372
FXUS62 KGSP 031750
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1250 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across
the region through the end of the week. A passing cold front
will bring rain showers to the area over the weekend. Another,
stronger, front will cross the area late Sunday, ushering in much
colder temperatures for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of Noon EST Monday: Sfc/upper low now near the Outer Banks
will move off into the Atlantic by this evening. A flat upper
ridge and attendant sfc anticyclone will fill in behind it across
the Southeast US tonight/Tuesday. Brisk NW flow will continue
in the mid to upper levels thru early Tue morning until the
pattern flattens out and the afternoon will be rather breezy. A
relatively low altitude subsidence inversion with the incoming
high suggests moisture will be too shallow in the upslope layer
to expect appreciable cloud cover east of the mountain spine;
mostly clear skies thus are expected tonight/Tuesday even in the
mountains. Likewise, mixing will be atypically shallow over the
mountains for a NW flow event, and winds/gusts look to stay below
advisory criteria. Reasonably good radiative cooling conditions
are expected in lower elevations and the Piedmont. As previous
shift noted, incoming airmass is of a southern stream nature and
thus not especially cold. Frost appears likely in some areas
of the mountains/foothills, but the growing season has ended
there. Patchy frost is mentioned in a few spots in the normally
colder river valleys of the Piedmont but by and large temps will
be a tad too warm.

Under plentiful sunshine and lighter winds Tuesday, temps rise
slightly above normal in the Piedmont, a degree or two warmer
than Monday in many spots. The mountain valleys should see a more
notable rebound, with temps surging back into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EST Monday: Quiet weather will continue thru the
short term. An upper-level shortwave trough and associated sfc
low will track east across the Great Lakes Wednesday, deepening as
it reaches New England early Thursday. This passing low combined
with lingering high pressure over the Deep South will increase the
pressure gradient atop the forecast area, with breezy westerly
winds expected Wednesday. Some downslope component to the winds
will help temps to top out a few degrees above normal under sunny
skies. A dry cold front will push thru Wednesday night, bringing
mainly a wind shift out of the north and temps back down closer
to normal for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Monday: A pattern change is in the model
consensus forecast for the medium range. An upper trough will
eject out of the Rockies and quickly track east to the East Coast
by 12z Saturday. The 12z GFS has come in a little deeper with
the trough and taps into more Gulf moisture with an associated
cold front across the Lower MS Valley. The 00z ECMWF is shallower
and a little faster with the trough and produces almost no QPF
across the Southeast, keeping precip further north. In any case,
given the fast speed of this system, precip will likely be a quick
shot of rain showers mainly Friday night. Temps will continue to
be slightly above normal thru Saturday, as the front will be weak.

From there, the models are in pretty good agreement on a deep
trough digging thru the central CONUS over the weekend, becoming
a full-latitudinal longwave trough over the eastern CONUS by
Monday. A strong cold front will likely push thru Sunday night,
bringing a brief chance of some NW flow rain and snow showers
along the TN border. Temps will fall to well-below normal Monday
behind the front, with highs staying the 50s east of the mountains
despite sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected at all TAF terminals. Low clouds
remain banked on the west side of the Appalachians but these should
dissipate with time and do not look to make it to KAVL. KCLT is
seeing some FEW low VFR cumulus in the more humid airmass to the S
and E but the approaches should remain SKC thru tonight. Valley fog
likely in SW NC but not at KAVL. Breezy northerly winds, seemingly
being held to NW or WNW in some spots owing to lee troughing this
aftn, favoring a more northerly direction by early Tue, then likely
flipping to SW Tue aftn.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through at least Thu
night. Mountain valley fog/low stratus possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JCW
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JCW