372
FXUS63 KGID 171742
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1142 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/Drizzle possible for areas mainly along and northeast of
  the Tri-Cities today/night.

- Cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s, but climb back
  above normal Wednesday and Thursday (highs 50s/60s).

- More widespread rain chances (20-50%) arrive Thursday-Friday,
  with the greatest accumulations across north central Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Update...

Temperatures this morning are sitting in the 30s and 40s, with
southeasterly winds around 10mph. Aloft, a shortwave trough and
associated surface low are beginning to move into the Plains.
As the low tracks into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska this
morning, it will push a warm front into the area. Rain/drizzle
is expected to develop along the front during the mid-late
morning hours, mainly for areas northeast of the Tri-Cities.
Most of the forecast area will be south of the front during the
day and remain dry. Northeast of the Tri-Cities, light
rain/drizzle will likely continue off and on throughout the day.
High temperatures today will range from the low 50s in areas
under persistent low stratus/drizzle (north) to the upper 60s
in north central Kansas where greater sunshine can be achieved.
Southeasterly winds gusting 20-25mph are expected this morning,
decreasing from west to east during the afternoon. Rain chances
north of I-80 come to an end tonight as the low moves into the
Midwest. One thing to watch for tonight is the potential for fog
development. Models remain split on how widespread fog will be,
but indicate the potential for areas of dense fog.

Widespread low stratus lingers throughout much of the day on
Tuesday. This will result in a cooler day across the area, coldest
north of I-80. Have lowered Tuesday`s highs towards the NBM25th
percentile given the increased support for low stratus and the lack
of daytime heating expected (highs mid 40s to upper 50s). Otherwise
the forecast remains largely on track through the weekend. The next
system moves into the area on Thursday/Friday, bringing another
chance (20-50%) for rain. The highest chances, and heaviest rain
looks to fall across north central Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF
ensembles have a 40-80% chance for 0.5" or more of rain across
northern Kansas. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tonight through Wednesday...

A low currently situated across Nevada today will soon be on track to
swing over into Nebraska around Monday evening. The approach of this
wave will stir up some banded precipitation primarily across South
Dakota, Southern Minnesota and Iowa to name a few places. Impacts to
the local area precipitation wise should be more on the minimal side
of things, although a few showers across Central Nebraska Monday
evening/night remain as a possibility (20-40% chances).

The latest short-term and high-res guidance (primarily the HRRR and
RAP models) continues to highlight some showers becoming wrapped
around the surface low Monday evening. These showers, would pass
from west to east across a few portions of Central Nebraska as the
surface low pulls away Monday evening. The latest 18z model guidance
places a cluster of these showers near and just north of the I-80
corridor between primarily 6PM and midnight. Most of these showers
should be brief, depositing at most a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of moisture. Areas closer to and south of the state line will
likely be missed altogether (<15% chance).

Besides the limited precipitation chances Monday evening, southerly
winds between 10-20MPH on Monday will lighten some overnight,
swinging clockwise and around Tuesday as the low moves east and
away. Light winds will finally settle back to a more consistent
southeasterly direction for Wednesday.

Highs for Monday will offer a wide spread from north to south with
temperatures up to the mid 50s to low 60s north of I-80 and up to
the mid 60s to low 70s south of the state line. Highs for Tuesday
will range the 50s to low 60s, warming back a few degrees for
Wednesday (upper 50s to mid 60s).


Thursday and Beyond...

Our main focus in the long range forecast revolves around how a
shortwave trough will impact the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The 12z
GFS/ECMWF models runs both project this disturbance to deepen a
surface low across the TX/OK/KS/CO borders on Thursday. This mid-
latitude cyclone will then be expected to eject northeastward across
Central and Eastern Kansas during the day Friday, following along
with the upper jet-level flow.

The outskirts of this potential system`s precipitation bands could
arrive up into North Central Nebraska as early as Thursday, though
the latest guidance has been several hours slower with the
precipitation onset timing. We will be curious to see if this
slowing trend continues. As our forecast currently stands, the
overall best chances for precipitation lie Thursday night into
Friday (25-45% chances) with the best chances concentrated towards
the south.

Given the current projected track of the system, a large
north to south precipitation gradient is due to set up across our
area where places in the north (Central Nebraska) could easily fall
shy of the forecast with a few places towards the south (North
Central Kansas) potentially overachieving our early forecasted
precipitation amounts (currently 0.1-0.5"). Note that given this
system being at least four days out, confidence can easily shift in
either direction (the most recent shift has been a slight decrease
in intensity). Given potentially near freezing temperatures late
Thursday night, a few light snow could be mixed into this system on
its furthest northern side, especially if timing lags into Friday
night (cooler temperatures overnight). No snow accumulation is
expected at this time.

Beyond the precipitation chances, Temperates near the end of the week
will dip a few degrees, mainly Friday as highs transition from the
mid 50s to low 60s Thursday to the mid 40s to low 50s Friday.
Overcast skies with northerly winds advecting in cooler air from the
north would be the main contributers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Conditions: Current (17z) ob conditions reflect a swath of low-
level stratus across the area with ceilings as low as 1,500ft
for KGRI and 900ft for KEAR. This status will eventually drift
north and temporarily away from the terminals between 1-6z
(could lift earlier and return back later for KEAR). VFR
conditions will likely only be short lived (only 5-9 hours)
before reduced visibilities (as low as 2-4 miles) and/or low-end
MVFR or IFR ceilings return overnight and stick through a
majority of Tuesday morning.

Precipitation: Light rain is possible between 6-10z, though
the latest model guidance has been pulling away confidence for
any measurable precipitation.

Wind: Winds out of the southeast this afternoon (gusting as
high as 25kts) will soon lighten (after 21z), becoming variable
through much of the night. Winds will pick back up Tuesday
morning out of the north at around 10-15kts.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump