060
FXUS63 KGLD 101735
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm through most of the weekend, with high temperatures
  generally in the 80s and maybe some low 90s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Current observations show cloud cover streaming in from the west as
moisture continues to be pushed into the Southwestern United States.
The cloud cover remains forecast to continue and increase through
the remainder of the day. This has kept temperatures from heating up
as much as they could have, with morning temperatures generally in
the 60s. Temperatures should peak in the 70s for most of the area,
with maybe some 80s in Northwest Kansas where the cloud cover is
more spotty around the noon hour. Winds are slowly increasing to
around 10-15 mph as the surface low pressure builds along the Front
Range.

This evening and tonight, cloudy skies with a few showers are
forecast for the area as moisture continues to stream in from the
west. Chances for showers remain around 20-30% and favoring Eastern
Colorado and the Tri-State border area. These areas are close to
where some weak surface convergence from the low will be, along with
where the better moisture content should be concentrated. The reason
the chances remain low is that the low levels are forecast to remain
fairly dry. Most of the moisture streaming in is in the mid to high
level. So even if showers and storms try to form where there is
moisture, the precipitation may not be able to make it to the
ground. Winds should remain around 10-15 mph as the pressure
gradient remains a little tight with the surface low forecast to
remain along the Front Range. With the winds providing mixing and
the clouds insulating aloft, temperatures will likely stay in the
60s tonight. These factors will also limit the potential for fog,
though southeasterly winds may be able to produce a few patches of
fog where any lower level moisture lingers.

Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to begin pushing east through
the Western United States. As it does so, it should deepen the
surface low and begin to push it east off the Front Range. With the
low deepening, winds are forecast to increase with speeds around 15-
30 mph. Matching upper troughs at 850mb and 700mb are also forecast
to strengthen the flow to around 35 kts, which could allow for gusts
of 35-45 mph. With the trough forecast to be fairly broad, there
doesn`t appear to be much stronger winds in the air column, which
limits the potential for wind gusts above 50 mph. There`s also a
chance that the cloud cover may reinforce and stay in place
tomorrow, limiting how high we mix out. The best chances for clearer
skies and stronger winds are in Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska, as the surface low may move over Eastern Colorado by the
afternoon hours. Eastern Colorado is forecast to highs in the low
80s, while the chances for more sunshine have the rest of the area
forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s. The dry air near the
surface is likely to prevent any precipitation during the day
tomorrow except for maybe a few showers.

Late Saturday afternoon and through the night, the winds are
forecast to lower a bit as the surface low moves over more of the
area. As the low moves into more of the area and the upper trough
gets closer, they are forecast to push a better band of mid-level
moisture into the area. This could allow for showers and a few
storms to form in Eastern Colorado and push east. The chance of
these showers forming and/or lasting is around and below 25% due to
the dry levels that are forecast around the saturated layer. As
such, minimal accumulations and impacts are expected at this time.
Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s and 70s for most of
the area with the cloud cover, while western portions of the area
may drop into the 50s if the low shifts far enough east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

With the passage of a cold front likely to be during the
afternoon/evening on Sunday, temperatures should warm into the
80s and maybe the low 90s Sunday. With the system moving
through, winds should be stronger around 15-30 mph with gusts up
to 45 mph. While breezy, it is unlikely that these winds would
produce much blowing dust or any associated hazards. From the
precipitation side of things, there will be some chances with
the low and front in the area. However, the moisture content at
any particular level doesn`t look to be enough for widespread
precipitation at this time. So for now, a few showers and storms
with low impacts remains the forecast.

Towards the beginning of the week, we start under upper level
troughing. In the wake of the front, this should allow for
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. We may have a few chance for
precipitation with moisture still forecast to try and stream in from
the southwest. As the week progresses, a ridge is forecast to
redevelop over the Southern United States. As it does so, it will
allow temperatures to warm closer to the 70s and 80s while also
lowering our chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. cloud cover about 12000ft is forecast for most of the
period with moisture streaming over the Rockies. There could be
a few showers tonight, but most of them should stay west of the
terminals. The fog potential tonight is currently below 10% as
cloud cover and winds remaining around 10 kts should keep
dewpoint depressions high enough that fog or low cloud ceilings
shouldn`t be able to form. Tomorrow, a surface low pressure
system is forecast to deepen along the Front Range, increasing
winds speeds to around 20kts with gusts potentially up to
35-40kts from the south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK