central Texas this evening per surface obs and satellite imagery. In addition, radar show drizzle and light rain has developed across Central Texas, and this activity is expected to continue through the night while expanding in coverage to the northwest. Made some adjustments to precip chances and fog based on latest trends, and also added mention of drizzle to the northwest of the main area of pops overnight. Still appears our northwest counties will stay too warm for any wintry precip overnight, with the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma seeing the bulk of the ice/sleet/snow once again. Shamburger && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The region will be undergoing a mini form of temperature whiplash over the next few days. Yesterday was cool and sunny, today will be mild and mostly sunny (for the western 2/3rds), and tomorrow will be cool and dreary. So, what`s causing this...a low pressure system is currently analyzed near Wichita Falls with a weak cold front extending southwest into the Caprock. This surface low will gradually fill over this afternoon and evening, slowly moving east into/near the I-35 corridor early tonight. As briefly alluded to above, widespread stratus is forecast to remain in place across East Texas and the Brazos Valley today, keeping those areas cool. A much stronger high pressure center and cooler airmass (i.e. strong cold front) will move into the area overnight that will eventually overtake/wash out the surface low. A shallow layer of cooler/drier air will then move into our area from northwest to southeast late tonight and early tomorrow morning. There should be a narrow corridor between the stratus to the east and the drier air to the west where "edge of the stratus" fog is forecast to develop tonight into tomorrow morning. The fog should be short- lived and transitory (generally moving from NE to SW), but may be dense at times. We`re not confident enough the areal coverage or longevity of the fog to issue a dense fog advisory at this time, but know it may be needed for the morning commute for parts of North and Central Texas tomorrow morning. Low-level isentropic ascent overtop of the cool airmass will ramp up (yes, pun intended) this evening and tomorrow morning, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. We`re forecasting a broad area of light stratiform precip to develop this evening over eastern Central Texas, becoming more widespread tonight across all of East Texas. Instability is meager, but a few elevated updrafts may result in isolated showers or perhaps a rumble or two of thunder tonight/early tomorrow morning across the southeast. The far southern extent of a quick-moving shortwave trough is forecast to brush across our area tomorrow, resulting in another round of spotty light stratiform precip over the course of the day. By the end of the day tomorrow, measurable precip is most likely across the far southeast and northwest portions of our forecast area, with most of the area between these two (including the Metroplex) receiving very little, if any, measurable precip. All precip- inducing ascent should move east by tomorrow evening, with no mentionable precip chances in the forecast through early next week. Previous forecasts had mention of light freezing rain/drizzle or sleet across the far northwest portions of our area late tonight and tomorrow morning. The latest data has temperatures remaining above freezing the entire time precipitation is expected, so we are only forecasting a cold rain at this time. There is still an outside chance that the actual temperature comes in cooler and falls to 31-32 degrees for some of the extreme northwest parts of our area (roughly northwest of Breckenridge -> Jacksboro -> Gainesville) while precip is falling. Only 5-10% of the data has this scenario unfolding. If this were to happen, freezing drizzle is the most likely precip-type with little to no ice accumulation. At worst, there may be a few slick spots on bridges and elevated surfaces. Outside of precipitation, tomorrow is forecast to be cool, cloudy, and breezy. Daytime highs are only forecast to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s, with wind chill values in the upper 20s to low 30s. Welcome to winter! Bonnette && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Tomorrow`s system will move east overnight, opening the door for quieter weather in its wake. We`re forecasting another widespread freeze for those north and west of the Metroplex, but most within and southeast of the Metroplex should stay above freezing tomorrow night. Despite no sensible weather in the forecast, our area will remain under southwest flow aloft with a few low pressure systems/wind shifts/cold fronts moving through the area this weekend and early next week. By-in-large, we should be too dry to receive measurable rainfall with any of these system, but do expect the temperatures to seesaw up and down for a few days. It does not look like any high-impact weather systems are forecast through next Tuesday, so keep up with the latest forecast for specifics at weather.gov/fwd. Bonnette && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs/vis continue to advance northwest across D10 this hour and have passed DAL and ACT so far. Moved up timing of MVFR/IFR/LIFR impacts at all airports based on the faster speed of the incoming low clouds and fog. VCSH/DZ have already broken out around ACT this hour, and have moved up timing for these impacts as well at all airports as well as added mention of DZ to D10 TAFs overnight. Conditions are anticipated to improve to MVFR at all airports by midday Thursday with VFR conditions returning Thursday evening as clouds clear out. Current southeast winds at airports will back to northwest/north this evening with a fropa, and continue northerly through tomorrow with speeds up to 15 knots. Shamburger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 43 34 53 / 10 30 10 0 Waco 44 47 37 53 / 30 50 10 10 Paris 38 42 32 50 / 10 30 10 0 Denton 35 42 28 53 / 10 30 0 0 McKinney 38 42 32 51 / 10 30 10 0 Dallas 42 44 35 54 / 10 40 10 0 Terrell 42 46 34 52 / 20 50 10 10 Corsicana 44 47 38 53 / 50 60 10 10 Temple 45 47 37 53 / 30 50 10 10 Mineral Wells 37 43 29 55 / 10 40 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Shamburger