231
FXUS63 KGLD 220827
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to dense fog over the eastern CWA is occurring and
  should remain above freezing.

- A 50-60% chance of freezing fog across southwestern portions
  of the area early this morning, leading to slick elevated
  surfaces, such as bridges.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast starting Sunday
  last into early Monday morning.

- Colder, but near normal temperatures, expected around
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 116 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Early this morning, some patchy to dense fog is forming across the
eastern portions of the area. Temperatures in this area look to
remain above freezing, so freezing fog is unlikely in the eastern
CWA. We are still keeping a close eye on the potential for dense fog
formation over the southwestern CWA. There is about 50-60%
confidence this will form and would be below freezing if it does
occur. Be extra cautious in fog this morning, especially on bridges
and elevated surfaces, as they may become slick.

Today, we will have a 500 mb ridge moving over the region, keeping
the sky clear and allowing us to warm to near 60. We could see some
northwesterly gusts up near 20 kts midday, but otherwise, today will
be pleasant.

Tonight, lows will cool to around freezing as we reach around 100%
saturation again. Due to light south-southwesterly winds, widespread
fog is not expected, but patchy fog is possible. If winds become
calm for at least an hour, or moisture advection occurs overnight,
fog would would have a greater chance off occurring. Current
probability of fog formation Sunday morning is about 20%.

Starting around 18Z Sunday, our next low will start moving into the
region. There is a 15% chance precipitation starts as early as 15Z
in the far southwestern CWA, which could be a brief rain/snow mix,
but there`s 85% confidence rain will be the only precipitation type.
The rest of the event, dew points and temperatures are forecast to
be warm enough for only rain to fall. Between 18-0Z, the south-
southwestern half of the CWA will see the bulk of the precipitation
as it slowly moves to the north-northeast. Starting around 6Z, the
southern CWA will see precipitation ending while the northern CWA
will see rain persist until around 10-12Z Monday morning.

Compared to the recent precipitation event, this will be a lot
weaker of a system. QPF values range from a couple hundredths to a
quarter inch. This system will more of a line of showers, with a 20%
chance of thunder in the southern CWA. No severe weather is expected
as CAPE will only be a few Joules and hodographs are not organized.

Highs Sunday will be propped up a bit by the moist airmass over the
area, likely warming into the 50s. Lows overnight Sunday will be the
coolest in the west-southwestern CWA, where the moisture clears out
first. Temperatures look to range between just above freezing to the
low 40s over the eastern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Main focus for this part of the forecast is the upper level short
wave trough moving across the Plains, and the ridge moving in later
in the week.

Models have the precipitation ending by Monday morning over the
forecast area.  Behind this trough a second one is moving in from
the west.  Models look to have slightly shifted the second trough of
the period to the south. Regardless the precipitation associated
with this short wave trough will be over the Northern Plains.  Based
on model ensemble spread for wind gusts, the peak may approach 40
MPH Tuesday afternoon. This seems reasonable given the
strongest low level winds will be north of the forecast area.

A ridge moves in behind the second short wave trough.  This will
allow for warmer weather for Thanksgiving.  Temperatures for the
week are a few degrees warmer than what was seen yesterday.  This
seems to be due to the ridge slightly intensifying, which makes
sense with the short wave trough deepening ahead of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to dominate this TAF period. There
is a 50% chance KMCK has fog and ceilings that briefly take them
to MVFR and a 10% chance of IFR before 13Z. Timing is so
uncertain that this is not directly mentioned in the TAFs via
TEMPO or From group. KGLD is forecast to remain VFR the entire
time.

Winds will become northwesterly later in the morning before
becoming light and variable around sunset. This could lead to a
fog threat Sunday morning after 6Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA