870
FXUS63 KGLD 290801
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
101 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog has been observed for parts of the area and may
  linger until a few hours before sunrise.

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic
  cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, strongest (25-40
  G 45-60 mph) between sunrise and noon.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1217 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

For the early morning hours, rain and snow showers are forecast to
push through the area as a surface low drifts south and east of the
area. There have been a few instances of freezing rain or sleet
mixing in, but thankfully they have been brief. The forecast remains
on track with generally low accumulations of snow and rain. The
front also remains on track to push into the Tri-State border area
around 3am and be through most if not all of the area by sunrise.

For the morning hours, winds are forecast to strengthen with 6-8mb
pressure rises in 3 hours behind the front. Winds around 25-35 mph
with gusts to 45-55 mph remain expected across most of the area.
There could still be a couple of gusts to 60 mph, but the broadening
of the upper wave is forecast to hinder the flow around 850-700mb
from consistently reaching 50 kts. Even if it does, mixing will be
fairly hampered by the cold air pouring into the area behind the
front. With the cold air moving in, temperatures are unlikely to
warm and will likely stay within a few degrees of what they are
around sunrise. The forecast is for temperatures to be in the mid to
upper 20s through the day with slowly clearing skies from west to
east as the system pushes east. That being said, some high level
clouds are forecast to return late in the day.

Tonight is forecast to be one of the colder nights we`ve had so far
with the colder air mass squarely into the area. Winds lightening to
around 5-10 mph should allow most of the area to cool to near
dewpoint in the single digits and lower teens. That being said, the
high level cloud cover may provide just enough insulation for low to
mid teens instead.

Sunday, another upper trough is forecast to dig south through the
Rockies. This one however is forecast to be more west of the area
then the prior system, developing the low pressure further west and
south of the area. This should keep the pressure gradient and winds
weak for most of the area. Those along the Colorado border will
likely still be close enough to have winds around 15-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph. Otherwise, temperatures and conditions shouldn`t
change much as the broad troughing keeps temperatures steady and
allows more high level moisture to move over and keep skies mostly
cloudy.

Sunday night and into Monday, the upper trough is forecast to begin
swinging east towards the area and the Plains. This is forecast to
bring another shot of moisture through the area along with the
forcing from the trough. The question is will the area also see some
lift from the surface low, or will it be too far from the area? The
current forecast has around half an inch to an inch of fluffy snow
falling in the area with another inch or two possible if we get the
early lift. Thankfully, the upper wave and surface low are forecast
to be too broad and keep winds around 15 mph or less which makes
snowfall amounts the only concern. That being said, there is only a
15% chance that snow totals reach or exceed 3 inches anywhere in the
area. The later part of Monday and into the night is forecast to see
the upper trough push east of the area and end precipitation
chances. Skies are forecast to clear short of maybe some more high
clouds as the area remains under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures
should fall again into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Zonal flow to start the period on Tuesday will give way to a
broad trough which digs into the Rockies Tuesday night, remains
somewhat stationary Wednesday and Thursday, then lifts out on
Friday with a ridge building in from the west. Ensembles
showing little more than a few flurries or light snow (less than
a half inch) with the upper trough on Wednesday, otherwise the
period is dry. Do not see any wind associated with this system
and afternoon relative humidity minimums remain well above
critical levels. So what is left is mainly a temperature
forecast. Will begin the period somewhat mild with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday, cooling off
slightly to the upper 30s on Wednesday, then mid 40s on Thursday
and around 50 by Friday with the building ridge. Low
temperatures will be in the teens and 20s, coldest Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings around 500-1500ft are forecast for
through about 15Z as moisture wraps in the area. Pockets of
freezing rain/drizzle and icing are a concern through about 10Z
with some observations in the area showing unknown precipitation
or freezing fog. KMCK has the higher chance to see the icing
conditions. Around 10Z, a cold front is forecast to push through
the area, lowering temperatures further and strengthening winds.
Any precipitation lingering should turn to snow and end by about
13Z. Winds should initially bump up to around 15-20 kts with
gusts around 30 kts as the front passes. Shortly after sunrise,
wind should increase further as they begin to mix out with
surface winds around 25-35 kts and gusts around 40-45 kts. There
is a low chance of a gust to 50 kts before 18Z. The winds should
lower slowly until about 00Z when the next inversion sets up and
cuts the winds off. The system should also have moved far enough
away by that point. VFR conditions and winds around 10 kts are
forecast through the remainder of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK