554
FXUS63 KGLD 050719
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
119 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% chance that thunderstorms may develop over a very
  limited portion of northwest Kansas ~4-7 pm CDT this
  afternoon, mainly in Graham-Gove-Wichita counties where a
  brief severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and/or 60 mph winds is possible. Storm development will
  largely (perhaps entirely) be confined south and east of the
  Goodland county warning area.

- Cooler temps (67-82F) on Sunday, even cooler (55-60F) on
  Monday. A gradual warming trend will follow, mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Today: Southerly winds will continue to weaken from west-east
early this morning.. as a modest surface trough (and rain-cooled
airmass) in eastern CO progresses slowly east into western KS.
Surface high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies will
extend southward into the Central Plains later this morning..
the leading edge of which will manifest as a definitive
northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal passage/
around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun). The SW-NE
oriented effective front will progress southeast toward
southwest and central Kansas this afternoon.. where low-level
convergence in vicinity of the boundary could potentially aid in
convective development during the late afternoon (~22 UTC, ~4
pm CDT). Current and recent high-resolution guidance suggests
that the southeastward advancing effective front.. and
westernmost extent of diurnal convective development.. will be
located along/near a line extending northeastward from Lakin-
Dighton-Wakeeney-Stockton by ~21 UTC. If this is the case,
convective development (if any) would largely, if not entirely,
be confined south and east of the NWS Goodland county warning
area. At worst, a conditional potential for a brief severe storm
may exist over portions of Gove, Graham and Wichita counties
~21-00 UTC (~4-7 pm CDT). Otherwise, expect mostly sunny sunny
skies, a 10-20 mph northerly breeze and noticeably (10-15F)
cooler temperatures.. with highs ranging from the upper 60s
(northwest) to lower 80s (southeast).

Tonight: N winds will shift to the NNE-NE and increase to 20-30
mph around sunset this evening as the `core` of the cooler
airmass over the Northern Plains (characterized by 850 mb temps
around 4C) progresses southward into the Central Plains.. and
low-level cold advection begins in earnest. Shortwave energy
over Oregon/Idaho at 06 UTC this morning will round the base of
a brough upper level trough over the Great Basin (this
afternoon) and eject ENE-NE across Colorado, southern Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle late this evening and overnight. DPVA
assoc/w this feature may assist in the development of scattered
elevated convection along the Colorado Front Range (late this
evening), northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas
(overnight), mainly along/north of I-70 ~06-12Z Mon morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The extended period starts with much cooler temperatures in
wake of the stronger cold front from Sunday night. High
temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area Monday, but if cloud cover can remain
thick enough then high temperatures may struggle to even make it
to the 50s in spots. A surface high is forecast to push into
the area from the north Monday night and into Tuesday morning
which would lead to lighter winds and if clouds can clear out
perhaps some frost concerns may creep into the area as well.
Dependent on how quickly the front moves as well additional rain
chances may ensue Monday night into Tuesday morning as well.

Through the remainder of the week guidance has started trending
towards some ridging over the southern Plains as another system
begins to develop across the western CONUS. If this trend does
continue we could see another warm up towards middle portions of
the week along with another uptick in winds as well. Current
forecast has humidity values falling into the low 20s, if the
speeds of the some low level jets can sync up then anther risk
of some fire weather conditions may become realized.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

GLD: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions
assoc/w scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SSW to W winds
at 10-20 knots this evening may shift to the N overnight.. as a
modest lee trough in CO slowly progresses eastward into
northwest KS. Surface high pressure in the lee of the northern
Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains Sunday
morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a
definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal
passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun).
Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day.
Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots
around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850
mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold
advection will begin in earnest.

MCK: Aside from a small potential for sub-VFR conditions assoc/w
scattered high-based showers this evening.. VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. S winds at 20-30 knots this
evening will decrease to 15-20 knots overnight.. shifting to the
SW, W then N by sunrise. Surface high pressure in the lee of the
northern Rockies will extend southward into the Central Plains
Sunday morning.. the leading edge of which will manifest as a
definitive northerly wind shift /modest effective cold frontal
passage/ around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z Sun).
Northerly winds will prevail through the remainder of the day.
Winds will veer to the NNE-NE and strengthen to ~20-30 knots
around or shortly after sunset (00-02Z Mon).. when the MSLP-850
mb height gradient will further tighten and low-level cold
advection will begin in earnest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent