051
FXUS63 KGLD 221947
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1247 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is again possible tonight across eastern and
  southern areas.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast starting Sunday
  last into early Monday morning.

- Breezy to gusty winds Tuesday in wake of a cold front.

- Colder, but near normal temperatures, expected around
  Thanksgiving. Increasing potential for colder air next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fairly tranquil conditions remain forecast for today across the
area. A pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front associated with a
clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to move
through the area. We have seen some moisture advection this
morning with dew points rising into the low to mid 40s across
the area. This will be short lived however as with the trough
and the cold front drier air in the low to mid 30 dew points
will then move into the area shunting out the higher dew points.
Winds this evening will become light and variable as the trough
moves through the area leading to winds again becoming west-
southwesterly. Moisture advection will again occur as a more
organized trough moves towards the area from the southwest. If
the moisture advection can occur sooner (before sunrise) then
stratus and fog (perhaps dense) would be more likely for
southern portions of the area. If the moisture advection occurs
later (mid morning Sunday) then just an increase in cloud cover
would occur which is what most deterministic guidance is
suggesting at this time which seems reasonable as this system is
currently moving into Arizona and New Mexico. At the minimum
for fog potential, due to the light and variable winds this
evening and overnight and low dew point depressions will add in
some patchy fog wording into the forecast mainly for locations
along and east of a McCook to Leoti line. Confidence in dense
fog at this time is only around 10% with confidence in fog
formation in general around 20-30%.

Sunday, breezy conditions with winds gusting 20-35 mph are currently
forecast as the trough approaches. Rain chances will increase
through the afternoon as an arc of showers moves southwest to
northeast through the area with a developing low. Some isolated
rumbles of thunder may be possible across southeastern portions of
the area where dew points will be higher leading to some minimal
amounts of MUCAPE. I did keep the rain chances down a little bit as
15Z RAP13 cross sections did show some dry air near 850-750mb layer
that may make the showers a bit more spotty or have virga be a bit
more prevalent early on. Gusty winds may occur with the showers or
virga with some sporadic gusts of 35-45 mph. Light rain will then
continue to linger through the evening hours as cyclogenesis
occurs. Due to the moist low levels will need to keep an eye on
patchy fog potential where rain is not ongoing. Rain is forecast
to continue through the morning hours on Monday as the back end
of the low moves through the area. Dew points remaining in the
mid to upper 30s should help keep the precipitation all rain
but if some cooling can occur then some spotty snowflakes could
occur across the higher elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson
county.

Monday, light showers and/or drizzle may continue through the day
before ending west to east starting during the mid to late morning
hours as small amount so omega remain in the low levels
according to the 15Z RAP13 as high temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, another clipper system across
the northern Plains will bring a cold front through the area.
Gusty to perhaps strong winds look to occur with and behind the
front. GEFS Mean spread does show a large area of where the
clipper system could trek. If it does track further to the south
then the winds would end up stronger. This front does look to
remain dry as well. Highs for the day are forecast in the 40s
with the current timing of the front looking to move through
during the late morning hours. Continued cold air advection is
forecast to continue into the area with a surface high in wake
of the front leading to temperatures falling into the low to
mid teens.

Mid week, including for the Thanksgiving holiday at this time does
look to be more tranquil as well with ridging over the western
CONUS. If the ridge can amplify more then temperatures may need
to be warmed up a few degrees but with the amplitude of the
ridge currently near normal to slightly below normal
temperatures are currently forecast with the cooler air mass
due to the front on Tuesday remaining in place.

Late week into next weekend guidance continues to suggest a stronger
cold front may move through the area leading to a period of below to
well below normal temperatures. There still remains a ton of
spread with the timing of this front ranging anywhere from a
Friday evening passage to Sunday evening. Compared to 24 hours
ago the majority of ensemble members do support the stronger
front moving through the area. The main takeaway is there is an
increasing signal for colder air but exactly how cold is still
being worked out and if there will be any precipitation chances
during this time. Those with livestock interests may want to
start thinking about precautions to ensure that livestock is
protected from perhaps the coldest air of the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 950 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. The
exception may be if moisture advection can occur quicker Sunday
morning then some fog or stratus may occur for each terminal but
confidence is only around 10-20% in that at this time. Winds are
forecast to remain from the northwest with some gusts around
20-22kts especially at GLD. Backing of the winds will then
occur overnight to more of a west-southwest direction.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg