496
FXUS62 KGSP 021742
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1242 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in chilly and dry conditions Wednesday
into Thursday. Unseasonably cold and unsettled weather is expected
Friday as another system brings more precipitation to the area. This
system may linger into part of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Gradual decrease in cloud cover through this evening.

2) Isolated showers will linger along the Tennessee border into
early evening.

3) Dry and cold conditions should return tonight.

The axis of an upper-level trough will swing east of the area by
early evening, with deep-layer drying overspreading the forecast
area from the west. Lingering low-level moisture will bank up
against the mountains along the TN border well into tonight,
which should be too shallow for anything more than a few flurries
early this evening. Cannot rule out some freezing fog/rime ice
in the highest elevations as temps drop into the 20s. In the
lower mountain valleys, with clearing skies and very moist ground
from earlier rainfall, some fog will likely develop in the usual
locations. Meanwhile, low clouds may not completely scatter out
across the far southern and eastern parts of the forecast area
before sunset. Guidance agrees on some of this stratocu expanding
back north and west across the Lakelands and NE GA overnight,
with moisture trapped under a low-level inversion. Winds should
hold up thru most of the night in the mountains enough to limit
fog potential.  Temps will fall into the 20s across most of the
area, except lower 30s under more cloud cover in the Lakelands.

Wednesday looks like a nice weather day, with the center of cool
and dry high pressure settling in from the west. Temps will top
out about 5 to 10 degrees below normal under mostly sunny skies
and light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EST Tuesday: Dry high pressure settles in over the
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Lows and highs will be around 5
degrees below normal.

A low pressure system then moves east along the Gulf Coast Thursday
night and jumps to the Carolina coast late in the day on Friday. The
high over the area is weak with the center moving off shore through
the period. The developing cold air damming is weak as well. That
said, there is enough cold air at onset for the precip to begin as a
rain/snow mix across the mountains into the NC Piedmont. Some sleet
may mix in as well. A warm nose develops on Friday changing the
precip to all rain outside of the mountains, and a rain/freezing rain
mix over the mountains and Blue Ridge where enough low level cold
air lingers. As the low moves east to the Carolina coast, the
thermal profiles turn to more of a rain/snow sounding with warming
low levels and cooling mid levels.

As usual, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the thermal
profiles, but the guidance does appear to be in decent agreement
regarding precip timing. For now, it appears that any snow/sleet
outside of the mountains will be very light, with the potential
freezing mix across the mountains to be in the advisory range. Of
course, this will continue to be monitored. Lows Thu nite look to be
near to slightly below normal, with highs Friday around 15 degrees
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EST Tue: Precip should taper off Friday night into
Saturday as the low moves out into the Atlantic taking the moisture
with it. There may be enough lingering moisture form some elevation
dependent rain/snow across the mountains during this time, but any
additional accumulation remains uncertain. Lows will be near normal
with highs around 5 degrees below normal.

The operational guidance has trended toward yet another Gulf low and
weak cold air damming high to affect the area Sunday into Monday,
instead of a weak fast moving Clipper-type low. Right now, the
forecast thermal profiles and forecast soundings look less
complicated with a rain/snow look, mainly across the mountains with
some guidance showing more snow and others showing more rain. Have
followed this trend with the forecast, but as usual, stay tuned as
it will likely changes. The forecast looks dry for Tuesday.

Lows near normal Sunday fall to around 5 degrees below normal by
Tuesday. Highs around 5 degrees below normal Sunday drop a few
degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: LIFR to IFR cigs will gradually scatter out
and lift to VFR before sunset this aftn/early evening. Confidence
is moderate on the timing, as guidance has tended to be too quick
to improve cigs. With wind picking up and dry air working in, vsbys
should improve to VFR within an hour or so of the 18z TAF start
time. Skies mostly clear out this evening, except in the western
Upstate, where MVFR cigs may re-develop/expand back north to at
least KAND, but also may briefly reach KGMU/KGSP overnight. At
KAVL, up-valley flow will likely keep MVFR to IFR cigs well into
the night. They may scatter out and allow for LIFR cigs and/or
some fog before daybreak Wednesday, but confidence remains
low. Will continue to show some MVFR vsby with sct LIFR-level
clouds. Conditions should improve to VFR at all sites by late
morning WEdnesday. Winds will favor a N/NW direction thru tonight,
then become light and variable across the area Wednesday morning
as the center of high pressure settles in.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions expected to persist through Wednesday
and the first part of Thursday.  Rain expected to return Thursday
night thru Friday as the next system arrives.  Rain and associated
flight restrictions could continue into the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK