893
FXUS62 KGSP 151758
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area for the next several days as
temperatures warm through the weekend. A series of weak fronts
moving over the area during the first half of next week will bring
periodic shower chances, mainly to the mountains. A stronger cold
front may bring better chances of rain late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Saturday: Copious cirrus, along with some stratocu
across the mountains, will continue through the afternoon. Gusty SW
winds continue outside of the mountains with some gusty high
elevation winds across the mountains.

A cold front approaches from the NW tonight bringing increased
stratocu for the mountains during the evening and some upslope flow
rain showers as well. Best chances will be along the TN border, but
some will move across the rest of the mountains as well. Expect
mainly cirrus outside of the mountains but some stratocu will move
out across the area. No significant precip chances outside of the
mountains though. Very gusty winds develop across the higher
elevations with the strongest winds across the northern mountains.
Occasional wind gusts to 50 mph are expected, so have gone with a
Wind Advisory for all of Avery County and above 3500 ft for Mitchell
and Yancey. There will be some gusts to 50 across the central and
southern mountains, but these should be limited to elevations above
5000 feet. That said, it will be gusty in the NW/SE oriented
valleys, although below advisory level. Winds remain gusty outside
of the mountains as well, but generally below 30 mph. Lows will be
around 15 degrees above normal.

Mountain rain showers taper off quickly during the morning as the
low level moisture dries up behind the front. Low clouds, along with
the cirrus, will scatter out as well. The very gusty winds continue
through the morning then slowly diminish through the afternoon, with
directions shifting to the NW outside of the mountains. Cooler air
moves into the mountains but is delayed elsewhere. The air mass does
become very dry behind the front. This will cause RH values to drop
to critical levels outside of the mountains. This combined with the
gusty winds will lead to increased fire danger for the NC foothills
and Piedmont. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1112 AM Saturday: A deep northern stream trough will continue
to lift across the Mid-Atlantic and New England through the period
while a southern stream trough ejects out of the Desert Southwest
and through the Four Corners. A surface cold front will have pushed
across the area by tomorrow night with a drier and cooler airmass
filtering across the region. Temperatures make a brief return to
near seasonal normals on Monday with the main focus being potential
fire weather concerns as dewpoints mix out. The mixed boundary layer
won`t be exceptionally deep with mixing to around 900mb, but
profiles are quite dry. This will support relative humidity values
falling below critical thresholds into the teens to low 20s during
the afternoon. Thankfully, the arrival of surface high pressure and
weak flow through the mixed layer will preclude a threat for gusty
winds and greater fire danger. That being said, conditions will
still be solid for at least some degree of fire concerns and a fire
danger statement may eventually be needed. By Tuesday, the
previously mentioned southern stream trough will have deamplified as
it lifts across the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Guidance
continues to trend farther north with this feature with any weak
forcing for ascent displaced across the Ohio Valley. A few stray
showers may graze the mountains, but the forecast remains otherwise
dry as the airmass already begins to modify.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1127 AM Saturday: The pattern becomes more amplified by mid
week as a potent trough digs across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico. Farther downstream, upper ridging becomes centered
over the Gulf with broad zonal flow draped from the Tennessee Valley
into the Southern Appalachians. Guidance depicts a stalled
baroclinic zone meandering in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley as
moist southwest flow extends from the Southern Plains. There will
likely be an area of showers and some convection along this
boundary, but indications are that much of the activity will remain
north of the area through late week. The exception will be the
potential for some degree of showers to scrape along the mountains,
but confidence as to where the boundary resides and focuses activity
remains to be seen at this time. Eventually, the upstream trough
ejects across the Southern Plains and lifts through the Deep South
towards the Appalachians. Timing and evolution of the trough
ejection also remains uncertain with a large spread of solutions
depicted in guidance and their respective ensemble members.
Ultimately, rain chances may return Friday into the start of the
weekend but confidence remains low at this time until guidance can
come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious cirrus across the area and mainly
low VFR stratocu across the mountains continues through the
afternoon. Gusty SW wind outside of the mountains with lighter S
wind for KAVL this afternoon as well. The gusty winds continue
overnight outside of the mountains with KAVL becoming NNW and gusty.
LLWS also develops during the evening and some of the overnight as
low level winds increase. The LLWS lingers longer at KAVL before the
wind turns more NW in line with the valley during the day Sunday.
Low VFR cigs develop at KAVL as a cold front crosses the area. Can`t
rule out a brief rain shower toward daybreak, but better chances
west and north of the airfield. The low VFR scatters out by noon but
the very gusty NNW wind continues. Elsewhere, the wind turns WNW
near daybreak then NW by noon with gusty conditions continuing. Some
of the VFR stratocu will spill out of the mountains, but mainly
cirrus level cigs with scattering clouds for the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry with diminishing winds on Monday. A low pressure system
may bring rain showers and associated restrictions Tuesday, possibly
lingering into Wednesday. Dry high pressure returns Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With a very dry air mass moving in behind a departing cold front
Sunday, RH values are expected to drop to 25% or lower across the NC
foothills and Piedmont. This combined with gusty winds will create
Increased Fire Danger conditions across those areas. With cooler
temps across the NC mountains, RH doesn`t fall as far even though
winds will be stronger. The low RH and gusty winds will also be seen
across the Upstate and NE GA, but not quite to the level for
Increased Fire Danger, at least for now. This will need to be
monitored as a Fire Danger Statement may still be needed for those
areas.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday for
     NCZ033-049-050.
     Increased Fire Danger from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL/TW
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...