383
FXUS63 KGLD 041106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing fog, perhaps localized dense freezing fog, is
  forecast along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line
  this morning. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may be slick
  from the fog, and any other precipitation that froze
  overnight.

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of
  the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in
700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area
during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air
advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed
leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low
level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any
precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also
suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this
time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily
across western portions of the area, with the potential for
localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept
along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog
potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more
southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area.
Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon
hours making it a slow warm up for most.

As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds
clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20
mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to
be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically
supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have
nudged temperatures up some. I wasn`t as aggressive as I
normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating
how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for
the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds
move in again for the evening and overnight hours.

Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase
in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show
modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but
with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur
although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however
has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge
temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble
members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than
deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day
remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy
winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25
mph.

Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet
another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a
surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast
area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with
sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM
has the low a little further north which would increase the
magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area
and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast
is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two
with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also
need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as
some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

The long-term will be plagued with northwesterly flow allowing
multiple shortwave troughs to move through the region. The first
wave could move through around 18Z Monday to 6Z Tuesday and a second
one within 24 hours. These shortwaves look to be fairly dry, so
precipitation is not likely. However, if southerly 850 mb advection
taps into more moist air, this could quickly change and will need to
be monitored.

Our next big trough is looking to move into the area some time
between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday noon. There is a better
signal that precipitation will occur with this system as low-level
moisture will have increased. Currently, PoPs are focused on the
northwestern CWA, reaching about 20, while the northwestern 3/4 of
the CWA is sitting around 10 PoPs. Depending on if the precipitation
occurs overnight or during the day will decide if snow or rain will
be the dominate P-type.

Sunday`s high temperatures are a bit uncertain as the exiting trough
will heavily influence them. NBM currently shows the eastern edges
of the CWA remaining in the low to mid 30s while the western half of
the CWA warms into the mid to upper 40s. If the trough exits faster,
temperatures will be in the 40s across the area, but if it`s slower
or takes a more westerly path, cooler temperatures will spread
westward. Beyond Sunday, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
50s while lows will generally cool into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Stratus and localized freezing fog/drizzle; with the freezing
fog/drizzle over the GLD terminal is forecast to continue.
Current thinking is that the freezing fog/drizzle at GLD should
end as drier air moves in from the northwest which should be to
the terminal around 13Z or so as some visibility improvements
have been seen upstream. Confidence isn`t the highest in this as
GLD has been the lowest visibility wise for the night even with
a southwest wind. Ceilings for each terminal are forecast to
improve through the morning. As soon as the stratus breaks and
mixing ensues breezy winds gusting around 25 knots is forecast
until the late afternoon/early evening as winds remain from the
souht-southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg