781
FXUS63 KGLD 282121
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may develop over much of the area this evening into
  tonight.

- Freezing drizzle possible in southwest Nebraska this evening
  into tonight.

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, strongest (30-40
  G 50-60 mph) between sunrise and noon.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overview: A broad lee cyclone developing in southeast CO (this
aft-eve) will slowly track eastward into west/southwest KS
(tonight).. as an upper level wave (located invof the northern
Rockies at 18 UTC) digs SSE to/near the OK Panhandle. The
aforementioned upper wave and associated lee cyclone will then
rapidly progress east across the Central/Southern Plains during
the day on Saturday.

Dense Fog Potential (Tonight): S-SE low-level flow and
pervasive low stratus over the region this afternoon may set the
stage for the development of dense fog this evening (after
sunset) into tonight across the majority of the area.. as the
broad lee cyclone progresses eastward from CO into KS and
surface winds become light/variable.

Freezing Drizzle Potential (Tonight): Dense fog could be
accompanied by FZDZ in southwest Nebraska late this evening and
overnight.. where/when light E to ENE winds (on the northern
fringe of the broad lee cyclone progressing eastward from CO
into KS) could advect the 32F surface wetbulb isotherm southward
(from central Nebraska) to the KS-NE border. Low confidence
with regard to whether or not surface wetbulb temperatures would
be below 32F in the presence of light precipitation (before
thermal profiles become supportive of snow).

Measurable Precipitation: The progressive nature of the cyclone
and the Tri-State area`s position relative to the upper wave
and cyclone suggests a low overall potential for measurable
precip in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Guidance
continues to indicate 2 distinct periods in which light
precipitation may develop: [1] prior to the cold frontal passage
in the Tri-State border area and southwest NE this evening
(~00-06Z Sat) -- as the upper level wave digs SSE through WY-CO
and [2] coincident with, or shortly after, the cold frontal
passage shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z Sat) in southwest NE and
adjacent KS border counties -- during a fleeting period of
strong low-level frontogenesis.

Strong Winds: Strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises
in the wake of the Arctic front will at least partially coincide
with diurnal heating.. between sunrise and noon Saturday.. when
forecast soundings indicate ~35-45 knot northerly low-level
flow will be present within a shallow (surface to 3,000 ft AGL)
mixed layer. If this is the case, one would expect sustained
winds ~30-40 mph with gusts in the ~50-60 mph range. Guidance
indicates that low-level northerly flow will weaken throughout
the afternoon and rapidly diminish after sunset Saturday
evening.

Temperatures: Weak low-level flow / horizontal thermal
advection and pervasive stratus will foster near steady, above-
freezing temperatures across the majority of the area this
evening and very early Saturday morning.. until the cold frontal
passage ~09 UTC, or a few hours before sunrise (north) to ~14
UTC, or shortly after sunrise (south).. at which point temps
will quickly fall into the upper teens (north) to mid-upper 20`s
(south). With cold advection persisting throughout the day,
temps will struggle to exceed the upper 20`s (north) to
freezing/32F (south) during the afternoon. With weakening winds
and mostly clear skies after sunset.. temps will plummet into
the single digits (north) to lower teens (south) Sat night..
with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F around sunrise Sun
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. Low confidence persists with regard to
precipitation coverage, location and specific amounts. Broadly
speaking, the progressive nature of the system suggests
relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accumulation)..
and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests light winds.

Tue-Fri: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating
trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains
downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another
cold frontal passage mid-week.. followed by a moderating trend
late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 942 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

GLD: Ongoing IFR ceilings (as of 16Z) are expected to lift to
MVFR during the late morning to early afternoon. While further
improvement to VFR is possible for a short period late this
afternoon, conditions will rapidly deteriorate to LIFR or VLIFR
around, or shortly after, sunset (~00Z) and persist overnight..
until a strong cold frontal passage occurs shortly before
sunrise (~10-12Z Sat). Rapid improvement to MVFR is expected
after the frontal passage, followed by further improvement to
VFR several hours later.. near the end of the 18Z TAF period. S
to SSE winds at 10-15 knots will weaken and become variable
around sunset and remain light overnight.. as a broad low
pressure system in CO tracks eastward over western KS. Winds
will abruptly shift to the NNW-N and increase to 25-35 knots
(sustained) with gusts to 45 knots in assoc/w an Arctic cold
frontal passage shortly before sunrise (~10-12Z Sat). Strong
northerly winds will persist through the remainder of the
morning / 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Guidance suggests that borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings
(3000-3500 ft AGL at 16Z) will gradually lower to ~2000 ft AGL
this afternoon. Conditions will further deteriorate to LIFR or
VLIFR after sunset (00-03Z Sat) and persist overnight.. until a
strong cold frontal passage occurs around, or shortly before,
sunrise (~11-13Z Sat). Rapid improvement to MVFR is expected
after the frontal passage, followed by further improvement to
VFR several hours later.. near the end of the 18Z TAF period. SE
to ESE winds at 13-18 knots will gradually back to the E and
decrease to 7-12 knots late this aft-eve.. as a broad low
pressure system in CO tracks eastward over western KS. Winds
will abruptly shift to the NNW-N and increase to 25-35 knots
(sustained) with gusts ~40-45 knots in assoc/w an Arctic cold
frontal passage around, or shortly before, sunrise (~11-13Z
Sat). Strong northerly winds will persist through the remainder
of the morning / 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent