994
FXUS64 KHUN 190448
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 743 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The northward moving and outflow driven showers and thunderstorms
have shifted north of the immediate area. CAMS suggest a continued
decline in activity after sunset. Dew points remain in the middle to
upper 70s this evening, and this will equate to warm overnight. Low
clouds are expected to redevelop overnight with patchy fog as well,
especially in river valley locations. Overnight low temperatures
will only dip near or just below current dew points into the lower
to middle 70s. Southwesterly low level flow will advect the pool of
2-2.3 inch PWs over the western Gulf Coast states. This will promote
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with
the aid of a shear/convergence zone at 5h just south of the westerlies
across the central/northern Plains into the Great Lakes and OH
Valley region. Like Friday, the main hazard will be heavy downpours
and possibly excessive rainfall in a few locations. Temperatures
will be stunted in the 80s for most areas on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 743 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The reservoir of high PWs will remain in place through Sunday.
MCSs dropping southeast from the Great Lakes and Corn Belt will
enter eastern KY and TN during the afternoon. We will have to
monitor any strong outflows surging southwest from these clusters,
but at this time, it appears they will remain to our northeast.
On Monday as the mid and upper level ridge amplifies along and
west of the MS River, there could be a tendency for the MCS
activity to move more due to south which could clip our eastern
counties. Thus, higher NBM PoPs are indicated the next few days in
our eastern counties. With the building ridge, temperatures will
warm into the lower 90s Sunday and Monday afternoon with the
exception being upper 80s to around 90 in our eastern counties and
higher plateau areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 743 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Mid and upper level heights will increase with the 5h anticyclone
building over the mid South Wednesday into Friday. This will
stunt thunderstorm activity further mainly to our south along the
Gulf Coast associated with another westward moving wave. However,
ridge rider MCSs/MCVs are indicated in the models that may rotate
southwest through the Piedmont and lower Appalachians which could
enter eastern AL at times next week. Thus, low chances will exist
each day, mainly in our eastern forecast area. Typical summertime
heat is expected as well which will become persistent with time.
High temperatures will consistently reach the lower to middle 90s,
with lows in the lower 70s east to middle 70s west. Heat index
values will likely reach or possibly exceed 105F in our central
and western counties, and in the upper 90s to lower 100s in our
eastern counties. Heat Risk levels of 2-3 are indicated all week
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Low clouds through the night will likely produce ceilings that
fluctuate from VFR to MVFR. Come day break, a solid MVFR cloud
deck will push in yielding lower ceilings through mid day.
Ceilings will improve slightly to VFR by 18Z and give way to
scattered VCTS through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that move directly over the terminals will have the
ability to briefly lower ceilings and visibilities. Storms will
wane as the sun sets with VFR conditions developing through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAD