314
FXUS63 KGLD 091314
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
714 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10am MT/ 11am CT
  for most of the area as dense fog has been observed.

- Warm through most of the weekend, with high temperatures
  generally in the 80s.

- Potential for breezy winds and low chances of precipitation
  over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Observational trends at 0730 UTC.. and current/recent runs of
high-resolution guidance.. suggest that dense fog may develop in
vicinity of the Tri-State border this morning. The AWOS in Yuma
(K2V6) reported 1/4 mile visibility in association with dense
fog at 1254 am MDT (0654 UTC). Recent observations at Akron and
Holyoke (CO) also indicate the presence of fog, though..
visibilities at those sites have (thus far) remained at or above
1.75 miles.

Based on observational trends since 2 AM MDT, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for Yuma and Kit Carson counties in
CO.. Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman and Thomas counties in KS.. and
Dundy and Hitchcock counties in NE, valid until 16 UTC this
morning.

Otherwise, no significant change(s) to prior forecast reasoning
and expectations through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Current observations show a large ridge over much of the Plains
and Continental United States. While that would generally
promote warmer temperatures, cloud cover has remained in place
over most of the area. The clouds are beginning to break in the
west where a surface low is pushing in and bringing drier air
into the area. As the cloud cover clears, temperatures have been
warming into the 70s. With this, counties along the Colorado
border should reach the 70s while the rest of the area remains
in the 60s. Winds have been in the 10- 20 mph range with gusts
around 25-35 mph as the advancing low has tightened the pressure
gradient over the area.

Tonight, the surface low is forecast to broaden and push more
into the area. As it does so, winds should lower a bit closer to
10 mph, while still remaining from the south. The moisture and
cloud cover should also continue to push off to the east,
allowing for more clear skies in the area. That being said, most
of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska could see cloud
cover move back in and continue for most of the night as
moisture tries to wrap into the area. This could lead to some
patches of fog forming where the moisture curls in, mainly north
of I-70. Temperatures should reach the upper 40s where the
skies are clearer and winds are weaker in Eastern Colorado. The
rest of the area may remain in the 50s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridging is forecast to remain over the
area. The main difference is that the surface low is forecast to
move over the area. This should lighten the winds below 10 mph
and have them shift to be more from the west. The low should
also continue to push moisture east, though locales east of
Highway 83 may have cloud cover for most of the daytime hours.
Temperatures should warm into the 80s, with maybe upper 70s for
the aforementioned cloud cover area.

Tomorrow night, the surface low is forecast to remain over the
area, keeping winds around or below 10 mph while varying in
direction. Skies should be mostly clear with the dry air
intrusion. Parts of Eastern Colorado may see more of a mix of
clouds and clear skies with higher level moisture swinging along
the Front Range from the next upper trough and Hurricane
Priscilla. Lows should drop into the 40`s and 50s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Friday and Saturday remain forecast to be on the warmer side
with highs in the 80s underneath the upper ridge. That being
said, ensembles have suggested that the upper low moving through
the Great Lakes may be deeper and/or move farther west,
bringing some cooler air to the area. While not much, Friday may
have temperatures max out in the upper 70s depending on how
much the upper low digs. A few showers may be able to move
through on either day for western portions of the area as mid to
high level moisture remains forecast to stream along the Front
Ranges and over Eastern Colorado.

Late Saturday and into Sunday, guidance continues to suggest
that the upper trough over the Western United States will push
east and help bring a surface low and cold front through the
area. However, when and how the upper trough moves through still
shows plenty of spread and some variation on what could happen.
The most likely scenario is that the trough is either to broad
or pushes north, preventing the surface low over the area from
becoming too deep and weakening how strong the cold front is.
With this, wind gusts around 30-50 mph see likely with generally
dry conditions. There seems to only be a 10% chance that either
day would have wind gusts approach 60 mph, so concerns aren`t
too high at this time. Also, the slow progression of the cold
front through the area may allow Sunday to see temperatures warm
into the 80s again.

Early next week, Monday is forecast to start cooler with highs
in the 60s and 70s in the wake of the cold front. Another upper
trough is forecast to move into the Western United States, with
ensembles suggesting it would be fairly broad and slow to
progress. With this, most of the West and the Plains would be on
the edge of the upper troughing, keeping temperatures a little
more moderated. We also would either see a persistent surface
low develop in the region, or additional low pressure systems
depending on if upper shortwaves move through the flow. This
should keep winds a bit breezy with the current forecast
favoring multiple days with gusts around 20-35 mph. Small
chances for showers and storms are also forecast during the late
afternoon and evening hours with these disturbances potentially
moving through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the
evening. IFR-LIFR ceilings and/or fog may develop a few hours on
either side of sunrise (~11-15Z Thu). Stratus/fog, if present,
would lift and dissipate by late morning. Thereafter and
otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail. S-SSE
winds at 10-15 knots (tonight) will weaken and become variable
during the day on Thu.38

MCK: VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the
evening. IFR-LIFR ceilings and/or fog may develop a few hours on
either side of sunrise (~11-15Z Thu). Stratus/fog, if present,
would lift and dissipate by late morning. Thereafter and
otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail. SE winds
at 7-12 knots (tonight) will veer to the S by sunrise (~12Z Thu)
and become variable during the day on Thu.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...DDC